The US dollar rose against most major currencies on Thursday following economic data that strengthened expectations the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates at its meeting next week.

Government figures released today showed that initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to 191,000 last week, compared with expectations of 220,000.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced job cuts in the US totaled 71.3 thousand in November.

Markets now await Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Based on CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations point to nearly an 89% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.

In trading, the dollar index edged higher by less than 0.1% to 98.9 points at 18:42 GMT, after hitting a high of 99.03 and a low of 98.7.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar rose 0.2% against its US counterpart to 0.6616 at 18:53 GMT.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar held steady at 0.7168 against the US dollar at 18:53 GMT.

Artificial intelligence has rapidly emerged as one of the defining global forces of our era. As a core driver of the fourth industrial revolution, it is increasingly viewed as a strategic tool to tackle major challenges such as climate change and pollution. Energy companies are deploying AI to digitize records, analyze massive geological datasets, and identify early-warning signs of operational issues — from equipment overuse to pipeline corrosion.

AI now plays a central role in seismic data analysis, well-path optimization, and advanced reservoir management, enabling higher recovery rates with lower environmental impact and fewer human errors. Companies such as AI Driller use remote, AI-driven systems to manage drilling operations across multiple rigs, while Petro AI and Tachyus build physics-based models to forecast production and optimize reservoir performance. Energy services giants Baker Hughes (NYSE:BKR) and C3.ai (NYSE:AI) rely on enterprise AI systems to predict equipment failures, and Buzz Solutions analyzes visual data to inspect and maintain power lines.

A similar transformation is unfolding across the electricity sector, where AI is redesigning operations from generation to consumption — even as AI itself drives power demand sharply higher.

AI improves demand response and energy efficiency through platforms such as Brainbox AI and Enerbrain, which autonomously reduce unnecessary energy use. Meanwhile, Uplight helps utilities incentivize efficient consumption. AI also facilitates the integration of renewable energy by analyzing huge datasets — including weather patterns — to more accurately predict solar and wind output.

In the renewable energy segment, AI enhances grid management, balances supply and demand in real time, and uses machine-learning models to predict equipment failures, thereby minimizing downtime and lowering operating costs. Envision and PowerFactors offer unified platforms for managing massive renewable fleets, while Clir and WindESCo detect under-performing wind turbines and automatically optimize blade angles and orientations for maximum energy capture. SkySpecs uses AI-powered autonomous drones to perform automated turbine inspections, and Form Energy is developing long-duration storage solutions to address renewable intermittency.

AI has also become fundamental to building modern smart grids by enhancing visibility, managing congestion, and preventing outages. Kraken Technologies provides the AI “brain” for next-generation grids, balancing intermittent renewable supply with real-time demand, coordinating millions of decentralized energy assets, and automating operations to maximize efficiency and system stability.

WeaveGrid and Camus Energy help utilities integrate electric vehicles and other distributed energy resources without overloading the grid. WeaveGrid’s EV-specific software optimizes charging schedules to align with grid capacity and renewable availability, while Camus Energy uses machine learning to deliver highly accurate demand and power-flow forecasts — speeding up complex grid-physics computations and improving stability during peak EV charging.

AI is also redefining carbon-emissions management and ESG compliance by centralizing data, streamlining processes, monitoring supply chains, and improving reporting accuracy. Companies can now track emissions in real time, run predictive models, and automate ESG reporting — including anomaly detection and regulatory navigation.

CarbonChain and Watershed use AI and machine learning to deliver detailed, scalable emissions measurement — especially for supply-chain (Scope 3) emissions. CarbonChain automates large-scale supply-chain data ingestion and analysis to produce audit-ready emissions reports. Watershed’s enterprise sustainability platform uses AI extensively to automate data collection and improve accuracy. Its Product Footprints tool analyzes every purchased item — breaking it down into raw materials, manufacturing steps, and transportation — producing granular emissions estimates within minutes.

