The euro fell in European trading on Friday against a basket of global currencies, extending its losses for the fourth consecutive day against the US dollar, following the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, whose outcome largely matched market expectations.

In its final meeting of 2025, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, while raising its growth forecasts, suggesting that growth will be stronger than previously estimated, driven in particular by domestic demand.

Price overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro slipped by around 0.1% against the dollar to 1.715, from the opening level of 1.1723, and recorded a session high at 1.1729.

• On Thursday, the euro ended trading down 0.15% against the dollar, marking its third consecutive daily loss, amid ongoing corrective moves and profit-taking from a three-month high of 1.1804.

US dollar

The dollar index rose by 0.1% on Friday, maintaining gains for the third session in a row, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

In addition to buying from lower levels, the dollar is benefiting from easing inflationary pressures on some global central banks, which supports expectations of continued monetary easing and further interest rate cuts.

European Central Bank

In line with expectations, the European Central Bank on Thursday kept its key interest rates unchanged at 2.15%, the lowest level since October 2022, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change.

The ECB reiterated its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without committing to a specific interest rate path, noting that current interest rate levels are appropriate given stable inflation and economic growth.

Christine Lagarde

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the bank remains in a “good position,” stressing that there is consensus within the Governing Council to keep all options open, including the possibility of raising interest rates if necessary.

Lagarde noted that the European economy is showing greater resilience than expected, with growth supported by domestic demand. She avoided directly addressing the possibility of rate hikes in 2026, but emphasized caution amid geopolitical and trade risks.

European interest rates

Money markets are currently pricing the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in February 2026 at less than 10%.

Views and analysis

Analysts at Barclays, led by Mariano Cena, said in a note to investors that the ECB meeting did not provide any new information that would change their view on the most likely path of monetary policy or the balance of risks surrounding it.

They added that they continue to expect the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged over the next two years, and see risks tilted toward rate cuts rather than hikes over their forecast horizon.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Friday against a basket of major and secondary currencies, resuming losses against the US dollar after a brief pause the previous day, and touching a one-week low, following the Bank of Japan’s widely expected decision to raise its benchmark interest rate.

Japan’s monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since September 1995. This marks the second rate hike in 2025, following an earlier increase in January.

The Bank of Japan said real interest rates are expected to remain low, prompting markets to await further clarification later in the day from Governor Kazuo Ueda on whether the central bank intends to continue raising rates next year.

Price overview

• Japanese yen today: The dollar rose against the yen by 0.45% to 156.18, the highest level since December 10, from an opening level of 155.46. The session low was recorded at 155.45.

• On Thursday, the yen ended trading up 0.1% against the dollar, following a 0.6% loss the previous day amid corrective moves and profit-taking from a two-week high near 154.39.

Bank of Japan

At the conclusion of its final monetary policy meeting of 2025, the Bank of Japan on Friday raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since September 1995, in line with market expectations. This represents the second tightening move by the Japanese central bank this year.

The decision was approved unanimously by members of the monetary policy committee and reflects the continuation of Japan’s gradual normalization of monetary policy after decades of near-zero interest rates.

Policy updates

In its policy statement, the Bank of Japan said that based on recent data and surveys, there is a high likelihood that the mechanism of moderate and synchronized wage and inflation growth will continue.

The central bank added that given the extremely low level of real interest rates, it will continue to raise rates if its economic and price outlooks are realized.

The bank also noted that despite economic weakness, corporate profits are likely to remain strong, and companies are expected to continue raising wages through 2026.

It further stated that the moderate wage-price cycle is very likely to persist, and that the probability of underlying inflation reaching the 2% target is increasing.

Japanese interest rates

• Following the meeting, market pricing for another 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its January meeting remained below 20%.

• Investors will continue to monitor upcoming data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan to reassess these expectations.

Kazuo Ueda

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak later today on the outcome of the policy meeting, with his remarks expected to provide stronger signals on the future path of monetary normalization and interest rate hikes through 2026.

Views and analysis

• Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan economics at Oxford Economics, said the bank is likely to raise its policy rate again around mid-2026, reaching a terminal level of 1% following this latest increase.

• Nagai defines the terminal or neutral interest rate as the level that balances inflation and economic growth, neither overheating the economy nor slowing it excessively.

• He warned that additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan could generate political tension if inflation eases smoothly toward the 2% target in the first half of 2026.

• Norihiro Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Oxford Economics in Tokyo, said that while Governor Ueda is unlikely to discuss the neutral rate explicitly given the bank’s stance so far, he is expected to emphasize that further rate hikes may be needed to counter yen depreciation pressures. Otherwise, the yen could weaken further and bond yields could decline.

It appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi just over a week ago passed with surprisingly little attention from many geopolitical observers. This is striking, because the visit represents one of the most significant recalibrations of India–Russia relations in years, combining expanded defense cooperation, energy assurances, and strong diplomatic symbolism at a time when global alignments are shifting at an unprecedented pace.

At the heart of the visit was the ratification of the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support agreement (RELOS), a deal that quietly expands military cooperation between India and Russia to include Russian Arctic ports and the Northern Sea Route (NSR).

The Kola Peninsula in this remote region hosts roughly half of Russia’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine fleet, including 12 strategic submarines carrying up to 192 nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, in addition to dozens of other nuclear-powered submarines equipped with cruise missiles and special mission capabilities. In effect, the Arctic functions as Russia’s second-strike nuclear capability in the event that its primary nuclear forces inside its territory were destroyed.

