Silver trades in negative territory as stronger US dollar weighs on prices

Silver prices fell nearly 1.5% in European trading on Monday, starting the new week on a weaker note and retreating from a two-week high reached earlier during Asian trading. The decline was driven by profit-taking and corrective selling, as well as pressure from a stronger US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Investors are awaiting key US services sector data later today, while the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday, are expected to provide fresh clues about the outlook for US interest rates.

The Price

• Silver prices fell about 1.5% to $61.56 per ounce, down from an opening level of $62.38, after reaching an intraday high of $63.27, the highest level since June 23.

• At Friday’s settlement, silver gained 2.3%, marking its fourth consecutive daily advance, supported by weaker US Treasury yields and a softer dollar.

• The white metal rose 5.5% last week, posting its first weekly gain in three weeks and its strongest weekly performance since May, as expectations for further US interest rate hikes eased.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose more than 0.2% on Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session as the greenback continued to recover from a two-week low, reflecting broader strength against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

Several analysts maintained a positive outlook for the US dollar, suggesting it could appreciate by a modest 2%–3% during the second half of 2026.

US interest rates

• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price a 76% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 24%.

• For December, markets assign a 24% probability to unchanged rates and a 76% probability to a 25-basis-point increase.

• Investors are awaiting today's ISM report on US services sector activity for June, which could provide important insight into the strength of economic activity and influence interest rate expectations.

• On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its first monetary policy meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh, which are expected to offer clearer guidance on the path of US interest rates for the remainder of the year.