The Japanese yen declined in the Asian market on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, deepening its losses for the fourth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar. It reached its lowest level in nearly two weeks as investors focused on buying the American currency as the preferred alternative investment amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, where both sides have exchanged control over ships and oil tankers.

Despite the current rise in global oil prices, the probability of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates during its April meeting remains weak. Most speculation suggests the bank will abandon its hawkish stance due to risks associated with the repercussions of the Iranian war.

Price Overview

- Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Today: The dollar rose against the yen by 0.15% to (159.68¥), the highest since April 13, from today’s opening price of (159.44¥), and recorded a low of (159.30¥).

- The yen ended Wednesday's trading down by 0.1% against the dollar, its third consecutive daily loss, due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose by more than 0.1% on Thursday, extending its gains for the third consecutive session and reaching its highest level in over a week. This reflects the continued rise of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

This ascent comes as investors focus on buying the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, as the United States and Iran remain at odds over the ceasefire, the blockade, nuclear files, and control of the Strait.

These disputes keep the strategic waterway effectively closed and threaten an energy sector shock that could damage global economies.

Skye Masters, head of markets research at National Australia Bank, stated: "Despite Trump's extension of the ceasefire, tensions remain high with Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the continued U.S. naval blockade, increasing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions."

Masters added that extreme economic and trade risks are undervalued, and inflationary pressures will persist until the end of the year.

Iranian War Updates

- The United States intercepts three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters.

- Iran seizes two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

- Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill.

- The United Kingdom announced that two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Trump hints at the possibility of a second round of negotiations in Pakistan tomorrow, Friday.

- Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that a full ceasefire would only be logical if the blockade is lifted.

Global Oil Prices

Global oil prices rose by more than 4% on Thursday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive day and reaching a two-week high. This comes amid mounting fears of energy supply disruptions from the Arabian Gulf region as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to oil tankers.

Undoubtedly, the rise in global oil prices renews fears of accelerating inflation, which may push global central banks to raise interest rates in the near term—a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of cutting or holding rates steady for a long period.

Japanese Interest Rates

- The Bank of Japan is expected to abandon its hawkish stance during its meeting next week, despite keeping interest rates steady.

- Governor Kazuo Ueda has recently refrained from pledging to raise interest rates in April, given the war's impact on economic projections.

- Market pricing for the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point in April is currently stable around 10%.

- To re-price these probabilities, investors await further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

The Canadian dollar stabilized near a six-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, supported by rising oil prices, while investors await signs of diplomatic progress toward ending the war in the Middle East.

The Canadian currency, known as the "loonie," was traded largely unchanged at the 1.3660 level against the U.S. dollar, or the equivalent of 73.21 U.S. cents. On Tuesday, it had recorded its strongest intraday level since March 13 at 1.3629.

Analysts at Monex Europe indicated that recent market movements reflect investors focusing more on global risk appetite rather than domestic economic factors.

This came amid escalating tensions after Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, strengthening its control over this vital maritime corridor, following President Donald Trump’s suspension of attacks without signs of resuming peace talks.

Analysts explained that if the ceasefire extension continues and oil prices stabilize, the Canadian dollar could see a recovery toward its recent highs; however, they expected trading to remain volatile in the absence of tangible diplomatic progress.

Conversely, the U.S. dollar, which serves as a safe haven, rose against a basket of major currencies, while oil prices climbed by approximately 4.2% to reach $93.42 per barrel.

Oil is one of Canada's most significant exports, but these exports have faced pressure over the past year due to high U.S. tariffs on key sectors such as automotive, steel, and aluminum. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled for review by July 1.

In this context, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasized that his country will not allow the United States to dictate terms during the agreement review.

Regarding domestic data, figures showed that new home prices declined by 0.2% in March compared to February, while investors await the release of February retail sales data on Friday, with expectations of a 0.9% month-on-month increase.

