Palladium prices rose during Tuesday’s trading as demand returned to metals, particularly industrial ones, alongside a weaker US dollar against most major currencies and softer risk appetite across markets.

Last month, UBS said in a client note that it raised its palladium price forecast by $300 per ounce to $1,800, citing a sharp increase in investment flows into the metal.

Analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the revision was driven by strong investment demand in recent months, noting that the relatively small size of the palladium market often leads to sharp price swings.

The bank explained that the latest price momentum was not driven by traditional industrial usage, but rather by investor positioning in anticipation of lower US interest rates, a weaker dollar, and rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Staunovo added that if investment demand remains strong, prices could move higher, but warned that in the absence of investment flows the market would likely be broadly balanced, which helps explain UBS’s preference for gold exposure.

Palladium demand has shifted in recent years after its use in auto catalytic converters peaked in 2019 — the same year prices surged above platinum — prompting substitution toward other metals.

The spread of electric vehicles, which do not use catalytic converters, has also weighed on palladium demand.

However, the bank noted that palladium has rallied alongside platinum and silver since mid-2025. With palladium now much cheaper than platinum, UBS expects catalytic converter manufacturers to switch back to using palladium over time.

Investment activity in palladium has increased notably, with UBS pointing to rising ETF holdings since mid-2025, along with a significant build-up in speculative futures positions after being net short for most of last year.

China could also support demand, as Staunovo said the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures contracts in Guangzhou likely supported palladium demand as part of broader trading activity across platinum group metals.

Elsewhere, the US dollar index was down less than 0.1% at 96.7 points as of 15:37 GMT, recording a high of 97.01 and a low of 96.6.

In trading, March palladium futures were up 0.6% at $1,755.5 per ounce as of 15:38 GMT.

Bitcoin traded below the $70,000 level during Tuesday’s Asian session after once again failing to hold onto its recent gains following a rebound from lows near $60,000, as investors remained cautious ahead of key US jobs and inflation data releases.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was down 2.2% at $69,392.7 as of 05:58 GMT.

Bitcoin stuck between $68,000 and $72,000 ahead of US data

The market has moved within a $68,000–$72,000 range in recent sessions after a volatile week that saw Bitcoin fall to around $60,000 — levels not seen since October 2024 — before a recovery wave pushed the token back above $70,000.

The pullback came amid liquidation-driven selling, with investors unwinding leveraged positions during the sharp declines.

Investors are now focused on US macroeconomic data that could shape Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

Monthly US jobs data — delayed due to a brief government shutdown — is scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Later in the week, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is due on Friday, a key inflation gauge that could influence rate-cut expectations.

Markets also remain cautious about the upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the central bank.

Traders are assessing how a potentially more hawkish stance under Warsh could affect liquidity conditions and speculative assets such as Bitcoin.

South Korean platform mistakenly sends $44 billion in Bitcoin to users

South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb mistakenly sent about $44 billion worth of Bitcoin to users during a promotional rewards event, prompting calls for tighter regulatory oversight by the country’s financial watchdog.

The error occurred on Friday when the platform accidentally credited 620,000 Bitcoin to user accounts instead of small cash rewards, triggering heavy selling before the issue was discovered. About 99.7% of the coins were later recovered.

Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee Chan-jin said the incident exposed structural weaknesses in virtual asset electronic systems and highlighted the need for stronger oversight mechanisms and stricter regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

Crypto prices today: altcoins remain under pressure

Most alternative cryptocurrencies also declined on Tuesday.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 2% to $2,052.92.

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 1% to $1.43.

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday as traders assessed the risk of supply disruptions following US guidance to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, keeping market focus on tensions between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures rose by 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $69.41 per barrel by 11:36 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.61 per barrel.

Tamas Varga, oil analyst at brokerage PVM, said the market remains focused on US–Iran tensions.

He added that unless there are concrete signs of supply disruption, prices are likely to start easing, noting that the market is trading in a narrow range due to ample supply offsetting geopolitical risks.

Prices had climbed more than 1% on Monday after the US Transportation Department’s maritime administration issued guidance for US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far away as possible from Iranian territorial waters and to refuse any Iranian boarding requests if encountered.

About one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a significant threat to global oil supplies.

Iran, along with OPEC partners including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, exports most of its oil shipments through the strait, particularly to Asian markets.

The guidance came despite comments last week from Iran’s top diplomat that Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the United States had started “well” and are set to continue.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Tuesday note that prices were supported by geopolitical factors, with increased oil shipments on tankers as buyers moved to secure additional volumes amid rising uncertainty.

Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG, said that although talks in Oman carried a cautiously positive tone, ongoing uncertainty about potential escalation, tighter sanctions, or supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a moderate risk premium in prices.

Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed expanding sanctions on Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, according to a draft document seen by Reuters, marking a first move targeting ports in third countries.

The step is part of broader efforts to tighten restrictions on Russian oil exports, a key source of revenue for Moscow during the war in Ukraine.

Separately, traders said Indian Oil Corp purchased six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, as India avoids buying Russian oil while seeking to finalize a trade deal with Washington that both sides hope to complete by March.

The British pound fell against the US dollar and the euro on Tuesday, as the broad selloff in the US currency eased, while ongoing concerns about the political situation in the UK and the Bank of England’s policy outlook continued to weigh on sterling.

UK two-year government bond yields were little changed after having dropped about 11 basis points since Thursday, when the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged following a narrow and unexpected 5–4 vote.

The central bank also said borrowing costs are likely to decline if the expected slowdown in inflation continues in the coming period.

Starmer will not resign

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer rejected calls for his resignation on Monday after a second adviser stepped down from a team facing a crisis linked to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who is viewed as a potential rival, announced her support for Starmer on Monday.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said sources inside the Labour Party reported strong resistance within the party to launching a leadership challenge ahead of local elections scheduled for May.

He said this development “should help reduce the risk of a sharper near-term selloff in the British pound.”

The euro rose 0.26% against sterling to 87.19 pence, after reaching 86.96 pence on Monday, its highest level since January 21.

Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank, said: “It remains questionable whether Starmer will still be prime minister by the end of the year, despite his strong win in the 2024 election and his efforts to establish stability,” while also noting early signs of recovery in the UK economy and easing inflation pressures.

He added: “Sterling is currently suffering from uncertainty, and this is likely to persist until the issue is resolved in a sustainable way.”

Against the dollar, the pound fell 0.2% to $1.3669.

The US dollar was broadly steady against European currencies ahead of key US economic data due on Wednesday.

Enrique Díaz-Álvarez, chief economist at global financial services firm Ebury, said that “the risk of a leftward shift within the government — particularly under a Labour leadership led by Angela Rayner — represents a downside risk for sterling and for UK assets in general.”