Copper prices rose during Wednesday’s trading after declining in the previous session following Iran’s denial of holding talks with the United States to end the war in the Middle East. However, the red metal found support from Washington’s announcement of a 15-point document outlining conditions to end the war with Tehran.

The metal had ended Monday’s session up 2% after Donald Trump spoke of “very good and productive negotiations” with Tehran and decided to delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

The New York Times reported that the United States sent a peace plan to Iran to end the war, citing unnamed officials. It added that the 15-point plan was delivered via Pakistan. However, the two sides remain far apart, while mutual attacks continue. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the United States intends to deploy the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

The peace plan report came after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States is “currently holding negotiations” with Iran, adding that Tehran is “acting rationally” and appears open to reaching a peace agreement. In contrast, Iranian state media said the country will not accept US ceasefire efforts.

Eva Manthey, a commodities analyst at ING, said: “Copper is easing today after yesterday’s rebound, as geopolitical optimism fades.”

Oil prices declined on Wednesday, easing pressure on industrial metals. This suggests a reduction in concerns that central banks will have less room to cut interest rates, and that higher fuel costs could weaken global economic growth.

Citigroup lowered its copper price forecast to $11,000 per ton over the next three months, down from a previous estimate of $14,000.

The bank noted that industrial metals may continue to decline as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as investors scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside weaker cyclical growth expectations and continued risk reduction across high-risk assets.

Elevated copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange, which reached 359,275 tons — the highest level in nearly eight years — also weighed on prices, with additional inflows of 11,800 tons recorded on Monday, more than half of which entered exchange warehouses in Kaohsiung.

The spread between cash prices and three-month contracts remains in a steep contango at around $92 per ton.

On the other hand, renewed demand from China — the world’s largest copper consumer — helped limit losses, particularly after copper inventories on Chinese exchanges declined by 5.2% last week.

In US trading, copper futures for May delivery rose 1.8% to $5.55 per pound as of 15:07 GMT.

Bitcoin rose slightly on Wednesday, holding above the $71,000 level, as investors balanced ongoing tensions in the Middle East against cautious signs of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 1% at $71,197.8 as of 02:27 AM Eastern Time (06:27 GMT).

Bitcoin had fallen below the $70,000 level earlier in the week as the conflict escalated, prompting investors to avoid risk and weighing on digital assets.

Strikes on Tehran despite Trump’s comments on negotiations

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Washington is “currently in negotiations” with Iran, adding that Tehran is “speaking rationally” and appears open to reaching a peace agreement.

Reports that the United States had presented Iran with a 15-point proposal to end the conflict also supported hopes for de-escalation.

However, conflicting developments kept investors cautious, as media reports indicated that Israel carried out strikes in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Wednesday, highlighting the fragility of any diplomatic progress.

Oil movements support risk appetite

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, giving up part of their recent gains, as markets priced in the possibility of reduced supply risks in the region, supporting overall risk appetite.

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly moving in line with global risk sentiment, reacting to shifts in geopolitical tensions and energy markets, with their earlier losses coinciding with rising oil prices.

US stock index futures also rose during Asian trading, alongside gains in Asian equities.

Altcoins post limited gains

Despite the volatile backdrop, Bitcoin showed resilience near the $70,000 level, with analysts pointing to continued institutional interest and improving liquidity conditions as supportive factors.

In the altcoin market, Ethereum rose 1.2% to $2,172, while Ripple gained 0.4% to $1.42.

Oil prices fell about 5% on Wednesday after reports indicated that the United States had presented Iran with a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war, boosting hopes for progress toward a ceasefire, despite continued airstrikes between Israel and Iran.

Brent crude futures declined by $5.66, or 5.42%, to $98.83 per barrel as of 10:22 GMT, after touching $97.57 earlier in the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $4.82, or 5.22%, to $87.53, after hitting a low of $86.72.

Both benchmark crudes had risen about 5% on Tuesday before trimming gains in later volatile trading.

Despite the price decline driven by ceasefire expectations, analysts pointed to parallel reports of US troop deployments in the Middle East, reflecting continued uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his country is making progress in negotiations to end the war, while a source confirmed that Washington had already presented the proposal to Iran.

However, some analysts expressed doubts about the seriousness of this progress, expecting market volatility to persist.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., warned that continued threats by Iran to the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil prices between $100 and $150 per barrel for years, adding that “we will see a global recession” if prices reach $150.

Disruptions to oil shipments through Hormuz

Developments in the Middle East remain the main driver of oil price movements, as the war has led to a near halt in shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global supplies.

The International Energy Agency described the situation as the largest disruption to oil supplies ever, with estimated daily losses of about 20 million barrels, implying a loss of roughly 500 million barrels over 25 days.

Analysts noted that the market remains tight despite the possibility of de-escalation, stressing that the resumption of flows through the strait does not necessarily mean a quick return of halted production, given uncertainty over the durability of any ceasefire agreement.

In this context, Iran informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels may pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided coordination with Iranian authorities.

To mitigate the impact of supply disruptions, oil exports from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port on the Red Sea rose to about 4 million barrels per day last week, compared to lower levels before the war.

Meanwhile, oil loading operations at Russia’s Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the Baltic Sea were halted after Ukrainian drone attacks triggered a major fire, in one of the largest strikes targeting Russian oil export facilities during the ongoing four-year war, adding to uncertainty in global markets.

The British pound held steady during Wednesday’s trading, as traders remained cautious about efforts to end the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, while assessing the potential economic implications of the conflict.

Sterling recorded little change against the US dollar, trading at $1.3402.

This came as Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes, while the Iranian military rejected US President Donald Trump’s claims that Washington is holding direct negotiations with Tehran to end the war.

Meanwhile, oil prices declined, with Brent crude futures falling about 5.4% to $95.82 per barrel.

On the economic data front, official figures showed that UK inflation held steady at 3% in February, unchanged from January, ahead of expectations that it could rise again as the Middle East war impacts prices.

Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist at Aberdeen, said the current inflation report “only reflects pre-war conditions,” noting that expectations have shifted significantly with the rise in energy prices.

Inflation expectations have risen notably since the outbreak of the war, driven by higher oil prices.

In a sign of the conflict’s impact on the British economy, a survey released on Tuesday showed that UK business activity grew at the slowest pace in six months in March, while manufacturing input costs recorded the largest monthly increase since 1992.

Bank of England interest rates

As economic expectations shift, interest rate expectations for the Bank of England have also changed.

Markets currently price about a 67% probability that the bank will raise interest rates at its next meeting in April, with expectations for at least two increases by the end of the year, compared to pre-war expectations of two rate cuts in 2026.

However, many economists appear more cautious than markets regarding the likelihood of rate hikes.

Andrew Wishart, Chief Economist at Berenberg, said the bank’s response will depend on whether rising energy prices lead to a broader inflation wave across goods and services, noting that he does not expect this to happen.

He added that slowing economic growth and slack in the labor market point to limited ability for companies to raise prices, as well as limited capacity for workers to demand wage increases, reducing the likelihood of an inflationary spiral.

At the close of trading, the British pound also held steady against the euro at 86.54 pence.