Oil prices surged about 7% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said the United States will continue attacks on Iran, raising fears of prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.

Brent crude futures rose $8.34, or 8.2%, to $109.50 per barrel as of 11:39 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also climbed $9.23, or 9.2%, to $109.35 per barrel, hitting their highest level since March 9.

Both benchmarks are on track for their largest daily gains in three weeks in both absolute and percentage terms, although they remain below levels above $119 per barrel reached earlier in the conflict.

Trump said: “We will hit them very hard over the next two to three weeks. We will send them back to the Stone Age where they belong.” He did not provide details on steps that could lead to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, said markets are reacting to the absence of any “clear signal of a ceasefire or diplomatic engagement” in Trump’s speech. She added that “if tensions escalate or maritime risks increase, oil prices could test new record levels as markets price in potential supply disruptions.”

UK hosts talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is hosting a virtual meeting involving 35 countries to discuss options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although the United States is not expected to participate.

In another development, Qatar’s Ministry of Defense said that an oil tanker chartered by state-owned QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters on Wednesday.

Some market participants said they have stopped dealing in cargoes priced against the Dubai benchmark for Middle Eastern crude, which is typically used to price about one-fifth of global oil supplies, due to the inability to use ports located within the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, is likely to discuss increasing oil production again on Sunday, according to sources. Such a move could allow member states to pump more oil if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, but it would not materially boost supply before that.

In Russia, Ukrainian strikes on port infrastructure, pipelines, and refineries have reduced export capacity by about one million barrels per day, or roughly one-fifth of total capacity, according to sources, potentially paving the way for imminent production cuts.

The head of the International Energy Agency also warned that supply disruptions will begin to impact Europe’s economy in April, after the region had previously been shielded by shipments contracted before the outbreak of the war.

The US dollar rose sharply on Thursday after US President Donald Trump’s speech on Iran dashed hopes for a quick end to the conflict, driving investors toward safe-haven assets as oil prices surged and equities declined.

In a widely anticipated address, Trump pledged to carry out stronger strikes against Iran over the next two to three weeks, without providing a clear timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the war, which has shaken investor confidence and triggered volatility in global markets.

Investors quickly moved out of riskier assets such as equities and into the US dollar, pushing the yen, euro, and British pound lower.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.53% to 100.09 as demand for safe-haven assets returned.

Thursday’s gains erased most of the dollar’s losses over the previous two sessions, which had been driven by earlier optimism about possible de-escalation in the Iran war, putting the US currency on track for another weekly gain.

At the same time, equities declined while oil prices surged, with Brent crude futures rising more than 6% to $108 per barrel following Trump’s speech, which reignited concerns over ongoing supply disruptions.

Carol Kong, currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Trump’s remarks failed to reassure markets, noting that markets are beginning to realize the war is likely to escalate further before easing.

She added that the US dollar “could rise further from here against all major currencies” as markets recognize that the global economy is set to slow significantly.

The euro fell 0.51% to $1.1531, while the British pound declined 0.68% to $1.3216, both giving up part of their recent gains.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for global growth expectations, also fell 0.69% to $0.6881.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen declined 0.5% to ¥159.64 per dollar, approaching the key psychological level of 160, which is seen as a threshold that could prompt intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market.

Trump’s remarks also pushed US Treasury yields higher, as rising oil prices fueled concerns about higher inflation, potentially limiting the scope for interest rate cuts.

This comes ahead of the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with markets expecting an increase of 60,000 jobs in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said that any disappointing reading could unsettle markets and amplify warnings about stagflation.

He added that markets may experience further volatility ahead of the long Easter weekend.

Gold prices fell more than 4% in European trading on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week high reached earlier in Asian trading, and heading toward their first loss in the past five days, as profit-taking accelerated and amid pressure from the broad strength of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

This sharp decline in the precious metal comes after US President Donald Trump’s remarks on developments in the Iran war, in which he confirmed that the United States will continue military operations against Iran in the coming weeks.

