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Gold heads for worst quarterly loss in 13 years as Fed outlook weighs on prices

Economies.com
2026-06-30 19:39 UTC

Gold prices fell on Tuesday and remained on track for their steepest quarterly decline in 13 years, as persistent inflation concerns linked to the Middle East conflict reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

 

Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,008.94 per ounce after touching its lowest level since November earlier in the session. Prices have fallen 11.3% since the start of June.

 

Meanwhile, August gold futures declined 0.4% to $4,022.70 per ounce.

 

The precious metal is on course for its first quarterly loss since 2024 and its largest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2013.

 

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding asset by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing investments.

 

“Markets are somewhat concerned about how stable the memorandum of understanding really is, and gold is under pressure because investors are not seeing much light at the end of the tunnel,” said Edward Meir, analyst at Marex.

 

Senior US envoys arrived in Doha, but a Qatari official said there would be no high-level meeting with Iran, raising doubts about progress toward a lasting end to the Iran conflict.

 

Higher-for-longer outlook

 

At the same time, US inflation remains stubbornly elevated and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

 

Meir said markets increasingly expect interest rates to remain higher for longer, with the possibility of additional tightening, a backdrop that continues to pressure gold prices.

 

Traders are currently pricing in roughly a 65% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

 

Investors are now awaiting ADP private-sector employment data on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for further clues about the Fed’s policy path.

 

In a separate development, a survey conducted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum showed that central banks are becoming more inclined to reduce their exposure to the US dollar over the next decade due to rising geopolitical concerns, while increasing their gold holdings in the near term.

 

Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.8% to $58.2585 per ounce and is heading for its worst quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2020.

 

Platinum declined 0.7% to $1,564.34 per ounce, while palladium edged up 0.2% to $1,215.94 per ounce.

 

Both platinum and palladium remain on track to post monthly and quarterly losses.

How the Hormuz crisis pushed Southeast Asia toward becoming a solar power force

Economies.com
2026-06-30 19:26 UTC

Although the United States and Iran have stepped back from the brink of a full-scale war, the ceasefire that followed nearly four months of fighting continues to face pressure amid renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. One consequence of the crisis, however, has already become clear: the shift toward clean energy is accelerating, and there are few signs that it will slow down.

 

The latest conflict is only the newest in a series of disruptions that have shaken global oil and gas markets in recent years, prompting governments around the world to reassess their dependence on imported fossil fuels and highlighting the energy security benefits offered by solar power.

 

No region was more exposed to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Asia. Before the United States and Israel launched their joint military campaign against Iran on February 28, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas trade passed through the strait each day, moving eastward from the Gulf.

 

Of the approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products that flowed through the waterway daily before the conflict, around 80% of the oil and 90% of the natural gas was destined for Asian markets.

 

When the strait was closed in response to the military campaign, Asian economies were among the first and hardest hit as energy supplies were disrupted. Southeast Asia proved particularly vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on imported energy and its limited ability to absorb major price shocks.

 

The consequences were not merely theoretical. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in March, while governments across the region adopted measures ranging from energy rationing and remote work policies to four-day workweeks in an effort to ease the strain.

 

Yet the same crisis also triggered a long-awaited renewable energy boom that could ultimately leave the region more secure, more independent, and better positioned to control its own energy future.

 

Rooftop solar systems are expanding rapidly across countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia, as households and businesses search for alternatives amid rising energy costs and growing concerns over grid reliability.

 

The trend reflects a broader shift in how governments view energy security. Historically, fossil fuels were considered the most dependable source of power, while solar and wind energy were often viewed as less reliable because of variable output and relatively immature supply chains.

 

That perception is now changing.

 

After months of energy disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, renewable energy is increasingly being viewed as the more resilient option and one that is less vulnerable to geopolitical risks.

 

David Frykman, general partner at Swedish venture capital firm Norrsken, wrote in an opinion article for Fortune: “Solar and wind power cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or cut off by a foreign power. Every terawatt-hour of domestic renewable energy is a terawatt-hour that no adversary can weaponize.”

 

Oil and gas must be sourced from countries with large natural reserves, creating geopolitical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Solar and wind power, by contrast, are far more decentralized and can be generated in varying degrees across most regions where people live.

 

Beyond these strategic advantages, solar energy has also become the world’s cheapest source of electricity, making the transition toward renewables both an economic and political necessity for countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, which have already felt the consequences of heavy dependence on imported energy.

 

The discussion is no longer solely about climate change. Solar power is increasingly viewed as a practical solution from both an economic and geopolitical perspective.

 

As Forbes previously noted, “For years, clean energy was framed as a moral imperative. Now it is simply an economic and geopolitical necessity. This is not just about emissions; it is about resilience and price stability.”

 

The transformation is likely to do more than shield Southeast Asian energy systems from volatility in global fuel markets. It could also reshape influence within the global energy sector, shifting part of that power toward China.

 

China’s dominant position across renewable energy manufacturing and supply chains places it in a strong position to become an increasingly indispensable trading partner for emerging economies pursuing energy independence.

 

The Philippines offers one of the clearest examples. The country has become the second-largest destination for Chinese solar exports this year, behind only the Netherlands and ahead of Pakistan, traditionally one of the largest buyers of Chinese solar equipment.

 

According to energy think tank Ember, Chinese solar panel shipments to the Philippines exceeded 4,000 megawatts during the first four months of 2026 alone.

