The euro declined in European trading on Friday against a basket of major currencies, retreating from a one-week high versus the US dollar as part of a correction and profit-taking phase, following its strongest daily gain in two months. Despite the pullback, the single currency remains on track for a weekly gain, supported by the European Central Bank’s hawkish policy stance.

The US dollar has weakened this week from its highest levels in 10 months, as rising energy prices have reshaped global interest rate expectations, with the Federal Reserve remaining the only major central bank not expected to raise rates this year.

Price action

The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar to 1.1553, down from an opening level of 1.1588, after hitting an intraday high of 1.1595.

On Thursday, the euro closed up 1.2% versus the dollar, marking its third gain in four sessions and its strongest daily performance since January 27, driven by the ECB meeting.

Weekly performance

So far this week, the euro is up 1.25% against the US dollar, on track to post its first weekly gain in three weeks.

European Central Bank

As expected, the European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged on Thursday at 2.15%, the lowest level since October 2022, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without a change.

The ECB reiterated its data-dependent approach, emphasizing a meeting-by-meeting strategy without committing to a fixed rate path, while remaining ready to adjust all tools to ensure inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target.

Christine Lagarde

ECB President Christine Lagarde warned on Thursday that the military conflict is “casting a shadow” over growth and inflation prospects and will have a “material” and direct impact on prices in the near term.

She added that the external environment remains “highly challenging,” pointing to ongoing volatility in global trade policies.

European rates outlook

Sources told Reuters that the ECB is likely to begin discussing rate hikes as early as next month.

Following the meeting, money markets increased pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in April from 1% to 25%.

Investors are now awaiting further economic data from the eurozone, particularly on inflation, employment, and wages, to reassess these expectations.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.3% on Friday, rebounding from a one-week low as selling pressure on the currency eased.

The dollar had come under broad pressure on Thursday following policy meetings by central banks in Japan, Switzerland, the UK, and the eurozone, where policymakers signaled a potential shift toward tighter monetary policy in response to the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy supplies.

Analysis

Analysts at JPMorgan noted that while the Federal Reserve appears willing to remain patient in the face of a shock that presents dual risks to its mandate, the ECB seems unusually sensitive.

They added that there is a clear bias toward rate hikes this year, even if the timing and pace remain uncertain.

US stocks closed lower on Thursday, weighed down by declines in shares of companies such as Micron Technology and Tesla, amid concerns that rising oil prices could fuel inflation and limit the likelihood of future interest rate cuts.

Investors focused on warnings from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, who indicated that the economic outlook remains uncertain in light of the US–Israel war with Iran, which has driven energy prices higher and intensified inflationary pressures. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.

Interest rate futures showed that traders do not anticipate any rate cuts before mid-2027, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Other central banks followed a similar path, with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England holding rates steady, citing ongoing uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict.

Mike Dickson, Head of Research and Quantitative Strategies at Horizon Investments, said the market is digesting Powell’s remarks along with signals from other central banks highlighting real inflation risks.

Stock performance

The S&P 500 fell 0.27% to close at 6,606.49 points, while the Nasdaq declined 0.28% to 22,090.69 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.44% to finish at 46,021.43 points.

Eight of the eleven sectors within the S&P 500 ended in negative territory, led by the materials sector, which fell 1.55%, followed by consumer discretionary, down 0.87%.

All three major indices closed below their 200-day moving averages, reflecting weakening market momentum. The S&P 500 has lost more than 3% since the start of 2026, trading near its lowest levels in four months.

Oil and geopolitical impact

Oil prices pulled back from intraday highs, after Brent crude briefly touched $119 per barrel before retreating amid government efforts to boost supply. The moves followed Iranian strikes targeting energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

Market sentiment remained closely tied to developments in the conflict, as investors view higher energy prices as a key driver of inflation and a constraint on monetary easing.

Notable stock moves

Nvidia shares fell 1%, while precious metals companies such as Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan dropped 6.9% and 3.3%, respectively.

