Gold prices declined in the European market on Tuesday, extending losses for the second consecutive day and moving further away from a four-week high. This comes amid ongoing correction and profit-taking, coupled with pressure from a rising U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports have stalled talks between the two nations. This adds difficulty to convening the second round of peace negotiations in Pakistan before the ceasefire agreement expires tomorrow, Wednesday.

Price Overview

- Gold Prices Today: Gold metal prices fell by approximately 1.0% to ($4,772.91), from an opening level of ($4,820.41), and recorded a high of ($4,833.35).

- Upon price settlement on Friday, gold prices lost about 0.25% due to correction and profit-taking from a four-week high of $4,890.78 per ounce.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.25% on Tuesday, resuming the gains that had temporarily paused in the previous session, reflecting the renewed ascent of the American currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is well known, the rise in the U.S. dollar makes dollar-priced gold bullion less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

This rise is driven by renewed safe-haven buying of the U.S. dollar amid the state of deadlock surrounding the second round of peace negotiations scheduled to be held in Islamabad.

Iranian War Updates

- The U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, has not yet arrived in Pakistan to participate in the new round of peace negotiations.

- The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced it has "no plans" at this moment to participate in this round.

- International and regional parties are pressuring Tehran to join the peace negotiations before the two-week ceasefire expires tomorrow, Wednesday.

Global Oil Prices

Global oil prices rose by approximately 1% on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive day amid renewed fears of supply disruptions from the Arabian Gulf region, particularly following the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

The rise in global oil prices renews concerns over accelerating inflation, which could prompt global central banks to raise interest rates in the near term—a sharp pivot from pre-war expectations of rate cuts or prolonged pauses.

U.S. Interest Rates

- Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, will testify before lawmakers at a Senate hearing on Tuesday, stating he is "committed to ensuring the full independence of monetary policy."

- According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool: the probability of keeping U.S. interest rates unchanged at the April meeting is stable at 99%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 1%.

- Investors are closely following the release of more U.S. economic data to re-price these probabilities.

Gold Performance Expectations

Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com, said: The next news is whether the talks will be held in Islamabad, and if they are, whether the ceasefire will be extended or, better yet, a peace agreement reached.

Rodda added: If these things happen, gold is likely to receive strong support given the drop in oil prices; if they do not, we could see some volatility return to the market.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, decreased on Monday by 0.86 metric tons, bringing the total down to 1,059.76 metric tons from 1,060.62 metric tons (which was the highest level since March 19).

The British pound declined in the European market on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, resuming its losses against the U.S. dollar and moving away from two-month highs due to correction and profit-taking. This comes as the American currency rises amid the uncertainty surrounding the second round of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran scheduled in Pakistan.

To re-price the existing probabilities regarding the path of British interest rates throughout this year, investors are awaiting the release of significant UK labor market data later today.

Price Overview

- British Pound Exchange Rate Today: The pound fell against the dollar by 0.15% to ($1.3515), from an opening price of ($1.3534), and recorded a high of ($1.3539).

- On Monday, the pound achieved a 0.1% increase against the dollar, resuming gains that had paused for three days during correction and profit-taking from a two-month high of $1.3600.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday by 0.1%, resuming the gains that had temporarily paused in the previous session, reflecting the renewed ascent of the American currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

This rise stems from renewed safe-haven buying of the U.S. dollar given the state of uncertainty surrounding the second round of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, set to be held in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.

Iranian War Updates

- U.S. President Donald Trump announced the dispatch of a high-level delegation led by Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan to participate in the new round of peace negotiations.

- The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that it has "no plans" at this moment to participate in this round.

- Several international and regional parties are pressuring Tehran to participate in the peace negotiations before the two-week ceasefire agreement expires tomorrow, Wednesday.

British Interest Rates

- The Bank of England warned following its last meeting that inflation will rise in the near term as a result of higher energy prices caused by the Iranian war.

- The market pricing of the probability of the Bank of England raising British interest rates at the April meeting is stable around 20%.

UK Labor Market

To re-price the above probabilities, investors are awaiting significant labor market data from the United Kingdom later today, including March unemployment benefit claims, the unemployment rate, and average earnings for February.

British Pound Performance Expectations

If the UK labor market data comes in less aggressive than expected, the probability of a British interest rate hike in April will decline, leading to further downward pressure on the pound.

The New Zealand dollar rose in the Asian market on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, maintaining its gains for the second consecutive day against its American counterpart and approaching its highest level in five weeks following the release of higher-than-expected inflation data in New Zealand.

This data illustrates escalating inflationary pressures on monetary policymakers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), strengthening the probability of a New Zealand interest rate hike next May.

Price Overview

- New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate Today: The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S. dollar by 0.65% to (0.5921), from an opening price of (0.5883), and recorded a low of (0.5882).

- The New Zealand dollar ended Monday's trading up by approximately 0.2% against the U.S. dollar, resuming gains that had paused for two days due to correction and profit-taking from a five-week high of 59.29 cents.

Inflation in New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand stated on Wednesday that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 3.1% increase in the first quarter of 2026, higher than market expectations of a 2.9% rise, and matching the 3.1% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

On a quarterly basis, the CPI rose by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2026, up from a 0.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing market expectations of a 0.8% rise.

This data shows that New Zealand's annual inflation rate has exceeded the RBNZ’s medium-term target range of 1% to 3% for the second consecutive quarter.

Undoubtedly, the escalating inflationary pressures on RBNZ policymakers strongly open the door for monetary normalization and interest rate hikes in the near term.

New Zealand Interest Rates

- RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated after the April 8 meeting: If we observe that medium-term inflation is starting to rise, we will take decisive action, and that means raising interest rates. The balance of risks regarding inflation has changed, and there are greater risks to the upside.

- Following the above data, the market pricing of the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the May 27 meeting rose from 45% to 60%.

- The pricing of the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting rose to over 90%, with expectations that this year will see three interest rate increases.

- To re-price these probabilities, investors await the release of several significant economic reports from New Zealand regarding inflation, unemployment, and economic growth over the coming period.

Chicago wheat futures rose on Monday, supported by drought conditions in U.S. growing regions and fears of a collapse in the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

Corn and soybeans also received support from war-related concerns, but faced pressure from expectations of an accelerating pace of U.S. planting.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 1.2% to $6.06 3/4 per bushel by 11:18 GMT, following a strong performance last week. Corn rose 0.06% to $4.48 3/4 per bushel, while soybeans remained unchanged at $11.67 1/4 per bushel.

Oil prices also rose after the United States announced it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to break the naval blockade, while Iran stated it would retaliate.

Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager at StoneX, said: “Wheat is rising in early trading as the war risk premium returns to the market.”

He added: “As we saw last week, the focus remains on poor crop conditions in the United States and drought in the Western Plains threatening hard red winter wheat, though recent forecasts suggest some hopes for rainfall.”

He noted that soybeans are also receiving support from the risks of war between Iran and the United States.

Argus analysts said in a note: “U.S. weather remains the key factor under close observation, as the lack of rain in winter wheat areas has long been affecting production potential.”

However, gains for soybeans were limited by expectations that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) might report a rapid pace for soybean planting in its U.S. crop progress report due later on Monday.

Ammermann said: “There are expectations that U.S. farmers are prioritizing planting soybeans first, especially in southern states, meaning today’s planting pace could be higher than usual.”

He added: “Corn remains in a mixed position, and the market seems to be largely ignoring the impact of crude oil for now. Additionally, warm weather in the U.S. Midwest suggests expectations for an accelerating pace of corn planting in the coming weeks.”