Yet the rise of AI has carried a significant cost: soaring electricity consumption in states hosting large clusters of AI data centers. Tech giants and AI labs are building enormous data-center campuses that can each consume up to a gigawatt of power — enough to supply more than 800,000 homes. Unsurprisingly, the states with the heaviest concentration of these energy-hungry sites are also experiencing some of the steepest increases in electricity prices.

Virginia hosts 666 data centers — the highest number in the US — and residential electricity prices in the state surged 13% in August from a year earlier, the second-largest increase nationwide. Illinois, home to 244 data centers, saw prices rise 15.8%, the highest in the country.

Predictably, political backlash is rising. Several lawmakers have criticized the Trump administration for striking private deals with major tech companies and shifting the burden of data-center energy costs onto consumers. As a result, the industry is increasingly exploring the model pioneered by Oklo (NYSE:OKLO), in which data centers generate their own dedicated power supply — reducing strain on local grids and shielding consumers from additional costs.

Copper prices climbed to a fresh record on Wednesday after a surge in withdrawal requests from London Metal Exchange warehouses deepened concerns that potential US tariffs could trigger a global supply squeeze — though the industrial metal edged slightly lower in today’s session.

Futures in London jumped 3.4% to trade above $11,500 per metric ton, surpassing Monday’s peak after LME data showed a sharp rise in copper withdrawals from Asian warehouses. Mining shares rallied as well, with Chile’s Antofagasta surging more than 5% to an all-time high.

Copper has been on an extended upward run in recent weeks amid growing warnings from traders and analysts that global inventories could soon fall to critical levels, especially with more shipments being diverted to the US ahead of possible tariff measures.

Benchmark LME copper is now up more than 30% year-to-date, supported by production disruptions at several major mines that have tightened global supply. But US futures have risen even more sharply, reflecting investor bets that President Donald Trump will move ahead with tariffs on primary copper forms by the end of next year.

“There is clearly a very strong underlying story in the copper market,” said Helen Amos, commodities analyst at BMO Capital Markets. “Investors recognize that miners are struggling to maintain and expand production.”

She added that the widening “price spread between the US and the rest of the world” is having the biggest impact on driving prices higher.

Trump first announced plans for copper tariffs in February, shaking the global industry and sending US import volumes to record levels. In late July, he surprised markets again by narrowing the proposed tariffs to manufactured copper products while leaving the door open to duties on raw forms starting in 2027.

These shifting tariff expectations have had major consequences in the physical market, prompting traders to accelerate shipments into US ports and pushing domestic futures higher. Producers have also imposed record-high premiums for supplying copper to customers in Europe and Asia next year, as buyers effectively compensate miners for potential extra profits from selling into the US market.

Last week, commodity trading firm Mercuria warned that these trade dynamics could spark a severe global supply crisis by the first quarter of next year, predicting that copper would continue setting unprecedented highs.

“The ongoing tariff threat is the most certain driver in the copper market through the first half of next year,” said Dan Ghali, senior commodities strategist at TD Securities. “It’s a powerful catalyst for further upside.”

He added that the market’s microstructure ensures continued incentives to draw copper out of global inventories for months to come — inadvertently draining stocks or diverting supply away from the world market as the US pulls more metal into storage.

Most of the copper stored in LME warehouses originates from China — already subject to US tariffs — and from Russia, which is barred from exporting to the US. But these stocks can be used to meet Asian demand, freeing up supply from countries like Chile and Japan to be redirected toward the US.

Fundamentally, the copper market has been strained this year by disruptions at mines from Chile to Indonesia. The latest sign of stress came Wednesday when Ivanhoe Mines cut production guidance from its massive Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is still recovering from earlier flooding. Glencore — whose output has fallen 40% since 2018 — also lowered its production target for next year, though it said it plans to nearly double output over the next decade.

Supply fears have kept copper prices elevated despite relatively softer demand. Goldman Sachs expects a global surplus of around 500,000 tons this year, citing a “material slowdown” in Chinese demand in recent months.

