When a major oil shock occurs, most Americans first notice it at the gas pump.

This is precisely what is happening now. Since the February 28 attack on Iran and the subsequent disruption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, gasoline and diesel prices in the United States have risen sharply. Food prices have also begun a gradual climb as transportation costs ripple through supply chains. The March inflation report came in significantly higher than expected.

For many Americans, the story seems to end there: higher prices, but functioning supply chains.

Globally, however, this is not just a price crisis; it is already transforming into a supply crisis.

A global choke point under pressure

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy artery. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption—nearly 20 million barrels per day—passes through this narrow waterway. It is also a primary route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, particularly from Qatar.

When traffic through Hormuz is disrupted, the impact is immediate—not just because of the volume of flow, but due to the lack of realistic alternatives. Oil tankers cannot simply reroute without massive increases in time, cost, and logistical complexity; in some cases, they cannot reroute at all.

The result is what we are witnessing now: a sharp repricing of risk in global energy markets, followed by actual physical supply tightening.

Outside the U.S.: The impact is already more severe

The United States enjoys a degree of protection as a major oil producer with relatively limited reliance on Gulf imports. Most of the world, however, does not have this buffer.

In import-dependent economies, pressures are already surfacing.

In South and Southeast Asia, fuel shipment delays and rising import costs are affecting supply availability. About 90% of India’s LPG imports—which millions of households rely on for cooking—depend on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The current disruption has led to an internal supply crisis, forcing the government to impose a gas rationing system for households.

Agriculture is another pressure point. The production and trade of fertilizers are closely linked to natural gas and petrochemical inputs. Roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade, and a large portion of the sulfur and ammonia used in phosphate fertilizers, passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

More than 40% of India’s fertilizer imports come from the Middle East. With the agricultural monsoon season approaching, farmers in regions like Punjab and Haryana have rushed to buy out of fear of shortages. If fertilizer supplies do not stabilize by May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a direct threat to crop yields.

Europe: A different but real fragility

Europe’s fragility looks different but is no less dangerous. While it has reduced its reliance on Russian oil since 2022, it remains dependent on global markets for refined products. Previously, about half of Europe’s jet fuel imports came from the Middle East.

The IEA has warned that Europe could face a severe jet fuel shortage by June. Several airlines have already begun prioritizing international flights over domestic and regional routes to conserve dwindling stockpiles.

East Asia: The problem of scale and dependence

In Northeast Asia, the problem lies in scale and dependence. Data confirms that Japan receives about 11% and South Korea about 12% of the total oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Reliance on Gulf oil and gas remains extremely high in both countries.

Companies there have moved to secure alternative sources and utilize reserves, but these measures are costly and reveal the limited alternatives available in the global system.

The crisis spreads to manufacturing

In the next stages of the value chain, effects extend to the manufacturing sector. Prices for petrochemical materials derived from oil and gas are rising, squeezing industries such as plastics and textiles.

In export-oriented economies, this leads to production slowdowns, compressed profit margins, and higher costs for global buyers.

In developing economies, the risks are even more acute. Many lack the fiscal flexibility, reserves, or infrastructure needed to absorb prolonged disruptions. Rapidly increasing energy costs can quickly lead to currency pressure, declining industrial output, and, in some cases, actual commodity shortages.

Why has the U.S. survived so far?

The relative stability in the U.S. stems from two factors: production and geography.

Domestic oil production remains near record levels, and U.S. reliance on Gulf imports is lower than many other nations, providing a buffer against physical supply disruptions. Furthermore, the U.S. possesses one of the world's most complex and sophisticated refining systems, allowing it to meet a large portion of domestic demand for gasoline and diesel.

However, a "buffer" does not mean "immunity."

Oil is priced globally. When a disruption pulls—or even threatens to pull—millions of barrels per day from the market, prices rise worldwide. This is why U.S. consumers are already seeing higher fuel prices. Notably, diesel prices are rising faster than gasoline for structural reasons; diesel is the backbone of shipping, transportation, agriculture, and industry, and its supply is often more limited. When diesel moves, the entire economy follows.