Canadian government bond yields were mixed across various maturities, with the 10-year bond yield falling by less than one basis point to reach 3.478%.

Copper prices rose on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire with Iran, boosting market risk appetite, although continued uncertainty regarding the Middle East conflict limited the metal's gains.

The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 0.3% to reach $13,270 per metric ton during official trading.

The price spread between copper contracts on the U.S. Comex exchange and their LME counterparts—a prominent feature of the copper market in 2025—re-emerged this month, encouraging shipments toward the United States.

Kostas Bintas, global head of metals at Mercuria, stated that copper flows to the United States will continue as long as this price differential persists, likely until July, when a decision regarding potential tariffs on the metal is expected.

Data showed that copper inventories in Comex warehouses have risen by 2% since mid-April to reach 544,887 tons, approaching the record high of 545,867 tons recorded in February. In contrast, LME inventories stood at 395,575 tons following recent declines in its Asian warehouses.

During the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, participants expressed cautious optimism regarding long-term copper prospects while warning of short-term demand risks should the Middle East conflict persist for an extended period.

In other metal markets, aluminum is already experiencing a supply shock described as a "black swan" due to war-related disruptions, which could lead to significant supply shortages this year, according to a senior metals analyst at Mercuria.

LME aluminum rose by 1.3% to $3,604.5 per ton, after having recorded a four-year high of $3,672 on April 16.

Nickel also climbed by 0.8% to $18,370 per ton, supported by expectations of a global market deficit this year. Zinc rose 0.7% to $3,467, while lead declined 0.6% to $1,951, and tin increased by 0.5% to $50,175.

Bitcoin rose above the $78,000 level on Wednesday, supported by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of an indefinite ceasefire extension with Iran, alongside continued institutional demand flows that boosted market sentiment.

The world's largest digital currency recorded a 3.7% increase to reach $78,712.4 by 09:49 AM ET (13:49 GMT), after touching a 24-hour high of $78,780 in its third consecutive session of gains.

This rise followed Trump's announcement to extend the truce with Iran indefinitely, noting that the decision came partly in response to requests from Pakistani officials to allow more time for peace negotiations in Islamabad. However, this extension remains unilateral, with ambiguity surrounding whether Tehran will officially agree to it.

Despite the truce, tensions have not fully subsided; the United States maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while disruptions continued in the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, markets interpreted these developments as a short-term de-escalation, leading to a decline in oil prices and a weakening of the dollar after previous gains.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a hybrid asset—combining its status as a high-risk asset with its role as a hedge against geopolitical instability—attracting investment flows when markets price in a mix of relief and uncertainty.

On the other hand, institutional demand provided additional support for prices after MicroStrategy revealed a Bitcoin purchase worth $2.5 billion, in one of its largest deals ever. The company explained that it bought 34,164 units during the week ending April 19, at an average price of approximately $74,395 per coin, raising its total holdings to about 815,000 Bitcoin, with a total value of nearly $61.6 billion.

This deal was primarily funded through capital market activities, as the company raised approximately $2.18 billion from the sale of high-yield preferred shares, in addition to $366 million from the issuance of common stock. These financial instruments, offering yields of nearly 11.5%, have become a primary means for increasing the company's Bitcoin exposure while minimizing the negative effects of ownership dilution.

In contrast, the legal arena saw a notable development as Justin Sun, founder of the Tron network, filed a federal lawsuit in California against the digital currency project affiliated with the Trump family. He accused the project of freezing his tokens and withdrawing his voting rights, while threatening to destroy his assets without notice or legal justification.

Sun stated that he had no choice but to resort to the judiciary, noting that he does not believe Trump would approve of these actions if he were aware of them. Sun had become the largest individual holder of the project's tokens after investing $75 million in late 2024, before his wallet was subsequently blacklisted.

In the broader cryptocurrency market, alternative coins recorded limited gains; Ethereum rose 4.3% to $2,412, while Ripple climbed 1.7% to $1.46.