Copper prices declined during Friday trading as the U.S. dollar climbed against most major currencies, with investors engaging in profit-taking after the metal’s recent rally.

Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports pushed U.S. copper prices to record highs, but analysts expect those prices to gradually decline in the coming months as traders offload the large stockpiles they had accumulated in anticipation of the tariffs.

The tariff follows a U.S. Commerce Department investigation launched back in February, with early expectations suggesting a 25% duty. However, the mere anticipation led to stockpiling and pushed COMEX copper prices up 25% from January through this past Monday.

On Tuesday, Trump’s announcement sent COMEX copper to an all-time high of $5.6820 per pound — or $12,526 per metric ton — more than $2,920 above the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which stood around $9,600 per ton.

Expected Price Drop as U.S. Demand Slows

Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said: “Once the noise around Trump’s tariffs subsides, we expect U.S. copper prices to fall and converge with global prices, as domestic consumption will be delayed.”

Price noted that U.S. demand for copper is weak, forecasting a 16% drop this year to 1.32 million tons compared to last year. The decline in demand is partly due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which has slowed economic growth. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturing data — a key sector for copper consumption — shows the industry remains in contraction.

Copper Stockpile Surplus in the U.S.

According to Macquarie’s analysis using trade data from January to May and shipping data from June, U.S. copper imports reached around 881,000 metric tons in the first half of the year, while actual demand stood at just 441,000 tons.

This indicates a surplus of 440,000 tons — 107,000 tons in visible COMEX inventories and another 333,000 tons in unreported stockpiles or pre-purchased material embedded in industrial supply chains.

Rising U.S. Inventories vs. Falling London Stocks

A large portion of this surplus has been stored in COMEX warehouses, where copper inventories reached 221,788 short tons (equivalent to 201,203 metric tons) as of July 7 — a surge of over 127,000 short tons, or 135%, since late March when global shipments began arriving at U.S. ports.

In contrast, inventories at the London Metal Exchange have dropped by 66% since mid-February, falling to around 90,000 metric tons by late June — the lowest since August 2023.

Some of the U.S. stockpiles are stored in free trade zones, meaning they haven’t officially entered through customs and can be re-exported more easily. However, copper held in COMEX warehouses under duty-paid status would be more complex — though not impossible — to re-export.

Duncan Hobbs, head of research at Concord Resources, said: “There’s nothing preventing the re-export of copper that’s cleared customs... but it would require a financial incentive, like a drop in the COMEX premium.”

Uncertainty Over Tariff Exemptions Could Weigh on Prices

Another factor that may weaken U.S. copper prices is the potential for certain countries to be exempted from the tariffs, which could erode the COMEX premium, according to industry sources.

Chile is considered a strong candidate for exemption, having accounted for 70% of U.S. copper imports in 2023 — around 646,000 metric tons, according to Trade Data Monitor. The U.S. also maintains a trade surplus with Chile, which could make a political case for exemption.

Citi analysts, including Tom Mulqueen, expect that countries like Canada, Chile, and Mexico may ultimately face a reduced tariff of 25%, as they are deemed “key partners.”

Challenges for Traders Sitting on Expensive Copper

For now, traders who rushed to front-run the tariffs find themselves holding some of the world’s most expensive copper — which may be hard to sell unless the U.S. market maintains its current premium.

On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.2% to 97.8 at 16:07 GMT, reaching a high of 97.9 and a low of 97.5.

As for copper trading, September futures were up 0.9% at $5.54 per pound as of 15:55 GMT.

Bitcoin set a new record high on Friday after jumping more than 6% in just a few hours earlier in the day.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed above $118,000 for the first time in its history, after trading below $80,000 as recently as April.

The broader crypto market also posted strong gains, with Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) all rising more than 7%.

This new record lifted Bitcoin’s market capitalization to over $2.3 trillion, placing it ahead of tech giants like Alphabet (Google) and Meta, and even surpassing silver — though it remains a fraction of gold’s estimated $22 trillion market cap.

The exceptional rally began after U.S. President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” on April 2, triggering turmoil in traditional markets and driving both institutional and retail investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against large-scale economic disruption.

Gadi Chait, Head of Investment at Xapo Bank, told The Independent: “Bitcoin has shattered expectations, breaking out from a quiet trading range into a full-on surge culminating in a record high.”