The next phase has not yet begun

What the U.S. is experiencing now—rising fuel prices and the onset of inflation—is typically the first stage of a supply shock.

Globally, the second stage has already begun: supply tightening and operational disruption.

As the crisis persists, the next stage becomes harder to avoid. Refineries may begin scaling back production as margins decline and crude becomes harder to source. Petroleum product markets will tighten further. Strategic reserves can help, but they are only a temporary fix.

Ultimately, the system adjusts through what is known as "demand destruction," where high prices force consumers and businesses to cut consumption, leading to a slowdown in economic activity. This eventually lowers prices, but at a clear economic cost.

The Big Picture

It is easy to view the current situation through a domestic lens: higher gas prices, extra pressure on food costs, and a general sense of rising expenses.

But this perspective ignores the broader reality.

In many parts of the world, this is no longer just an inflation crisis; it has become a supply chain disruption affecting fuel, food production, manufacturing, and transport.

The United States has been more insulated so far, but history suggests this rarely lasts. Additional repercussions are likely to emerge later. Energy shocks are rarely contained within a single border; they transmit through global trade, pricing, and supply chains before manifesting more clearly within domestic economies.

What Americans are experiencing today is only the early stage, while the rest of the world is living through much more advanced phases of the crisis.

Wall Street rose and major indices continued their climb on Friday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new record highs, driven by the momentum of their strongest monthly performance in years.

Sentiment was bolstered by a report from Iranian state media stating that Tehran sent its latest negotiation proposals to the United States via Pakistani mediators on Thursday.

Friday's session concludes a busy week of Big Tech earnings announcements and critical economic data. Analysts now expect Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 to grow by 27.8%—the fastest rate since Q4 2021—compared to a 16.1% forecast last week, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data.

Investors are watching to see if this rally will persist as markets enter May, which historically marks the beginning of a weaker six-month period for stocks. From 1945 through April 2026, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of approximately 2% between May and October, compared to an average of 7% between November and April, according to Fidelity data.

While earnings results were largely robust, some investors expressed concern over the massive spending wave by tech companies on Artificial Intelligence. Doubts also emerged regarding the sustainability of certain software business models, prompting a re-evaluation of investment portfolios.

Peter Vanderlee, portfolio manager at ClearBridge Investments, noted: "The disruptive potential of AI across software, services, the financial sector, and other industries has created uncertainty about the long-term durability and value of some business models."

Economic data released Thursday also sparked concerns that the equity buying spree might be due for a correction. Although U.S. economic growth regained momentum in the first quarter, consumer spending—the main engine of the economy—slowed, while the personal saving rate declined, suggesting households utilized savings to support spending.

Furthermore, this data reflects only one month of disruptions resulting from the Middle East war. With shipping halted through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could become a heavier burden, especially as support from Q1 tax refunds fades.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity stabilized in April, but supplier delivery performance deteriorated as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove raw material and input prices to a four-year high.

At 09:54 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 148.14 points, or 0.30%, to 49,800.28. The S&P 500 added 40.71 points, or 0.56%, to 7,249.72, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 193.21 points, or 0.78%, to 25,085.52—setting new record highs for both indices.

Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were in the green, with Information Technology leading the gains, up 1.5%.

The S&P 500 concluded April with its largest monthly gain since November 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded its best monthly performance since April 2020. The Dow achieved its strongest monthly rise since November 2024.

Gains driven by strong Apple outlook

Apple shares jumped 4.8% after strong demand for its flagship iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo led to projections of robust sales for the third fiscal quarter.

In the energy sector, ExxonMobil and Chevron reported quarterly profits that exceeded expectations, though their shares remained flat.

Software companies rose after Atlassian raised its annual forecast, causing its stock to surge 27.7%. Shares of Salesforce, ServiceNow, Datadog, and Workday also rose between 1.8% and 5.8%.

Conversely, gaming platform Roblox saw its shares drop 18.4% after cutting its annual revenue forecast, while Reddit rose 7.8% following an optimistic quarterly revenue outlook.