Even so, Goldman analysts — including Auriela Walther and Eoin Dinsmore — noted that nearly all of that surplus appears concentrated in the US, while other regions are seeing shrinking availability.

In US trading on Thursday, March copper futures slipped 0.5% to $5.36 per pound as of 14:17 GMT.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $92,949, up 4.1% over the past 24 hours, extending a sharp rebound from Monday’s low of $84,000. The world’s largest digital asset has recovered roughly 10% this week after falling more than 33% from its all-time highs above $126,000 in October. The latest rebound reflects investor repositioning as expectations grow for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside improving regulatory sentiment and continued institutional buying — all of which are helping restore a bullish tone heading into December.

Federal Reserve expectations and the return of liquidity

Macro forces have once again taken the lead in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. Traders now assign an 88.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch. The shift came after US import and export price data showed flat monthly inflation and a mild 0.3% annual rise in import prices — the slowest in seven months.

US Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year falling to 4.06%, while the US Dollar Index retreated to 96.51, its lowest since October. The end of quantitative tightening on December 1 marked a pivotal moment for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, following two years of global pressure on risk appetite. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has climbed 12% week-on-week, while spot trading volumes are up 20%, confirming renewed institutional flows ahead of an expected monetary easing cycle.

Regulatory shifts boost institutional confidence

Regulatory developments also supported Bitcoin’s rise. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced plans for a new “innovation exemption” aimed at modernizing the digital-asset framework by clarifying rules on issuance, custody, and on-chain trading. If implemented, this would be the most supportive US regulatory environment for crypto since 2021.

The narrative strengthened further as Vanguard — the world’s second-largest asset manager — reversed its long-held stance and will now allow trading of crypto ETFs and digital-asset funds on its platform. This effectively opens access to millions of retail and institutional investors at a moment when liquidity conditions are improving, marking a structural expansion in potential Bitcoin demand.

Corporate risk: Strategy (MSTR) and a potential 2028 stress point

Despite the near-term optimism, concerns are rising around Strategy — the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. A Tiger Research report found that Strategy’s balance sheet can withstand BTC prices as low as $23,000 before liabilities exceed assets, supported by convertible debt and preferred-equity issuances.

However, 2028 presents a significant risk: $6.4 billion in convertible bonds will mature, and call provisions could trigger early repayment. If Bitcoin trades near the insolvency threshold at that time, the company may need to liquidate up to 20%–30% of global daily spot BTC volume, potentially causing systemic market stress. Chairman Michael Saylor has downplayed these risks, arguing that liquidity growth, ETF integration, and increased corporate adoption will offset volatility — but the 2028 scenario remains a notable long-term credit risk tied directly to Bitcoin’s price structure.

Institutional flows, market positioning, and volatility indicators

Data from CoinMarketCap and Glassnode shows that institutional wallets accumulated roughly 16,200 BTC over the past 72 hours, alongside about $59 million in ETF inflows. Vanguard’s policy shift accelerated these flows.

This recovery comes as the CBOE VIX remains near 16.54, signaling broad market calm despite rising trading activity. Meanwhile, the Treasury-bond MOVE index continues to decline, strengthening the relationship between rate-market volatility and digital-asset pricing.

BTC/USD remains highly sensitive to yield movements: traders estimate that each 10-basis-point shift in the US 10-year yield can add or subtract roughly $2,000 from Bitcoin’s price.

Short-term technical outlook and key levels

Technically, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance between $94,000 and $98,000, an area that aligns with prior selling zones and the 200-hour moving average. A breakout above this range could pave the way for a test of the $100,000 psychological barrier — a level that capped the August rally.

On the downside, support appears strong near $88,200, a key on-chain accumulation region. The daily RSI has climbed from oversold territory (34) to 51, indicating a neutral recovery with room for upward continuation. Derivatives markets show perpetual-funding rates at +0.015%, suggesting mild bullish bias without excessive leverage — a constructive environment for sustained gains.