Crude oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday and were on track for sharp weekly losses as supply concerns continued to ease with more stranded tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz, despite a cargo vessel being struck near Oman on Thursday.

Brent crude futures fell $2.61, or 3.47%, to $72.65 a barrel by 10:37 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $2.46, or 3.42%, to $69.46 a barrel.

Brent was heading for a weekly decline of around 9.8%, while WTI was trading about 9.3% lower than last Thursday’s close, ahead of market closures for last Friday’s public holiday.

“The dominant market view still appears to be that an oil supply glut is likely to emerge soon,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM.

Shipping data from the London Stock Exchange showed that Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco resumed crude loadings on Friday at its Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf after a suspension that lasted nearly four months.

The data showed that two very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each capable of loading up to two million barrels, had begun taking on cargoes from the terminal, while another tanker was waiting nearby.

Supply concerns ease despite Strait of Hormuz tensions

“There is broad-based selling across the market as traders react to rising oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz, while Chinese crude demand has yet to show any meaningful increase,” said June Goh, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Sparta Commodities.

The two oil benchmarks had climbed more than 2% on Thursday after a cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, prompting the United Nations shipping agency to suspend its voluntary evacuation program.

Two US officials told Reuters that Iran fired on the vessel as it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, meanwhile, said the safety of ships operating outside designated routes in the strait could not be guaranteed.

Data released on Thursday showed crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose this week to their highest level since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran in February, supported by the ceasefire agreement that reopened the waterway, although total traffic remains well below pre-war daily averages.

“If transit volumes fail to increase further over the coming week, market skepticism is likely to grow, which could result in another rise in oil prices,” Commerzbank analysts said on Friday.

Separately, Russian authorities are considering imposing a ban on diesel exports for several months, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS on Friday.

Russia is one of the world’s largest diesel exporters, but it has faced fuel supply disruptions following a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting oil refineries and other energy infrastructure across the country.

The US dollar fell against most major currencies on Friday as expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes eased slightly following the latest economic data and lower oil prices, allowing the Japanese yen — which remains in a zone that could trigger official intervention — to regain some strength.

Despite the decline, the dollar remained on track to end the week higher and was still heading for its strongest monthly performance since July 2025, with gains of just over 2.3%.

Data released on Thursday showed that one of the key US inflation indicators came in line with economists’ expectations. At the same time, oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday, helping cool market expectations for further interest rate increases.

Dollar selling is expected to remain limited for now, as investors continue to focus on interest rate differentials among major economies. Traders still expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates given the strength of the US economy, while lower energy prices have pushed back expectations for near-term policy moves by institutions such as the European Central Bank.

“We’ve seen some profit-taking, perhaps related to month-end flows, but I think the current dollar move could extend a little further,” said Nick Kennedy, FX strategist at Lloyds Bank in London.

“Overall, interest rate differentials are once again driving market movements,” he added.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 101.19 after gaining momentum during the European session in London.

The index had already pulled back slightly from the more-than-one-year high reached earlier this week.

The euro rose about one-third of a percent to $1.13321, while sterling gained 0.25% to $1.3219.

US money markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year.

Japanese yen remains in the danger zone amid intervention concerns

The Japanese yen rose 0.1% against the dollar to ¥161.60 per dollar after weakening to a two-year low of ¥161.95 on Thursday. A move beyond ¥161.96 would place the Japanese currency at its weakest level since 1986.

Many market participants view a move beyond ¥160 per dollar as a red line for Japanese officials that could trigger intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Several banks rushed to revise their forecasts for the timing of the next Bank of Japan rate hike after data released on Friday showed Tokyo core inflation accelerated in June, providing additional support for the yen.

Kamal Sharma, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Bank of America, said there are reasonable arguments for why Japanese authorities have not intervened so far.

“The yen is not the currency experiencing the most significant move. By G10 standards, we have not seen particularly sharp or excessive moves specifically tied to the yen,” Sharma said.

He added: “The market is positioned short yen, but the pace of the move may not yet justify intervention.”