He added, “What’s happening behind the scenes is a frenzied institutional accumulation. What’s remarkable is that this steady flow of institutional capital has persisted despite extreme global economic uncertainty — a stress test many so-called ‘volatile’ assets have failed.”

The latest surge has fueled bullish forecasts. A recent Finder survey of 22 experts showed a median year-end price target of $145,167.

To reach that target, Bitcoin would need to rise another $27,000 in the second half of the year, after gaining nearly $25,000 in the first.

Kadan Stadelmann, CTO of Komodo and one of the survey participants, said: “We likely still have at least six months left in this bull cycle. If history repeats, I’d expect a peak in Q1 of 2026, followed by a bear market.”

Is Bitcoin Eyeing the $120K Milestone?

Bitcoin trading volume in the past 24 hours exceeded $81 billion — the highest since January, just before Trump was sworn in for his second term, and since the cryptocurrency dropped to $84,000 in February.

Kushal Manupati, COO and Regional Growth Lead at Binance South Asia, told Decrypt: “Bitcoin nearing the $120,000 barrier and hitting a record high of $118,000 marks a pivotal moment for the digital asset industry.”

He added: “Large institutions are now entering the market in force, adding long-term liquidity and credibility to the sector.”

From a broader perspective, analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that the market has grown largely unfazed by the White House’s repeated shifts in tariff policy. Business confidence remains firm, despite the latest statements from the Trump administration.

They pointed to a positive signal emerging from industrial metals markets — particularly copper, often called “Dr. Copper” for its economic forecasting reputation: “Copper prices are rising on stronger industrial demand and improved liquidity, a healthy indicator.”

What Comes Next?

As Bitcoin enters uncharted price territory, traders are now gauging how long the euphoria might last. Bitcoin inflows to exchanges — a key measure of how much BTC is being moved for trading — have continued to decline since October, currently sitting at just 2.39 million, the lowest level in three years, according to CryptoQuant.

Ryan Li, Senior Analyst at Bitget Research, said: “Strong financial market performance, stable money supply, and the passing of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ are all bullish signals for Bitcoin.”

He added, “Given these conditions, Bitcoin is in an excellent position to break past its previous highs in July, with a strong chance of reaching $120,000 before the month ends.”

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday as investors balanced signs of near-term market tightness against the possibility of a significant supply surplus this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Markets also turned their focus to U.S. tariffs and potential sanctions on Russia.

Brent crude futures rose by 40 cents, or 0.58%, to $69.04 a barrel by 10:27 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 45 cents, or 0.68%, to $67.02 a barrel.

At these levels, Brent is set to record a weekly gain of about 1.1%, while WTI remains largely unchanged from last week’s close.

The International Energy Agency said Friday that the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, driven by surging demand from peak summer refinery operations to meet travel and electricity generation needs.

September Brent contracts are currently trading at a $1.10 premium over October contracts, indicating tightness in near-term supply.

John Evans, analyst at PVM, wrote in a note on Friday: "Civilians, whether in the air or on the roads, are demonstrating a strong desire to travel."

Short-Term Tightness vs Long-Term Surplus

Despite current tightness, the IEA raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year while trimming its demand outlook — a signal that the market could swing into surplus.

Commerzbank analysts wrote in a note: "OPEC+ will increase output rapidly and aggressively. There is a risk of a significant oversupply. Still, oil prices are receiving short-term support."

One sign of near-term demand strength: Saudi Arabia is preparing to ship around 51 million barrels of crude to China in August — the largest shipment of its kind in over two years.

However, looking further ahead, OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand between 2026 and 2029, citing slower growth in China, according to its annual "World Oil Outlook 2025" report released Thursday.

Tariffs and Sanctions Add to Market Jitters

Both benchmark oil contracts had fallen over 2% on Thursday, as investors grew nervous about the impact of President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies on global economic growth and oil demand.

Analysts at ING wrote in a note to clients: "Prices recovered some losses after President Trump said he plans to make a ‘major announcement’ about Russia on Monday — a statement that could stir fears of new sanctions on Moscow."

Trump has recently voiced frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in peace efforts with Ukraine and the intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

Meanwhile, in Brussels, the European Commission is preparing to propose a flexible price cap on Russian oil this week as part of a new sanctions package.