Bitcoin dropped to the $75,000 level, at a time when Eric Trump predicted the digital currency would reach $1 million in the future.

Eric Trump presented an intensely optimistic vision for Bitcoin during his speech at the Bitcoin 2026 Conference, stating that the currency is entering its "greatest era" and affirming his strong conviction that the price will hit $1 million. These remarks came as Bitcoin’s price retreated to approximately $75,000, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady.

A Turning Point for Bitcoin?

Trump noted that the past six months represented a critical turning point for the currency, explaining that the crypto market structure is shifting with increasing institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin financing.

He cited the emergence of new financial products, such as Bitcoin-backed mortgages—including programs from companies like Better and Coinbase—as evidence of the digital currency's integration into the traditional financial system.

The highlight of his comments was the prediction that Bitcoin would one day reach $1 million per coin. While he did not provide a precise timeframe, he suggested this could happen by 2030 or 2031, aligning with views that categorize Bitcoin as a scarce asset.

The Reality: Price Pressures

Despite these positive forecasts, current reality points to downward pressure. Data from CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin's price falling from $78,230 to $75,100 over the past week, briefly dipping to the $75,000 mark before partially recovering.

This decline is attributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.

In the near term, the price faces resistance at $76,400, followed by a key level at $77,200. If these levels are breached, it could trend toward $78,000. Conversely, failure to break through could see it drop below $75,000 again, potentially reaching $73,500.

Technical Analysis Indicates Downward Trend

Technical indicators are also flashing negative signals. The 13-day Bull/Bear Power indicator showed a reading of -141, placing it in sell territory and reflecting seller dominance in the market.

Additionally, the MACD (12, 26) recorded a level of -150.3, indicating that the 12-day exponential moving average is declining faster than the 26-day average, which reinforces the current bearish trend.

Institutional Adoption vs. Short-Term Volatility

Eric Trump’s statements reflect a clear gap between long-term optimism and current market realities. On one hand, Bitcoin continues to see structural growth driven by increasing institutional adoption, with ETFs seeing billions of dollars in inflows and the currency integrating further into traditional finance.

On the other hand, tight financial conditions continue to weigh on short-term performance, meaning that achieving the $1 million target will require overcoming these immediate challenges while maintaining the momentum of institutional adoption.

Oil prices stabilized on Friday but remained on track for weekly gains as diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran stalled. Tehran continues its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. Navy maintains restrictions on Iranian oil exports.

Brent crude futures for July delivery rose by 53 cents, or 0.5%, to $110.93 per barrel by 11:24 GMT. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by 56 cents, or 0.5%, to $104.51 per barrel.

Brent is heading for a weekly gain of approximately 5.2%, while U.S. crude is on course for a 10.5% weekly increase. The June Brent contract hit $126.41 per barrel on Thursday—the highest level since March 2022—before closing lower.

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted: "The sharp reversal on Thursday confirms that the market climbs gradually but can fall rapidly on any sudden news of de-escalation, making conditions extremely difficult for traders."

Since the U.S. and Israeli-led offensive on Iran began in late February, oil prices have risen consistently due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, stated: "The upward trend for oil prices remains the path of least resistance as long as restrictions on flows through the Strait persist," adding that oil inventories are depleting rapidly due to market supply shortages.

Despite a ceasefire being in effect since April 8, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated Thursday evening that it is unrealistic to expect quick results from talks with the U.S., according to Iran’s official news agency.

In a related context, Anwar Gargash, advisor to the UAE President, posted on the "X" platform Friday that unilateral arrangements by Iran regarding freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be trusted, following what he described as "treacherous aggression" against its neighbors.

A senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened Thursday to launch "long and painful strikes" on U.S. sites if Washington resumes its attacks, causing oil prices to spike during the session before retreating later.

U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on plans for a series of new military strikes on Iran aimed at forcing Tehran into negotiations to end the conflict, according to a U.S. official speaking to Reuters.