Aluminum prices posted modest gains as concerns over shipping security in the Middle East resurfaced, while inventories registered in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses continued to decline.

Benchmark three-month aluminum contracts on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $3,129 per metric ton after reports that a vessel came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving concerns about the security of one of the world's most important trade routes.

These concerns carry particular weight because a significant share of regional raw material and metal flows depends on the uninterrupted and safe movement of shipping traffic, prompting markets to add a risk premium to prices whenever supply disruptions become more likely.

At the same time, available inventories continued to tighten, with LME aluminum stocks falling to 292,425 tons, reinforcing concerns about limited supply availability.

In the longer-dated market, the bid price for December 2027 aluminum contracts climbed to $3,048 per ton on July 6, up from $3,022 on July 3, an increase of 0.86%.

The offer price for the same contracts also rose 0.86% to $3,053 per ton, compared with $3,027 three days earlier.

Meanwhile, cancelled warrants, which represent material scheduled for withdrawal from exchange warehouses, declined 6.18% to 48,950 tons on July 6 from 52,175 tons on July 3.

In the alumina market, the Platts alumina assessment remained unchanged at $330 per ton.

Bitcoin fell back below the $64,000 level on Tuesday, giving up part of the gains recorded during a six-session winning streak.

Despite the pullback, signs of improving institutional demand have started to emerge, with spot Bitcoin ETFs posting a second consecutive day of net inflows through Monday after weeks of persistent outflows.

Recent developments also showed that the impact of Strategy’s decision to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings was limited and short-lived, highlighting the deep liquidity of the world’s largest cryptocurrency and its ability to absorb large transactions.

Hormuz tensions weigh on risk appetite

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated after Iran announced plans to impose new fees on vessels passing through the strategic waterway.

Despite US opposition, Tehran insists the charges are intended to cover security, traffic management and environmental protection costs rather than serving as transit fees.

Concerns intensified after an oil tanker was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile while crossing the strait, adding pressure to the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran and weakening investor appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $63,000 during Tuesday’s session.

Institutional demand begins to recover

Data suggest that institutional demand may be starting to recover after an extended period of weakness.

According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $265.69 million on Monday, marking a second straight session of positive flows.

QCP Capital said in a report released Monday that the short-term outlook has become more constructive, particularly if spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting fresh capital following the inflows recorded on Friday, which marked a positive shift after more than a week of continuous outflows.

The firm added: “A decisive recovery above $64,000 this week would improve market sentiment and help ease recent concerns surrounding Strategy. For now, buyers appear to have gained some breathing room, but the broader battle is far from over.”

Strategy sale creates only a temporary shock

Strategy announced on Monday that it sold 3,588 Bitcoin for approximately $216 million to help fund distributions linked to its Digital Credit securities.

The announcement initially pushed Bitcoin down by roughly 4%, but the cryptocurrency gradually recovered its losses and finished Monday’s session with modest gains, suggesting the market was able to absorb the selling pressure relatively quickly.

Crypto Finance said in a report on Tuesday that transactions of this size are typically executed through over-the-counter channels and are often hedged well before they are publicly disclosed.

As a result, much of the market impact is usually reflected in prices before the official announcement, helping explain the limited reaction.

The report also noted that Bitcoin’s deep liquidity allows it to absorb large sales without causing major market disruptions.

Could Bitcoin sales become a recurring strategy?

Analysts believe the more important question is no longer the latest transaction itself, but whether the sale represents a one-off event or the beginning of a recurring pattern.

As Strategy continues issuing preferred shares and yield-generating investment instruments backed by its Bitcoin holdings, the company may increasingly need to generate cash to cover dividend payments and other financial obligations.

Crypto Finance noted that periodic Bitcoin sales could gradually become a structural component of the company’s funding model rather than an exception.

However, the firm stressed that the sale does not signal any weakening of Strategy’s long-term conviction in Bitcoin.

Dividend obligations linked to these financial instruments remain relatively small compared with the company’s overall Bitcoin holdings, meaning that liquidating a limited portion of its position is sufficient to meet funding needs. The market’s ability to absorb the recent sale is therefore viewed as a positive sign.

