Silver prices rose in European trading on Monday, moving upward toward a two-week high, supported by the slowdown in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

Officials in Iran received a proposal from Pakistan involving a short-term ceasefire to engage in intensive negotiations with the United States to reach a final agreement to end the war and military escalation in the Middle East.

Price Overview

Silver prices today: silver rose 0.8% to $73.57, up from the session opening level of $73.00, after hitting a low of $71.14.

At Thursday’s settlement, silver prices lost 2.75%, marking the second consecutive daily loss as corrections and profit-taking continued from a two-week high of $76.13 per ounce.

The white metal gained 4.6% last week, marking its second consecutive weekly gain.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.4% on Monday, on track for its first loss in three sessions, reflecting a decline in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

In addition to renewed profit-taking, the US dollar is declining amid growing hopes for an end to the Iran war, especially as Iran studies the Pakistani proposal to halt the military escalation.

Iran war updates

• Senior Iranian official: Tehran has received the Pakistani proposal and it is currently being reviewed.

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: Tehran has prepared its diplomatic response to the United States and will announce it at the appropriate time.

• Trump vows that Iran will face "hell" by Tuesday if the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz is not met.

• Axios: Iranian mediators are making last-ditch efforts to reach a 45-day ceasefire.

• Axios: Sources report that the chances of reaching a partial agreement within the next 48 hours are slim.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Monday, resuming gains that stalled in the previous session and approaching a two-week high, supported by the current decline in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

Officials in Iran received a proposal from Pakistan involving a short-term ceasefire to engage in intensive negotiations with the United States to reach a final agreement to end the war and military escalation in the Middle East.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold rose 0.65% to $4,704.84, up from the session opening level of $4,676.49, after hitting a low of $4,600.92.

At Thursday’s settlement, gold prices lost 1.7%, marking the first loss in five days due to corrections and profit-taking after earlier reaching a two-week high of $4,800.38 per ounce.

The precious metal gained 4.1% last week, marking its second consecutive weekly gain, driven by active investment demand taking advantage of lower price levels.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.4% on Monday, on track for its first loss in three sessions, reflecting a decline in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is widely known, a decline in the US dollar makes gold, which is priced in dollars, more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

In addition to renewed profit-taking, the US dollar is declining amid growing hopes for an end to the Iran war, especially as Iran studies the Pakistani proposal to halt the military escalation.

Iran war updates

• Senior Iranian official: Tehran has received the Pakistani proposal and it is currently being reviewed.

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: Tehran has prepared its diplomatic response to the United States and will announce it at the appropriate time.

• Trump vows that Iran will face "hell" by Tuesday if the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz is not met.

• Axios: Iranian mediators are making last-ditch efforts to reach a 45-day ceasefire.

• Axios: Sources report that the chances of reaching a partial agreement within the next 48 hours are slim.

US interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, the probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the upcoming April meeting is currently priced at 99%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 1%.

Traders have almost entirely ruled out any possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Before the outbreak of the Iran war, expectations pointed to two cuts this year.

To reassess these probabilities, investors are awaiting the release of several important US economic data points throughout this week regarding growth and inflation levels in the world's largest economy.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the latest strong non-farm payrolls data has reinforced hawkish central bank fears, while concerns over inflation driven by oil prices continue to overshadow gold's traditional safe-haven appeal.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged on Thursday, leaving the total at 10,502.99 metric tons.

The euro fell in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, continuing its losses for the third consecutive day against the US dollar. This decline comes as investors focus on buying the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset amid escalating fears of the Iran war intensifying, as they await the final deadline set by US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

With eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank's medium-term target due to high energy prices, the probability of at least one European interest rate hike this year has increased, pending the release of further crucial economic data in Europe.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell about 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1505 from the session opening level of $1.1514, after reaching a high of $1.1525.

The euro ended Friday’s session down more than 0.2% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss due to developments in the Iran war.

US dollar

The dollar index rose more than 0.1% on Monday, maintaining gains for the third consecutive session and reflecting the continued strength of the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The rally is driven by investors focusing on the US dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset amid rising fears of the Iran war escalating, especially following the recent threats from US President Donald Trump.

Strong labor market data released in the United States on Friday reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the near term, as markets await further crucial economic data on inflation and consumer spending levels.

Iran war updates

• Trump vows that Iran will face "hell" by Tuesday if the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz is not met.

• Axios: Iranian mediators are making last-ditch efforts to reach a 45-day ceasefire.

• Axios: Sources report that the chances of reaching a partial agreement within the next 48 hours are slim.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank is prepared to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term.

Data released last week showed that eurozone inflation exceeded the European Central Bank's target, reaching 2.5% in March as energy prices rose.

Following this data, money market pricing for the probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April increased from 30% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes during this month's meeting.

To reassess these probabilities, investors are awaiting the release of more economic data from the eurozone regarding inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Monday against a basket of major and minor currencies, resuming its losses against the US dollar and approaching the ¥160 threshold. This decline comes as investors focus on buying the US dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset amid escalating fears of the Iran war intensifying, as markets await the final deadline set by US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

With inflationary pressures easing for policymakers at the Bank of Japan, the probability of a Japanese interest rate hike in April has declined, as investors wait for further economic data from Japan.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to ¥159.83 from Friday’s closing price of ¥159.51, after hitting a session low of ¥159.47.

The yen ended Friday’s session up less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its first gain in three days amid fresh warnings from the Japanese Finance Minister regarding excessive currency movements in the foreign exchange market.

Supported by continuous warnings from Japanese monetary authorities, the yen gained 0.45% against the dollar last week, marking its second weekly gain in three weeks.

US dollar

The dollar index rose more than 0.1% on Monday, maintaining gains for the third consecutive session and reflecting the continued strength of the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The rally is driven by investors focusing on the US dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset amid rising fears of the Iran war escalating, especially following the recent threats from US President Donald Trump.

Iran war updates

• Trump vows that Iran will face "hell" by Tuesday if the deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz is not met.

• Axios: Iranian mediators are making last-ditch efforts to reach a 45-day ceasefire.

• Axios: Sources report that the chances of reaching a partial agreement within the next 48 hours are slim.

Japanese authorities

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a new warning to currency traders on Friday, confirming the government's readiness to act against speculation in the foreign exchange markets given the significant rise in volatility recently.

Katayama said during a regular press conference that there is a rise in speculation in both the crude oil futures and foreign exchange markets, and that volatility has increased significantly.

Katayama added that since exchange rate fluctuations resulting from these developments affect the livelihoods and economy of citizens, the government is fully prepared for a comprehensive response on all levels.

Japanese interest rates

Data released last week in Japan showed a slowdown in Tokyo core inflation during March, the latest indicator of easing inflationary pressures on Bank of Japan policymakers.

Following this data, the market pricing for the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by a quarter point at the April meeting fell from 25% to 15%.

To reassess these probabilities, investors are awaiting the release of more data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.