Oil prices rose on Friday as fears of renewed military escalation in the Middle East intensified, after Iran published footage showing its special forces storming a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, in light of the absence of any progress regarding the reopening of this vital passage.

And navigation traffic through the Strait, which used to transport about one-fifth of global oil production before the war, remains nearly at a standstill, while Iran's seizure of two cargo ships highlighted the difficulty of Washington's control over traffic in the region.

And Brent crude contracts rose by 2.18 dollars, or 2.1%, to reach 107.25 dollars per barrel by 10:19 GMT, while American West Texas Intermediate crude contracts climbed 1.78 dollars, or 1.9%, to 97.63 dollars.

And on a weekly basis, Brent crude rose by about 18%, and West Texas crude by about 16%, recording the second-largest gains since the outbreak of the war.

And the two crudes had closed at an increase exceeding 3% on Thursday, following reports of air defenses intercepting targets over Tehran, along with news of internal conflict between the hardline and moderate currents within Iran.

And Tamas Varga from the oil brokerage firm PVM said: "There are no signs of de-escalation."

For his part, American President Donald Trump said that Iran might have strengthened its military capabilities "a little" during a two-week truce, but he added that the American military is capable of eliminating them "in one day." And he had announced on Wednesday the extension of the ceasefire indefinitely to allow more time for peace talks.

And the firm "Haitong Futures" viewed in a report that the ceasefire appears increasingly like a preliminary stage for more fighting, pointing out that in the event of the failure of talks by the end of April and the resumption of fighting, oil prices might rise to new record levels this year.

And Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at "Wealth Club," said: "It is expected that we will witness new financial pressures, with the continued disruption of major shipments from the region," adding that this will keep the costs of many goods high.

And in light of the search by investors and governments around the world for a permanent solution, Trump emphasized that he will not set a "timeframe" for ending the conflict, saying that he seeks a "grand bargain."

And he added: "Don't rush me," in response to a question regarding the duration he is prepared to wait to reach a long-term agreement.

The U.S. dollar headed toward achieving its first weekly gains in three weeks on Friday, amid relatively quiet trading, in light of declining hopes regarding a swift calming of tensions in the Middle East as a result of the stalling of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

And at a time when Lebanon and Israel extended the ceasefire agreement between them for a period of three weeks before its expiration on Sunday, Iran showcased its control over the Strait of Hormuz by publishing footage of its forces storming a massive cargo ship, which kept the timing of the reopening of the most important shipping lane in the world unclear and supported the rise in oil prices.

And the dollar index, which measures the performance of the American currency against a basket of major currencies such as the yen and the euro, decreased by 0.1% to 98.75, but it remained on its way to achieving a weekly gain of about 0.5%. And the euro rose by 0.1% to 1.169 dollars.

The British pound also rose by 0.1%, even though strong British retail sales data for the month of March did not create much of an impact in the markets.

And Tommy von Bromsen said that "the main feature of the past week is the absence of any real progress in the peace talks, which is what makes things difficult for the markets in light of the absence of a clear timeframe."

And Brent crude futures rose by 1.5% to 106.60 dollars per barrel.

And the dollar benefited from the demand for it as a safe haven in light of the state of uncertainty. For it rose in March with the escalation of concerns regarding the conflict, before retreating partially this month with the growing optimism regarding the possibility of reaching a solution.

And Sho Suzuki said that "oil and the dollar still move in close proximity, and with the rise of crude prices again, it seems that the dollar will remain relatively strong."

In contrast, the Japanese yen stabilized after four days of losses, to rise by 0.1% to 159.7 against the dollar.

Anticipation of central bank decisions

Investors are heading now toward a week crowded with central bank decisions, as it is expected that each of the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve will announce their decisions regarding monetary policy.

And von Bromsen explained that "the basic message from the central banks so far is adopting a wait-and-see approach," pointing out that the focus will be on future guidance, in light of the policymakers' assessment of the effects of the rise in energy prices and the secondary repercussions of inflation.

And it is expected that the European Central Bank will keep the interest rate on deposits unchanged on April 30, before raising it in June, according to a poll conducted by Reuters, in an attempt to limit the impact of the energy shock resulting from the war on the economy of the Eurozone.

And in Japan, core inflation slowed to below the target of 2% for the second consecutive month in March, but it is expected to return to rising in the coming months with companies passing on the rise in fuel costs resulting from the Middle East conflict.

And it is likely that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged in its meeting next week, while pointing to its readiness to raise them in the future to confront inflationary pressures.

And the Japanese Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, confirmed the readiness of the authorities to take "decisive measures" against speculative movements in the currency market.

And the Australian dollar rose by 0.1% to 0.7135 U.S. dollars, and the New Zealand dollar rose by a similar percentage to 0.5859 dollars.

And in the digital currency market, the price of Bitcoin stabilized at approximately 77,895.85 dollars.

Gold prices declined in the European market on Friday, deepening losses for the second consecutive day and hitting their lowest level in nearly two weeks. The metal is on track for a weekly loss, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar and high oil prices as tensions escalate between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the extension of the ceasefire agreement.

Although gasoline prices in the U.S. are climbing and inflationary pressures are mounting on Federal Reserve policymakers, the probability of a U.S. interest rate hike this April remains very low.

