The minutes of the American Federal Reserve meeting for the month of March showed that officials still expect to cut interest rates during 2026, despite the high level of uncertainty due to the war in Iran and customs duties.

Most participants indicated that the war may push toward adopting a more accommodative monetary policy if high gas prices lead to pressure on the labor market and consumer portfolios. They also stressed the necessity of being "flexible" when assessing the impact of the war on inflation, which remained higher than the Federal Reserve's target, and on employment, which remained stable over the past year.

The meeting minutes stated: "Many participants see that it would be appropriate in due course to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation falls in line with their expectations."

The general consensus expected one cut this year, unchanged from the last update in last December. The minutes pointed to caution regarding "an additional decline in labor market conditions, which may necessitate cutting interest rates further, given that the rise in oil prices may reduce the purchasing power of households, tighten financial conditions, and slow growth abroad."

Decision to keep interest rates steady

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to maintain the target range for the overnight borrowing rate between 3.5% and 3.75%.

Despite that, officials expressed concern that the developments in the Middle East may lead to sustained inflation necessitating a rate hike later. The minutes indicated that "the majority of participants indicated that it is too early to know how the developments in the Middle East will affect the American economy, and they considered it prudent to continue monitoring and assessing the effects on the appropriate monetary policy."

The participants met weeks after the American and Israeli attack on Iran, which caused a wave of rising energy prices and renewed fears of rising inflation. The announcement of the ceasefire led to a sharp decline in oil, but the extent of the agreement's durability is still subject to doubt.

Inflation and the labor market

Despite the disruptions, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. They confirmed that customs duties still represent a threat, but most of them consider their impact temporary when calculating inflation.

Chair Jerome Powell expressed that raising rates now to repel the rise in inflation may have negative effects in the long term due to the delay in the impact of interest rate decisions. At the same time, officials expressed concern regarding the labor market, which still creates enough jobs to maintain the stability of the unemployment rate, but most of the growth in jobs was in the healthcare sector, which raises concern about the market's stability and the capacity for growth.

"The vast majority of participants see that the risks on the employment side are tilted toward the downside. Specifically, many participants warned that the labor market appears vulnerable to negative shocks in light of low rates of net job creation."

Market expectations and economic growth

Markets generally expect that the Federal Reserve will remain on its stance until the end of the year, but the ceasefire increased the probabilities of a potential cut.

On the economic front, indicators showed signs of slowing, as the Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, and it is expected to record only 1.3% in the first quarter of 2026.

The main indices in Wall Street rose to their highest levels in about a month on Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which led to a decline in crude oil prices with expectations for the resumption of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

The announcement came hours before the deadline set by American President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which about a fifth of global oil trade passes.

A high-ranking Iranian official told Reuters that the corridor may be opened on Thursday or Friday before the peace talks if the countries agree on a framework for the ceasefire.

Global markets, which were suffering from conflicting signals for weeks, witnessed an upward wave, with the rise of stock exchanges in Asia and Europe, while oil prices declined to less than 100 dollars per barrel.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said: "Whether these early risk-on moves are sustainable or not is another matter… if shipments start moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, and there was strong evidence of the possibility of returning to the normal situation before the war, that will encourage investors."

He added: "But looking at the complexity of the surrounding issues, it is unlikely that a ceasefire for two weeks will be enough to convince investors that it is safe to return to the market."

At 10:06 AM US Eastern Time:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,308.99 points, or 2.81%, to 47,893.45 points.

The S&P 500 climbed 155.91 points, or 2.36%, to 6,772.76 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 617.51 points, or 2.81%, to 22,635.36 points.

The Russell 2000 index for small companies jumped 3% to reach its highest level in more than a month, while the CBOE volatility index declined 4.74 points to 20.99, after recording its lowest level since February 27.

The energy sector in the S&P 500 was the only one in the red zone, declining by about 5%:

ExxonMobil lost 6.3%

Chevron decreased 5.5%

Occidental Petroleum declined 7.7%

The shares of travel companies jumped, as Southwest Airlines rose 10.8% and United Airlines 12.8%, which supported the industrial sector shares in the S&P 500 with a rise of 3.8%, and it was the highest among the gaining sectors.

The cruise companies Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line added 14.2% and 12% respectively.

The technology index in the S&P 500 rose 2.8%, supported by the shares of electronic chip companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached a record level briefly, as it rose in the end 5.3%.

The gains of the companies Goldman Sachs and American Express contributed to supporting the Dow Jones index.

This week, the focus will be on domestic inflation data to see if the high oil prices during the war increased price pressures. Also, the statements of Federal Reserve officials and the minutes of the March meeting will be analyzed.

Market bets show a 33.9% probability for a cut of 25 basis points in December, according to the FedWatch tool from CME, compared to 13.6% on the previous day. Traders were expecting two cuts before the outbreak of the war.

Among other prominent stocks:

Levi Strauss rose 12.8% after the company raised its annual sales and profit forecasts.

