About three weeks ago, the copper price on the COMEX exchange fell below the upward trend line that had guided its movements since the beginning of August 2025. Although long-term demand forecasts for the metal remain positive, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are casting a shadow over short-term expectations.

"Dr. Copper"—a nickname given to the metal as an indicator of global economic health—is facing pressure due to the strength of the US dollar and escalating inflation concerns.

During this holiday-shortened week, investors will focus on indicators regarding the direction of inflation through US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

US-Iran war pressures short-term outlook

Copper prices started the year strong, supported by optimism regarding global economic growth. At the end of January 2026, the red metal reached a historical record high, with copper contracts on the COMEX exchange hitting $6.57 per pound.

Since then, the price has declined by approximately 15%.

Despite this drop, the long-term outlook remains positive, as increasing demand from sectors such as:

Electrification

Renewable energy

AI data centers

is expected to lead to a significant deficit in the copper market during 2026.

For instance, AI data centers alone are expected to consume about 500,000 metric tons of copper this year. Meanwhile, global supply chains for the metal continue to face fragility.

However, the uncertainty resulting from the war between the United States and Iran has limited copper's gains.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the most important maritime energy corridors—pushed oil prices to triple-digit levels, causing a shock in energy markets and raising investor fears of a potential economic recession and slowing global growth.

Inflation and the dollar create additional pressure

Increasing inflation concerns have also reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

This hawkish monetary policy trend has bolstered the strength of the US dollar, which places pressure on dollar-denominated copper.

During the coming week, investors will await new inflation indicators, focusing on:

Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday

S Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday

During the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-March, the US central bank kept interest rates unchanged.

In his remarks, the Federal Reserve Chair pointed to the uncertainty resulting from the conflict in the Middle East and its long-term effects on the US economy, explaining that amid an energy shock, inflation may remain elevated at 2.4% for a longer period.

Rising inflation could further support the dollar, making copper more expensive for buyers using other currencies and weakening short-term demand expectations.

Copper price technical analysis

The copper price recorded its second consecutive week of gains, although losses in March ended a seven-month winning streak.

However, the strength of the dollar and uncertainty from the US-Iran war are limiting the red metal's upside.

Copper also lacked the momentum necessary to maintain trading above the previous support area at $5.70 per pound.

The price is currently trading:

Below the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Below the 50-day EMA

Additionally, the price remains below the upward trend line that has guided price action since mid-2025.

Short-term outlook

The copper price is likely to remain under pressure during the coming week as the Middle East conflict continues to impact demand forecasts.

The price may face resistance near the 50-day moving average at the $5.69 level.

If it manages to rise above this level, it may face additional resistance near the convergence point of technical indicators at $5.75.

Conversely, if the price falls below the current support area at $5.50, it could move toward the $5.46 level.

Bitcoin rose above the $69,000 level on Monday following reports that Iran and the United States received a proposed ceasefire framework that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as early as Monday, boosting appetite for high-risk assets.

The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading up 3.4% at $69,065.9 by 03:38 AM ET (07:38 GMT).

Ceasefire proposal

A Reuters report on Monday stated that Iran and the United States received a plan to end hostilities that could take effect immediately and allow for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, citing a source familiar with the proposals.

The report explained that the proposed framework, prepared by Pakistan and shared overnight with both parties, involves a two-stage process: an immediate ceasefire followed by the start of negotiations to reach a broader settlement.

The report indicated that all elements of the proposal must be approved by Monday.

Axios had previously reported that Washington, Tehran, and regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire within a two-stage agreement that could ultimately lead to a permanent end to the conflict.

Continued US pressure

Bitcoin's gains came despite US President Donald Trump continuing to exert pressure on Tehran, stating that Iran has until Tuesday evening to restore oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, or face attacks on strategic infrastructure.

Trump clarified that the deadline expires at 8:00 PM ET, warning that Iranian power plants and bridges could become targets if the maritime corridor remains restricted.

Investors also assessed stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for longer.

Other cryptocurrencies rise

Most alternative cryptocurrencies also rose on Monday as market risk appetite improved.

Ethereum, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, climbed 4.8% to reach $2,135.92.

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency, rose 3.4% to $1.34.

Cardano recorded a jump of about 6%, benefiting from the broad rally in the cryptocurrency market.

Oil prices fell in volatile trading on Monday as investors await clarity regarding the status of talks between the United States and Iran, while concerns persist over supply losses resulting from shipping disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.39 per barrel by 11:09 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 1.2%, or $1.33, to $110.21 per barrel.

Despite this decline, price movements in Asian trading on Monday appeared limited compared to the significant jump seen in the previous session on Thursday, when WTI rose 11% and Brent rose 8%, marking the largest absolute price increase since 2020.