Price Overview

- Gold Prices Today: Gold prices fell by 0.75% to ($4,659.09), the lowest since April 13, from an opening level of ($4,693.02), while recording a high of ($4,711.21).

- At the close of trading on Thursday, gold prices lost 1.0%, marking their third loss in the last four days due to the escalating political conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

Weekly Trading

Throughout this week's trading, which officially concludes with price settlements today, gold prices have fallen by approximately 3.75% so far. This puts the metal on the verge of incurring its first weekly loss in five weeks.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose by more than 0.1% on Friday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session. A stronger American currency typically makes dollar-denominated gold less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

This ascent comes as investors focus on the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, with the U.S. and Iran remaining at odds over the ceasefire, the blockade, nuclear issues, and control of the Strait. These disputes keep the strategic waterway effectively closed, threatening an energy sector shock that could damage global economies.

Analysis and Insights

Skye Masters, head of markets research at National Australia Bank, stated: "Despite Trump's extension of the ceasefire, tensions remain high with Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the continued U.S. naval blockade, increasing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions."

Masters added that extreme economic and trade risks are undervalued, and inflationary pressures are expected to persist until the end of the year.

Iranian War Updates

- Trump: Tehran wants to make a deal, but its leadership is in turmoil.

- Trump: We are in no rush for a deal, but if Iran does not want one, "I will end it militarily."

- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the U.S. blockade and threats as "main obstacles" to genuine negotiations.

- Pakistan continues its efforts to revive "peace talks" between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad.

- Iran seized a new vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging U.S. naval superiority.

Global Oil Prices

Global oil prices rose by an average of 0.75% on Friday, maintaining gains for the fifth consecutive day and trading near two-week highs. This follows mounting fears of energy supply disruptions from the Arabian Gulf as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to oil tankers. The rise in global oil prices renews concerns over accelerating inflation, which could push central banks to raise interest rates in the near term.

U.S. Interest Rates

- Kevin Warsh, the nominee for a senior Federal Reserve role, stated on Tuesday that he has made no promises to Trump regarding interest rate cuts.

- According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool: the probability of keeping U.S. interest rates unchanged at the April meeting is currently stable at 99%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 1%.

Expectations for Gold Performance

Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA, said: "As long as the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains, oil will continue to trade at high levels, putting pressure on gold prices."

Wong added: "Gold remains trapped in a sideways range between the 50-day moving average at approximately $4,900 and a low at the 20-day moving average of $4,645. Breaking out of this range depends on developments in the Middle East."

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, decreased by approximately 1.72 metric tons on Thursday. This marks the second consecutive daily decline, bringing the total to 1,049.19 metric tons—the lowest level since April 13.

The Euro declined in the European market on Friday against a basket of global currencies, continuing its losses for the fourth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar. It is approaching its lowest level in nearly two weeks and is on track for its first weekly loss in a month as investors prioritize the American currency as the preferred alternative investment. This shift follows escalating tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, where both sides have exchanged control over vessels and tankers.

The current rise in global oil prices is increasing signs of growing inflationary pressures on European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, reinforcing the probability of European interest rate hikes this year.

Price Overview

- Euro Exchange Rate Today: The Euro fell against the dollar by 0.1% to ($1.1672), from today’s opening price of ($1.1683), and recorded a high of ($1.1689).

- The Euro ended Thursday's trading down 0.2% against the dollar, marking its third consecutive daily loss. It touched a nearly two-week low of $1.1670 due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Weekly Trading

Throughout this week's trading, which officially concludes with price settlements today, the Euro has fallen by approximately 0.8% against the U.S. dollar so far, positioned to incur its first weekly loss in a month.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose by more than 0.1% on Friday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session and reflecting the continued ascent of the American currency.

This rise comes as investors focus on buying the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, as the United States and Iran remain at odds over the ceasefire, the blockade, nuclear issues, and control of the Strait. These disputes keep the strategic waterway effectively closed, threatening an energy sector shock that could harm global economies.

Skye Masters, head of markets research at National Australia Bank, noted: "Despite Trump's extension of the ceasefire, tensions remain high with Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the continued U.S. naval blockade, increasing the risk of prolonged supply disruptions."

Masters added that extreme economic and trade risks are undervalued, and inflationary pressures will persist until the end of the year.

Iranian War Updates

- Trump: Tehran wants to make a deal, but its leadership is in turmoil.

- Trump: We are in no rush for a deal, but if Iran does not want one, "I will end it militarily."

- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described the U.S. blockade and threats as "main obstacles" to genuine negotiations.

- Pakistan continues its efforts to revive peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad.

- Iran seized a new vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging U.S. naval superiority.

Global Oil Prices

Global oil prices rose by more than 0.5% on Friday, maintaining gains for the fifth consecutive day and trading near two-week highs. This follows mounting fears of energy supply disruptions from the Arabian Gulf as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. The rise in global oil prices renews concerns over accelerating inflation, which may push central banks to raise interest rates in the near term—a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of long-term rate holds or cuts.

European Interest Rates

- With the rise in global oil prices, money market pricing for the probability of the ECB raising European interest rates by 25 basis points in April increased from 20% to 30%.

- ECB President Christine Lagarde stated: The bank is prepared to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term.

- Sources told Reuters that the ECB is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes during its meeting this month.