Tesla declined 3.2% after US regulators expanded an investigation into approximately 3.2 million vehicles equipped with its Full Self-Driving system, citing concerns over the system’s ability to detect hazards in low-visibility conditions.

Labor market data

Data released Thursday showed initial jobless claims declined unexpectedly, signaling labor market resilience and a potential pickup in hiring momentum in March.

Market breadth

Declining stocks outnumbered advancers within the S&P 500 by a ratio of 1.4 to 1, with 17 new highs and 26 new lows recorded. On the Nasdaq, 30 stocks hit new highs compared to 276 new lows.

Trading volume on US exchanges reached approximately 20 billion shares, in line with the average over the past 20 sessions.

Ripple extended its losses for a third consecutive session, trading near $1.46, down more than 9% from its weekly peak of $1.61, as market sentiment deteriorated following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts.

Selling pressure amid weakening demand

The token is facing increasing pressure as retail interest declines, with open interest in derivatives markets falling to $2.67 billion from $2.79 billion in the previous session, signaling reduced activity in futures trading.

Previously, a rise in open interest from $2.11 billion — the lowest level in March — to $2.87 billion on Tuesday coincided with the rally toward $1.61, highlighting the importance of liquidity flows in supporting prices.

On the institutional side, appetite remains weak. Data from US-based Ripple ETFs showed zero net inflows, with total cumulative inflows holding steady at $1.21 billion, while assets under management stood at approximately $1.02 billion.

These funds also recorded net outflows of $1.34 million since the beginning of the week, reflecting declining institutional interest.

Technical outlook: risks of deeper downside

From a technical perspective, Ripple continues to trade within a bearish bias, remaining below its key moving averages. The 50-day EMA stands near $1.51, the 100-day at $1.69, and the 200-day at $1.94, reinforcing the medium-term downward trend.

The MACD indicator signals fading bullish momentum despite remaining above the signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 52 in neutral territory, suggesting an ongoing correction without confirmation of a trend reversal.

The token also remains below a long-term descending trendline, indicating that current price action is part of a corrective phase rather than the start of a new uptrend.

In terms of key levels, initial support is seen at $1.45, with a break potentially opening the door toward $1.40. On the upside, resistance stands at $1.50, followed by $1.61, which marks the recent peak that capped the previous rally.

Oil and gas prices surged sharply on Thursday amid rising fears of global supply shortages following attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

Qatar announced that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a major liquefied natural gas export facility, after Tehran threatened to target energy infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in retaliation for Israeli strikes on a gas processing plant inside Iran.

European gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub – the region’s benchmark – jumped more than 11% to around €61 per megawatt-hour.

In oil markets, Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose more than 1% to $108.78 per barrel after briefly touching $119 earlier in the session before trimming gains. US West Texas Intermediate crude also climbed to around $96.58 per barrel.

US natural gas prices increased by 3.8%, while gasoline futures rose to their highest levels in nearly four years.

QatarEnergy confirmed that the Iranian strikes caused “extensive damage” in Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Emergency teams managed to contain fires with no reported casualties.

The company’s CEO, Saad Al-Kaabi, stated that the attacks disrupted about 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, adding further strain to global supply.

In an official response, Qatar’s foreign ministry described the attack as a “serious escalation” and a clear violation of sovereignty, warning of its implications for regional security and stability, while affirming its right to respond under international law.

These developments come as the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes – continues to face major disruptions in tanker traffic, heightening the risk of a supply shock.

In parallel, a White House official said the United States is not currently considering restrictions on oil and gas exports, while Vice President J.D. Vance met with oil industry leaders and stressed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains a top priority for the administration.

Analysts warned that continued targeting of energy infrastructure could push markets toward a “loss of control” scenario, where the crisis escalates from supply chain disruptions to actual production shortages, potentially triggering sharp volatility and significant price spikes as countries scramble to secure energy supplies.