Delta Air Lines rose 8.6%, despite the expectation of profits lower than expected for the second quarter, and it did not update its annual forecasts due to uncertainty regarding fuel prices linked to the Iranian war.

Advancing shares outperformed declining ones by a ratio of 6.74 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, and by a ratio of 5.53 to 1 on Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 recorded 18 new 52-week highs and recorded no lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 108 new highs and 17 new lows.

Copper jumped to its highest level in three weeks on Wednesday after American President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of a global economic slowdown resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed by 3.5% to reach $12,737.50 per ton by 09:20 GMT, after touching its highest level since March 18 at $12,755.50. Copper had declined by 7.6% in March due to economic concerns arising from the Iranian war.

Trump indicated that the ceasefire is conditional on Iran's agreement to suspend the blockade of oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell by more than 16% on Wednesday.

The brokerage firm Sucden Financial said in a note on base metals:

"While this (the ceasefire) may lead to short-term relief in the energy risk premium, the agreement appears fragile and conditional, suggesting that markets are likely to remain news-driven rather than shifting to a sustainable environment of positive risk."

The discount of the spot copper contract on the London Metal Exchange against the three-month contract widened to $89.50 per ton from $84.60 on Tuesday, which suggests the absence of a shortage in available metal.

Copper inventories in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange rose on April 7 to 385,275 tons, an increase of 10,075 tons from April 2, which is the highest level since March 2018. The volume increased thanks to inflows to New Orleans and locations in Asia.

As for aluminum prices, which rose when the metal was unable to follow its natural path from Gulf producers to export markets through the Strait of Hormuz, they stabilized at $3,475 per ton.

Smelters in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were subjected to attack and sabotage by Iran late last month, which led to taking supplies out of the market. At the same time, the Iranian Mehr News Agency stated that reports of an American-Israeli attack on the aluminum plant in Arak in central Iran are incorrect.

In a broad wave of relief for base metals, nickel jumped by 2.6% to $17,385 per ton, and tin climbed by 4.8% to $48,030, and lead added 0.6% to reach $1,957.50, while zinc rose 0.5% to $3,322.50.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rose strongly on Wednesday, amid relief in the markets after the United States and Iran reached an agreement for a ceasefire for 14 days pending negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent peace agreement.

Bitcoin climbed by 5% to reach about $71,842 early on Wednesday, recording its highest level since mid-March.

As for the rest of the cryptocurrencies, Ethereum rose by 7.7%, and Ripple also climbed by 5.5%, while Solana rose by 6.5%. As for Dogecoin, which is a memecoin, it rose by 4.4%.

During recent months, cryptocurrencies have generally traded as high-risk and high-volatility assets, and they declined with the escalation of fighting in the Middle East. Bitcoin also remains down sharply compared to its record level that exceeded $126 thousand in October of last year.

Stocks of companies linked to cryptocurrencies also recorded a rise, as the stock of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, climbed by 6.7%, while the stock of the cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase Global rose by 4.9%.

And after daily gains amounting to 4.79%, Bitcoin regained the key moving averages, but it faces an important cluster of resistance levels near the session highs.

This rise pushed the price clearly above both the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $68,749 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $68,683, however, resistance pressures began to appear with the approach of the price to the first technical barrier at $71,979.

This situation represents a classic scenario of price reversion to the mean, where the rapid recovery of Bitcoin faces the challenge of maintaining momentum above the moving averages that were recently regained. Also, the proximity of the price to several overlapping resistance levels indicates that the next few sessions will determine whether this bullish recovery can continue or will need a phase of consolidation.

The recovery wave faces a cluster of resistance near the session highs

The trading range during the day, between $67,805 and $72,379, reflects the return of buying interest after Bitcoin succeeded in defending support levels earlier in the session. The current price at $71,780 is slightly below the first resistance level at $71,979, which creates a narrow zone in which directional momentum faces the next decisive test.

Also, the trading volume during 24 hours amounting to $54.39 billion provides sufficient liquidity to support the rise. However, the approach of the price to the high level of the session coincides with several technical barriers that may limit the continuation of the rise in the near term.

The support structure is still holding above $64,972 despite the risks of correction

The technical support structure remains strong, as the first level at $64,972 provides an important barrier. This gap amounting to $6,808 grants protection space on the downside in case the recovery faces selling pressures near the resistance zones. As for the second support, it is located at $62,553, which is a more solid technical floor level. These levels form the wider trading range, although the focus currently is on testing resistance given the current position of Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Regaining moving averages paves the way for the next move

The trading of Bitcoin above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average and the 50-day Simple Moving Average represents an important technical development. The bullish scenario consists of the continuation of trading above these averages, which may lead to testing the level of $74,659 and the Fibonacci confluence zone. As for the bearish scenario, it consists of pressures of reversion to the mean, which may push the price to drop below $68,749, with targeting the support level at $64,972.