Ceasefire proposal

The United States and Iran received a framework for a plan to end hostilities, but Tehran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately after US President Donald Trump threatened to rain "hell" on the Iranian capital if an agreement is not reached by the end of Tuesday.

Iran also announced that it has drafted its positions and demands in response to the latest ceasefire proposals conveyed through mediators.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE pass, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on ships since the outbreak of war on February 28.

However, shipping data showed that some vessels have crossed the strait since Thursday, including a tanker operated by an Omani company, a container ship owned by a French firm, and a gas carrier owned by a Japanese company, reflecting Iran's policy of allowing passage for vessels belonging to countries it considers friendlier.

Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB research, said the market is trying to understand what to expect in the coming period, adding that the most significant news over the weekend was the passage of some ships through the strait.

He also noted that Europe continues to lose physical volumes of oil and products to Asia as market conditions tighten.

Search for alternative sources

Supply disruptions from the Middle East have prompted refiners to seek alternative sources of crude oil, particularly spot shipments in the United States and the UK's North Sea region.

Spot price premiums for US WTI have jumped to record levels as a result of competition between Asian and European refiners.

Refineries in India have also postponed routine maintenance of their units to meet domestic fuel demand.

Limited production increase from OPEC+

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance, which includes some OPEC members and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for May.

However, this decision is expected to remain largely theoretical, as several major producers in the group are unable to increase production due to the war.

In the same context, Saudi Aramco set the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude for May to Asia at a record premium of $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, an increase of $17 from the previous month.

Disruptions in Russian supplies

At the same time, Russian supplies have recently faced disruptions due to Ukrainian drone attacks on export ports in the Baltic Sea.

Media reports indicated that the export terminal in Ust-Luga resumed loading operations on Saturday after several days of disruption.

Oil exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse are expected to rise to 794,000 metric tons in April, a daily increase of 8.7% compared to the March plan of 755,000 tons, according to Reuters calculations and trader sources.

The dollar stabilized on Monday while the Japanese yen approached the critical level of ¥160 per dollar, as anxious investors assessed escalating war developments with Iran and focused on the final deadline set by US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In a sharp social media post on Easter Sunday, Trump threatened to target power plants and bridges in Iran on Tuesday if the strategic maritime passage is not reopened, setting a precise deadline of 8:00 PM ET.

With most markets in Asia and Europe closed for holidays on Monday, liquidity is expected to be thin while investors focus on the potential for a ceasefire following media reports of a last-ditch effort by negotiators to achieve a breakthrough.

Charu Chanana, head of investment strategy at Saxo Bank in Singapore, said the new deadline announced by Trump carries negative implications for markets, not because investors believe war will break out immediately if the strait is not opened, but because every new ultimatum makes the disruption appear more long-term and impactful on the macroeconomy.

Currency movements

The euro stood at approximately $1.1523, while the British pound was recorded at around $1.3211.

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, eased slightly to 100.12.

The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to $0.69045, fluctuating near its two-month low recorded last week.

Conflicting messages from Washington

In contradictory messages that confused supporters, opponents, and financial markets alike, Trump said in a Fox News interview on Sunday that Iran is negotiating and that a deal could happen by Monday.

Axios also reported that the United States, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could later lead to a permanent end to the war.

Global markets have been in turmoil since the outbreak of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran in late February, with Tehran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass.

Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities, said that if the strait is fully reopened near Trump’s Tuesday deadline, oil prices would fall sharply and high-risk assets would rally strongly.

However, he added that if the United States escalates the conflict, global markets are expected to sharply reprice assets, explaining that investors are awaiting what appears to be a binary event.

Inflation and stagflation fears

The closure of the strait has pushed oil prices well above $100 per barrel, sparking fears of rising inflation and confusing interest rate expectations worldwide.

Concerns over the conflict's impact on economic growth have also rattled markets, with growing talk of stagflation risks.

In this context, traders no longer expect any move by the Federal Reserve before the second half of 2027, compared to expectations at the beginning of the year that indicated two rate cuts in 2026.

Data released last week showed that the US labor market remained relatively stable in March, but economists warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East could pose a downside risk to the economy.

Japanese yen under watch

The Japanese yen stabilized at ¥159.55 per dollar, near its 21-month low recorded last week, as traders monitor the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening to support the currency following strong warnings from officials in recent days.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned currency traders on Friday, confirming that the government is ready to act against speculative moves in the exchange markets as volatility has risen significantly.

However, many doubt the ability of any potential intervention to change the trend at a time when geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is driving strong and sustained demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

The yen has declined by about 1.5% since the start of the war, remaining close to the ¥160 level against the dollar.

Recent data also showed that speculators increased their bearish bets on the yen, with short positions reaching approximately $5.7 billion, the highest level since July 2024 when Japan last intervened in the foreign exchange market.