Copper futures in the United States surged to a new record high on Thursday, widening the price gap versus the global benchmark just one week ahead of the planned implementation of US import tariffs on the metal.

The most actively traded copper contract for September delivery on the COMEX rose 1.2% to $5.888 per pound, after peaking at $5.959.

In contrast, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slipped 0.2% to $9,910 per metric ton during official trading.

The price gap between COMEX copper and the global LME benchmark widened to 31%, up from 29% on Wednesday.

Although this gap remains below the 50% tariff announced by President Donald Trump, markets are closely watching for confirmation of the August 1 deadline and the final list of copper products subject to the duties.

“We remain cautious about the current copper rally,” said Eva Manthey, commodities strategist at ING. “Any shift in Trump’s tariff policy—whether through exemptions or reduced rates—could narrow the COMEX price premium.”

COMEX copper warehouse inventories have surged 163% over the past four months, though inflows have slowed recently.

Manthey added that this trend is likely to continue, improving copper availability outside the US and maintaining global price pressure.

Beyond the looming US copper tariffs, the metals market is also focused on upcoming trade talks between the US and China in Sweden next week, as well as Washington’s negotiations with other nations and ongoing investigations into possible tariffs on critical minerals.

Other LME Metals

- Tin held steady at $34,845 per ton in official trading, after reaching $35,100 earlier in the session—its highest since April 7.

- Aluminum dipped 0.1% to $2,648 per ton.

- Zinc fell 0.3% to $2,853 after both metals touched four-month highs earlier in the day.

- Lead and nickel declined 0.2% to $2,028 and $15,540 per ton, respectively.

The European Central Bank has just announced its interest rate decision following the July 23–24 meeting, leaving rates unchanged at 2.15% — the lowest level since October 2022, in line with most market expectations.

This decision follows a previous rate cut, marking the seventh consecutive reduction. Policymakers at the ECB opted to pause further easing to assess the impact of recent US tariffs on economic activity within the Eurozone.

This decision is considered positive for the euro.

Bitcoin held above $118,700 on Thursday as global digital asset markets faced increasing pressure from profit-taking and continued outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap came under fresh selling pressure as long-term investors took profits, while US-based Bitcoin ETFs continued to record net outflows. This mix of macroeconomic and market-specific factors weighed on prices, despite sustained underlying demand.

At the same time, Tesla (TSLA) reported unrealized gains on its Bitcoin holdings for the second quarter, marking its first crypto-related earnings boost under new US accounting rules, which now allow digital assets to be valued at market price.

Tesla currently holds approximately 11,509 Bitcoin, mostly acquired in 2021. With Bitcoin rising 30% in Q2, these holdings are now valued at around $1.2 billion.

ETF outflows accelerate as market enters consolidation phase

Data from Farside Investors showed that US-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows for a third consecutive day. On Wednesday alone, investors withdrew $86 million from these funds, bringing total weekly outflows to over $285 million.

However, not all ETFs saw losses. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $143 million in net inflows. Still, these gains were outweighed by a large $227 million outflow from Fidelity’s Bitcoin fund, along with moderate withdrawals from Bitwise (BITB) and ARK Invest (ARKB) funds.

Adrian Fritz, Head of Research at 21Shares, said Bitcoin remains fundamentally strong despite short-term volatility. “After surging to a new all-time high near $123,000 in mid-July—driven by a technical golden cross and sustained institutional inflows—Bitcoin has since settled into a tight range between $115,000 and $120,000.”

He added that this sideways movement is supported by strong buying interest near $115,000, creating a healthy liquidity battle on both sides of the market.

Fritz also pointed to a more complex macroeconomic backdrop, referencing President Trump’s July 4 signing of the controversial “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which raised the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion and expanded tax cuts and military spending.

Although crypto-friendly provisions like staking and airdrop tax exemptions were removed from the final version, Fritz said the broader implications may still support Bitcoin in the long run.

“Increased borrowing and fiscal spending typically lead to long-term inflationary pressure, which in turn drives demand for hard assets like gold and Bitcoin.”

He also cited newly released US CPI data, which showed inflation rising to 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, as further evidence of sustained inflationary trends.

Tesla posts Bitcoin gains amid challenging quarter

Tesla’s Q2 earnings came in below market expectations, with revenue of $22.5 billion versus a forecast of $22.64 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.40, slightly under the expected $0.42. This marks a 12% year-over-year revenue decline—the company’s steepest drop in over a decade.

Operating income also fell to $923 million, well below the expected $1.23 billion. Revenue from regulatory credit sales dropped to $439 million, down from $890 million in the same quarter last year.

However, Tesla’s Bitcoin holdings emerged as a bright spot. The company recorded unrealized gains under the new 2024 accounting standards, and these were included in its reported financials, offering a modest boost amid weaker vehicle sales.

Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Thursday, supported by optimism surrounding US trade negotiations that may ease pressure on the global economy, in addition to a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories.

Brent crude futures climbed 79 cents, or 1.15%, to $69.30 per barrel as of 09:34 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 83 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.08 per barrel.

Yaniv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy, stated: “The drawdown in US crude inventories, along with progress in trade talks, is providing some support to prices.”

Two European diplomats said on Wednesday that the European Union and the United States are nearing a trade agreement that may include a baseline 15% tariff on European imports to the US, with the possibility of exempting certain goods — a move that could pave the way for another major trade deal following the recent pact with Japan.

Supply-Side Support

Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that US crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels — a drop that exceeded analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll, which had forecast a draw of just 1.6 million barrels.

At the same time, reports of loading delays for Kazakhstan’s CPC crude exports via the Black Sea due to Russian administrative hurdles, along with news of contamination in Azerbaijani crude shipments at Turkey’s Ceyhan port, added further support to prices, according to a note by analyst John Evans at PVM Associates.

Evans added that the continuation of this support depends on how long these disruptions persist.

However, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry stated on Thursday — as reported by Interfax — that the country has not halted oil loading through Russian ports.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said: “Uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations, along with peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, is limiting further upside for prices.” He expects WTI crude to remain within a range of $60 to $70 per barrel.

Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul on Wednesday, where they discussed additional prisoner exchange operations, although major differences remain between the two sides on ceasefire conditions and the possibility of a direct meeting between the leaders.

Shah added that the next key indicator to watch is demand, especially as the market is currently in peak consumption season, stating: “Any rise or fall in demand will reflect on refining margins.”