With global oil prices rising again, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year have strengthened. To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further key data on the US labor market.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 4.3% to $4,554.28, down from the session opening level of $4,758.10, after hitting a high of $4,800.38, the highest level since March 19.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold rose 1.9%, marking its fourth consecutive daily gain, supported by a weaker US dollar following reports that Trump is seeking to exit the war with Iran.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.65% on Thursday, resuming gains that had paused over the past two sessions, reflecting broad strength in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation regarding developments in the Iran war.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Trump’s remarks did not reassure markets, noting that markets are beginning to realize that the war is likely to escalate before it de-escalates.

Kong added that the US dollar is expected to rise further against all major currencies, especially as markets recognize that the global economy will experience a noticeable slowdown.

Trump’s speech

Trump focused on several key points regarding the trajectory of the Iran war, most notably:

• The military operation against Iran will continue until all objectives are achieved.

• Major military operations will continue for only two to three more weeks.

• Iranian energy infrastructure will be targeted if no agreement is reached.

• The United States does not need Middle East oil, and US oil production will rise significantly soon.

• The United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait will reopen automatically once the conflict ends.

• Countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should act to protect this vital shipping route.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices surged by an average of 9% on Thursday, with US crude reaching its highest level in four weeks, amid renewed concerns over continued supply disruptions from the Gulf region due to the closure of Hormuz, especially after the United States stepped back from efforts to reopen this key global energy shipping route.

US interest rates

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said there is no need to change the Fed’s interest rate policy at the moment amid rising inflation risks.

Following the rise in oil prices, according to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets reduced pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the April meeting from 99% to 95%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike increased from 1% to 5%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring a series of very important US labor market data releases.

Weekly US jobless claims are due later today, while the March jobs report will be released on Friday.

Gold outlook

Independent metals trader Tai Wong said gold is declining after two strong days, noting that Trump’s speech was aggressive and pointed to offensive plans in the coming weeks, suggesting that the optimism seen in recent days had been excessive and that some pullback is likely ahead of the long weekend.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 3.72 metric tons on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive daily rise and bringing the total to 1,050.99 metric tons.

The euro fell in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, pulling back from a one-week high against the US dollar and heading toward its first loss in the past three days, as investors turned away from risk and focused on buying the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset following US President Donald Trump’s speech on developments in the Iran war.

With eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank’s medium-term target due to rising energy prices, expectations for at least one interest rate hike this year have increased, as markets await further key economic data from Europe.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell about 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1532, down from the session opening level of $1.1588, after hitting a high of $1.1605.

The euro ended Wednesday’s session up 0.3% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily gain and recording a one-week high of $1.1627, amid growing optimism that the Iran war may be nearing an end.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.5% on Thursday, resuming gains that had paused over the past two sessions, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation regarding developments in the Iran war.

Trump’s speech

Trump focused on several key points regarding the trajectory of the Iran war, most notably:

• The objectives of the war with Iran are nearly complete, and Tehran no longer poses a real threat.

• Energy and oil infrastructure could be targeted if negotiations are not satisfactory.

• Major military operations will continue for only two to three more weeks.

• The United States does not need Middle East oil, and US oil production will rise significantly soon.

• The United States has abundant gas supplies.

• The United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait will reopen automatically once the conflict ends.

• Countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should act to protect their interests.

Opinions and analysis

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Trump’s remarks did not reassure markets, noting that markets are beginning to realize that the war is likely to escalate before it de-escalates.

Kong added that the US dollar is expected to rise further against all major currencies, especially as markets recognize that the global economy will experience a noticeable slowdown.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Data released on Tuesday showed that eurozone inflation exceeded the European Central Bank’s target, reaching 2.5% in March as energy prices rose.

Following the data, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 30% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes at this month’s meeting.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further economic data from the eurozone on inflation, unemployment, and wage levels.