US stocks head for strongest quarterly gain in years

Economies.com
2026-06-30 14:45 UTC

Major Wall Street indexes remained on track Tuesday to close June with their strongest quarterly performance in years, highlighting the resilience of US equities despite ongoing geopolitical challenges.

 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on course to post their best quarterly performances in six years, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading for its strongest quarterly gain since 2022.

 

“Investors still don’t see a clear end to this rally,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. “Every time the market experiences a pullback, it seems to create another buying opportunity.”

 

At 10:08 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.72 points, or 0.01%, at 52,186.46.

 

The S&P 500 gained 24.96 points, or 0.34%, to 7,465.39, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 191.73 points, or 0.76%, to 26,011.87.

 

Despite the strong quarterly performance, recent weakness in large-cap technology stocks has left both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track to end a two-month winning streak in June. The Dow, meanwhile, has outperformed and is poised to record its third consecutive monthly gain.

 

Some analysts expect the upcoming earnings season to provide fresh support for equities, particularly after last week’s sharp selloff in semiconductor and technology shares.

 

“The technology sector experienced a period of weakness during June, but that can easily reverse as earnings season approaches,” said Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco.

 

Others, however, cautioned that sustaining significant gains during the second half of the year may require meaningful progress in efforts to resolve the conflict between the United States and Iran.

 

Markets are currently pricing in at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike by the end of 2026, according to data compiled by LSEG, marking a sharp shift from expectations at the start of the year, when investors were anticipating rate cuts.

 

Investors are also monitoring the latest job openings and consumer confidence data, while awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh during a major economic conference in Portugal later on Tuesday.

 

The S&P 500 real estate sector fell 1.7%, making it the weakest-performing sector of the day. Seven of the index’s 11 major sectors traded lower.

 

Concentrix shares plunged 20.7% to a record low after the customer experience services provider lowered its full-year revenue and adjusted earnings forecasts.

 

In contrast, AeroVironment shares surged 22% following stronger quarterly revenue results.

 

Morgan Stanley shares slipped 1% after brokerage firm Oppenheimer downgraded several major Wall Street investment banks and advised investors to shift capital toward alternative asset managers.

 

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing issues by a ratio of 1.33-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange and 1.29-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

 

Neither the S&P 500 nor the Nasdaq Composite recorded any new 52-week highs or lows during the session.

Copper rises on AI demand and electrification push

Economies.com
2026-06-30 14:42 UTC

Copper prices rose as demand continues to grow sharply for the metal, driven by the expanding infrastructure needs of artificial intelligence and data centers, which require large volumes of copper wiring and cooling components.

 

In trading, copper futures for September delivery on Wall Street rose 2.3% to $6.30 per pound by 15:23 GMT.

 

Industry leaders increasingly see copper as a potential next major investment theme for global markets.

 

Copper is often described as the “metal of electrification,” though it remains classified as an industrial metal rather than a precious metal.

 

Chile is the world’s largest copper producer. The key question for serious investors is how important copper could become in future investment portfolios.

 

Copper’s long history in Oman

 

Copper has a long history in the Sultanate of Oman, where it was smelted in ancient times when Oman was known as Magan.

 

The metal was also an important part of Oman’s coinage history.

 

According to researchers, during the reign of Sultan Faisal bin Turki between 1888 and 1913, the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman minted pure copper quarter-anna coins.

 

These historic copper coins are believed to have been used in maritime trade across the Indian Ocean and remained in circulation until the 1940s.

 

Copper is still present today, with modern Omani coins retaining copper derivatives in their composition.

 

In an article titled “The Lost Land,” published in Aramco World, John Lawton wrote that “convincing evidence emerged through analysis showing a match between copper artifacts in Sumer and copper ore from Oman.”

 

He added that “Sumerian copper artifacts contained traces of nickel, which is why archaeologists became excited when a prospector from the Anglo-Persian Oil Company reported in 1928 that samples collected from ancient copper mines in Oman contained 0.19% nickel, a level very close to that found in Sumerian copper pieces.”

 

This reflects the movement of copper exports from Magan through Dilmun to Sumer. During the third and second millennia BC, Magan — or Makkan — was the main copper source for the Sumerians.

 

Lawton also noted that in 1973 and 1974, the Oman Exploration Company identified around 44 ancient copper mining sites in northern Oman. Some dated back to the Portuguese occupation in the 17th century, others to the Islamic period in the ninth and tenth centuries, while at least three sites — according to an archaeological survey by Harvard University — dated back to the third millennium BC.

 

Archaeological sites linked to Oman’s copper history can still be found in areas such as Sohar and Rustaq.

 

Copper’s role across history and modern industry

 

The world of metals has evolved dramatically over the centuries.

 

Copper was the first metal to be widely used by humanity, followed later by bronze.

 

As societies developed and the world entered the age of electricity, copper continued its long journey and remains the global standard for electrical wiring and power generation.

 

That is why reports of copper wire and cable theft are common around the world. Copper cannot simply be stored away and hidden, because it must be present everywhere to power modern infrastructure.

 

For those drawn to its distinctive color, copper is also used in jewelry, though it requires special care to preserve its appearance.

 

More importantly, copper has now become part of broader financial discussions, whether people invest in it directly or not. Gold earlier attracted attention as prices climbed, then silver moved into focus, and now copper is increasingly taking the spotlight.

 

Financial experts and market analysts may have deeper views on the metal’s future, but for copper enthusiasts, the renewed attention surrounding the metal is a moment worth celebrating.

 

It is also worth remembering that mining activity often reveals more than one metal. In areas where copper is found, gold and silver may also be present in varying quantities.