Goldman Sachs and Citi raise copper price forecasts on supply disruptions and strong US demand

Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end copper price forecast by more than 10%, now expecting copper to reach $13,735 per ton compared to its previous estimate of $12,465 per ton, citing lower mine production expectations and tighter market conditions outside the United States.

The bank said it reduced its forecast for global mine supply in 2026 by 350,000 tons following production disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It added that neither operation is expected to return to full production capacity before 2028.

Larger global market deficit

Stronger-than-expected US copper imports also prompted the bank to raise its estimate for the copper market deficit outside the United States to 640,000 tons, up from a previous forecast of just 60,000 tons.

Goldman Sachs expects the market to remain supported by structural demand linked to the energy transition, grid expansion, and clean energy investments, despite ongoing risks from potential US tariff policies.

In a research note, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “US copper imports exceeded expectations during the first half of 2026, and we expect imports to accelerate again next month, supported by currently available arbitrage opportunities.”

They added that the bank’s base-case scenario assumes the United States will continue postponing tariffs on refined copper.

Citi is even more bullish

Meanwhile, Citi also raised its copper price outlook, forecasting copper to reach $14,500 per ton this month and $15,000 per ton within the next year.

Citi analysts said: “Ongoing concerns about potential US tariffs on refined copper could continue supporting market sentiment at least until the trade policy review at the end of June.”

The bank also noted that growth in mine supply and recycled copper production has been weaker than expected, while demand related to artificial intelligence and energy transition projects remains resilient.

Prices move higher

Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.4% to $13,827.50 per ton.

Meanwhile, copper futures traded on the US Comex exchange climbed 2.6% to $6.55 per pound, widening the premium over London prices.

Companies that could benefit from higher copper prices

Among the companies that may benefit from a sustained rise in copper prices are:

* Freeport-McMoRan

* Southern Copper

* Ero Copper

* Taseko Mines

* Teck Resources

* Hudbay Minerals

* BHP

* Rio Tinto

* Vale

* Anglo American

* Glencore

The upward revisions from major investment banks reflect growing confidence that the copper market is heading into a period of relatively tight supply at a time when global demand is accelerating, driven by data centers, artificial intelligence, renewable energy projects, and electrical infrastructure investments.