Market proves more resilient than expected

In a recent interview, Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis said the key takeaway is not Michael Saylor himself or the scale of any future Strategy sales, but rather how the market reacted once the selling began.

He noted that Bitcoin has already endured a sharp decline this year and has spent several months in a bear market, falling roughly 50% from its previous peak.

Kennis added that concerns about Strategy becoming a permanent seller may have contributed to recent price weakness, but the actual impact of the announced sale was far smaller than many investors had expected.

He concluded that Bitcoin’s ability to continue trading near the $60,000 level despite significant selling pressure could support a less bearish outlook for the market in the near term.

Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday after reports of attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about potential disruptions to shipping through one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.

Brent crude futures climbed 89 cents, or 1.24%, to $72.88 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 71 cents, or 1.04%, to $69.26 a barrel by 09:39 GMT.

“The main driver for the market this morning is the reported attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

He added that the incident had restored part of the geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. While the premium remains modest compared to previous periods of heightened tensions, it is currently the key factor supporting the market.

Hansen noted that any further escalation could push prices toward $75 a barrel, with $80 becoming the next major target if tensions continue to intensify.

Maritime security sources said on Tuesday that a Saudi-flagged oil tanker sustained damage near the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, following an earlier attack on a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier in the same area.

Four sources familiar with the matter said the Qatari vessel suffered significant damage while transiting the Omani side of the strait, following reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched missiles at ships passing through the waterway overnight.

On the diplomatic front, Iran’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that talks aimed at reaching a final agreement with Washington would not resume if US threats continued, after President Donald Trump warned that he would “finish the job” if no agreement is reached.

Investors continue to closely monitor negotiations between the United States and Iran and their potential impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the Iran conflict handled roughly 20% of global daily oil and LNG supplies.

Meanwhile, shipping data showed that Japan is set to receive additional crude oil cargoes from the Middle East this month after two Japanese-owned supertankers carrying Saudi crude successfully departed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday after being stranded there.

Looking further ahead, Société Générale expects the oil market to shift from deficit to surplus in late 2026 and throughout 2027 as supply growth outpaces demand growth.

The bank lowered its forecast for oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $75 a barrel from a previous estimate of $83, while reducing its 2027 average forecast to $73 a barrel from $79. It said global inventories are expected to gradually recover despite continued market volatility.

Separately, five sources familiar with the matter revealed that Saudi Arabia is studying an expansion of the capacity of its crude oil pipeline network leading to the Red Sea coast, a move that would allow the kingdom and potentially neighboring producers to export larger volumes of oil without relying on the Strait of Hormuz.

The British pound climbed to its highest level in three weeks against the US dollar on Tuesday, extending gains as the greenback remained under pressure following weaker-than-expected US jobs data released last week. Sterling also reached its strongest level against the euro in a year.

The pound rose to $1.3401, its highest level since June 17, before easing slightly to trade around $1.338.

The US dollar had previously reached a 13-month high against a basket of major currencies in late June, as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates later this year.

However, a framework agreement between the United States and Iran triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, while US nonfarm payrolls data released on Thursday showed the economy added fewer jobs than expected in June. The combination prompted markets to scale back expectations for further rate hikes and weighed on the dollar.

At the same time, sterling continued to trade near a 13-month high against the euro, with the single currency slipping to 85.41 pence.

The move followed data released last week showing eurozone inflation came in below expectations in June, leading investors to reduce bets on additional interest rate increases from the European Central Bank.

Analysts said sterling also benefited from the decline in oil prices, which had surged earlier in the year because of the Iran conflict. Higher energy costs had been seen as a threat to the UK economy, given the country's status as a major energy importer and its relatively limited gas storage capacity.

Support for the pound was further strengthened after Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to become the next prime minister, pledged to adhere to the government's fiscal rules, easing concerns that a future administration could significantly increase public spending.

April LaRusse, head of investment specialists at Insight Investments, said the pound’s resilience despite recent political turbulence reflects a simple reality: most of the negative news had already been priced into markets.

She added: “Investors have spent years positioning for weak UK economic performance. As a result, with outcomes proving less negative than expected and underlying fundamentals gradually stabilizing, the British currency has started to find increasing support.”