The region is also a key testing ground for advanced weapons systems, including hypersonic missiles, nuclear-powered torpedoes, and cruise missiles. Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom operates nuclear power facilities in the Arctic as well, further deepening Russia’s nuclear footprint in the region.

Beyond nuclear assets, the Russian Arctic contains some of the world’s largest untapped reserves of oil, gas, and critical minerals. Estimates suggest the region holds more than 35.7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and over 2.3 billion metric tons of oil and condensates, largely concentrated in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas south of the Kara Sea. The area also contains vast deposits of nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements essential to modern industry.

For the Kremlin, exploiting these resources is not merely an economic necessity but a strategic priority, as revenues from Arctic energy projects underpin the financing of Russia’s military modernization and its ability to withstand Western sanctions.

Under the RELOS framework, the armed forces of both countries are permitted to use each other’s bases, ports, and airfields for refueling, repairs, resupply, and maintenance. The agreement also covers joint exercises, training missions, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief. However, its strategic implications extend far beyond these formal provisions.

For India, the deal allows its warships to refuel and resupply at Russian ports such as Murmansk and Vladivostok, effectively giving New Delhi a foothold along the Northern Sea Route. This corridor could reduce shipping distances between Europe and Asia by roughly 40%, enhancing both trade efficiency and naval reach.

In practical terms, access to Russian facilities enables Indian forces to sustain forward deployments without relying exclusively on Western partners. Even prior to this agreement, Indian forces participated in Russia-led ZAPAD military exercises between September 12 and 16 alongside Belarus, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. Those drills reportedly included simulations involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons for the first time.

Symbolically, the RELOS agreement integrates India into Russia’s Arctic project, signaling New Delhi’s entry as a player in Arctic geopolitics and extending its influence into a region long central to Moscow’s strategic ambitions.

On the other side of the equation, reciprocal access to Indian bases and facilities gives Russia a reliable presence in the Indian Ocean, an area where Moscow has long sought to expand its naval footprint but lacked dependable partners. The ability to refuel and repair in Indian ports strengthens Russia’s capacity to project power across the Indo-Pacific and participate more actively in joint military exercises.

Politically, India’s engagement with Russia in the Arctic lends legitimacy to Moscow’s regional ambitions and sends a broader message that the Kremlin is not isolated despite escalating Western sanctions. Closer cooperation with India also opens channels for marketing Arctic hydrocarbons and minerals to Asian buyers, while reinforcing the Northern Sea Route as a future commercial artery for Russia.

From a military standpoint, the agreement deepens offensive and defensive interoperability between the two powers and integrates Russia into India’s broader logistical support network, ensuring greater operational flexibility for Russian naval assets. Strategically, anchoring ties with India helps Moscow counter Western efforts to contain its influence and secures a major Asian partner willing to institutionalize defense cooperation at a time when Russia’s options elsewhere are narrowing.

In the near term, one of the most immediate benefits for Putin may be the implicit reassurance from Modi that the core energy relationship between the two countries remains intact despite mounting Western pressure.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, India has emerged as one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, second only to China. In 2024, Russia supplied roughly 36% of India’s total crude imports, or about 1.8 million barrels per day, at prices heavily discounted from global benchmarks.

Despite the United States imposing tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods to pressure New Delhi into reducing its purchases, India has maintained its reliance on Russian energy, arguing that low-cost supplies are essential for its fast-growing economy. During his December visit, Putin pledged uninterrupted fuel supplies and described Russia as a reliable supplier of oil, gas, and coal.

In response, and after tightening sanctions to discourage India’s use of Russian oil and gas, Washington has recently stepped up its own offers to supply India with energy. These moves are part of a broader push to advance key elements of the “U.S.–India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership” outlined during meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Modi in February.

These plans, mirroring aspects of Russia’s approach toward India, include military components formalized through a new U.S.–India initiative known as COMPACT, short for Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce, and Technology for the 21st Century. The initiative aims to expand defense sales and co-production to enhance interoperability and industrial defense cooperation.

On the broader trade front, both sides have set a new target of more than doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. However, implementing these wide-ranging and interlinked agreements represents Washington’s next major challenge in its effort to keep India aligned with the United States. India’s deep military, political, economic, and energy ties with Russia may prove exceptionally difficult to unwind.

Global copper prices traded near elevated levels, amid ongoing concerns over constrained supply and rising demand from industrial and energy sectors, according to Bloomberg reports.

In the latest data, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange showed little change, with the red metal holding near $11,727.50 per metric ton in morning trading, as prices stabilized compared with previous sessions despite broader market volatility.

Futures data on the COMEX exchange showed a decline in trading volumes and a slight drop in open interest, reflecting reduced market activity compared with recent sessions, while investors continue to monitor global supply and demand dynamics.

Prices remain close to historical highs, having approached the $12,000 per ton threshold in recent sessions, driven by stronger global demand—particularly from digital transformation and renewable energy sectors—alongside investor concerns over inventory accumulation and tightening supply.

Bloomberg also reported that higher copper prices are boosting the performance of European mining stocks, which are on track for one of their strongest years since 2016, supported by the rally in this key metal. Copper continues to attract global market attention as a leading indicator of economic health and industrial demand, given its extensive use in electricity, infrastructure, electric vehicles, and data centers, making its price movements influential across commodity and metals markets more broadly.