USD/JPY has risen only 0.17% so far this week.

In other currency markets, the Australian dollar slipped 0.14% to US$0.6901.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin edged up 0.2% to $59,481, trimming earlier gains after falling earlier this week to its lowest level since September 2024.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Friday, extending their recovery for a second consecutive session from seven-month lows, supported by bargain buying around the $4,000-an-ounce level and the current slowdown in the US dollar.

US inflation data came broadly in line with expectations, while mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials reduced the likelihood of US interest rate hikes later this year.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 0.6% to $4,050.77 an ounce, from an opening level of $4,026.14, after touching an intraday low of $3,983.15.

• At Thursday’s settlement, gold gained 0.7%, its first advance in the past three sessions, as part of a rebound from a seven-month low of $3,959.49 an ounce.

Weekly performance

So far this week, which officially concludes with today’s settlement, gold prices are down around 2.5% and are on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly loss.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell 0.25% on Friday, extending losses for a second straight session and moving further away from a 13-month high, reflecting continued weakness in the greenback against a basket of major and minor currencies.

A weaker US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies.

In addition to ongoing profit-taking, the dollar softened after US inflation data matched expectations, while Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed signals about the path of monetary policy this year.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austin Goolsbee said there is a “glimmer of hope” regarding services inflation, though underlying price pressures remain too elevated and are moving in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation remains too high and that interest rate policy is “well positioned” to reduce price pressures.

US interest rates

• Following the inflation data and Federal Reserve comments, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that markets increased the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at its July meeting from 66% to 72%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike fell from 34% to 28%.

• Markets also raised the probability of no change in interest rates at the December meeting from 16% to 23%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase declined from 84% to 77%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data as well as additional comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, said the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data appeared largely in line with expectations, which is one reason gold prices have remained relatively stable today.

Meger added that inflation pressures will remain the key theme in the period ahead, and that this is one of the reasons behind gold’s decline over recent sessions.

SPDR

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by 6.28 metric tons on Thursday, marking a third consecutive daily decline and bringing total holdings down to 1,007.08 metric tons, the lowest level since September 26, 2025.

The euro rose in European trading on Friday against a basket of global currencies, extending its recovery for a second consecutive session from a 13-month low against the US dollar, supported by bargain buying and a softer US currency following mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Latest economic estimates suggest that lower oil prices are helping ease inflationary pressures on policymakers at the European Central Bank, reducing the likelihood of another European interest rate increase later this year.

The Price

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro rose around 0.1% against the US dollar to $1.1377, up from an opening level of $1.1369, after touching an intraday low of $1.1354.

• The euro ended Thursday’s session up 0.1% against the dollar, its first gain in four sessions, after hitting a 13-month low of $1.1325 the previous day.

Weekly performance

So far this week, which officially concludes with today’s settlement, the single European currency is down around 0.8% against the US dollar and is on track to post a second consecutive weekly loss due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell around 0.1% on Friday, extending losses for a second straight session and moving further away from a 13-month high, reflecting continued easing in the greenback against a basket of major currencies.

In addition to ongoing profit-taking, the dollar weakened after US inflation data came in line with expectations, while Federal Reserve officials delivered mixed signals regarding the path of monetary policy this year.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austin Goolsbee said there is a “glimmer of hope” regarding services inflation, though underlying price pressures remain too elevated and are moving in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation remains too high and that interest rate policy is “well positioned” to reduce price pressures.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices fell more than 1.5% on Friday, resuming losses that were temporarily halted in the previous session, and are on track to test four-month lows amid expectations of smoother crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Lower oil prices help ease concerns about accelerating inflation, reinforcing the case for the European Central Bank to leave monetary policy settings unchanged for an extended period this year.

European interest rates

• Reports: The European Central Bank is considering pausing monetary policy normalization in July if energy prices remain at current levels.

• Money markets currently price the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in July at around 30%.

• Investors are awaiting additional eurozone data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth to reassess those expectations.