Bitcoin Recovers Above $101,000 After Weekend Losses

Bitcoin rebounded late Sunday, trading above $101,000 after losses over the weekend as investors reacted to joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.

Market Resilience Reflects Expectations of a Limited Conflict

Bitcoin’s rise coincided with minor movements in gold prices and muted reactions in oil and stock futures markets, indicating traders are expecting a limited conflict rather than a prolonged geopolitical shock.

The U.S. operation, coordinated with Israel, targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using over 125 aircraft and bunker-busting munitions.

Iran Responds with Missiles and Drones; Emergency Talks in Moscow

Iran responded by launching missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and threatened to strike U.S. bases in the Gulf. Iran’s Foreign Minister traveled to Moscow on Sunday for emergency talks, while U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a pause on further American military actions.

A final decision on next steps may come within two weeks, with European nations urging restraint and a return to diplomacy.

Gold and Oil React Calmly

Despite the escalation, markets stabilized quickly. Gold briefly rose to $3,398/oz before slipping back to $3,374. Oil pared early gains, ending up just 0.5% for the session.

The "Kobeissi Letter" wrote on X: “Markets still anticipate a short-lived war,” noting oil prices remain well below historical levels associated with Hormuz Strait disruptions.

Crypto Markets Steady Amid Volatility

Cryptocurrencies mirrored cautious sentiment. While Bitcoin saw selling at the height of weekend tensions, traders returned as risk appetite recovered.

Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, told Decrypt: “We saw nervous trading in the hours after the U.S. strike. Trading volumes remain high.”

He added: “If tensions ease in the Middle East, we expect renewed investor confidence, pushing prices upward.”

Uncertainty Prevails, Crypto Volatility Remains

“No one — not even Trump — knows what’s next,” Hundal said. “This uncertainty creates discomfort for traders.”

He emphasized, “Bitcoin is still an emerging asset. It’s not surprising to see markets de-risk after major events. This volatility is part of the crypto market’s nature.”

Bitcoin Dips to $98,200 After U.S. Strikes

Bitcoin fell to $98,200 on Sunday as the Middle East conflict escalated. President Trump announced strikes on three nuclear sites Saturday night, sparking global risk-off sentiment that pushed Bitcoin below the $100,000 psychological threshold.

Massive Derivatives Liquidations

According to CoinGlass, nearly 187,016 traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with total liquidations exceeding $656.12 million.

The largest single liquidation was a $35.45 million BTC/USDT position on HTX.

Potential Iranian Retaliation Adds Risk Pressure

Speculation about an Iranian response is adding to Bitcoin volatility, increasing the chance of wider Middle East conflict and driving risk-asset pressure.

Japanese Firm Buys the Dip

Despite turmoil, institutional interest remained strong. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced Monday it purchased 1,111 more BTC, bringing its total holdings to 11,111 BTC.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Temporary Rebound Before More Downside?

The daily BTC/USDT chart shows price closing Saturday below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $102,942 and dipping to a low of $98,200 the next day.

As of Monday morning, price had recovered slightly, hovering around $101,800.

Two key scenarios emerge:

Scenario 1: Rebound Toward Resistance Zone

Price may gradually rise toward the 50-EMA at $102,968 and the Point of Control (POC) at $103,800, which saw the highest volume since April. This $102,968–$103,800 range is a major resistance zone.

Scenario 2: CME Gap Fill

Bitcoin futures on CME show a price gap between $101,705 and $103,365, likely to be "filled" before continuing its broader trend. This aligns with the aforementioned resistance levels and suggests a potential short-term bounce before resuming the downward trajectory.

Oil prices rose on Monday during a highly volatile trading session following U.S. alignment with Israel in striking Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. Investors are evaluating potential risks to global oil supply as conflict escalates.

Brent crude futures climbed 78 cents or 1.01% to $77.79 a barrel by 10:00 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 76 cents or 1.03% to $74.60 a barrel.

Major Escalation: Trump Claims Destruction of Nuclear Facilities

President Donald Trump stated he had "destroyed" Iran’s key nuclear facilities in the weekend strikes — a major escalation in the Middle East conflict. Iran vowed to defend itself.

Israel launched fresh strikes on Monday targeting Tehran and the Fordow nuclear facility, which was also hit by the U.S.

Iran Warns, China Blames U.S. for Undermining Credibility

Iran, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, said the U.S. strikes expanded the range of "legitimate targets" for its armed forces. It called Trump a "gambler" for joining Israel’s military campaign.

Meanwhile, China criticized the U.S. action as severely damaging Washington’s credibility, warning that the situation could spiral "out of control."

Volatility Surges as Oil Hits Five-Month Highs, Then Retreats

Monday's session was highly volatile: Brent and WTI reached five-month highs of $81.40 and $78.40 respectively before retreating and turning negative in early European trading, only to rise again by about 1%.

Since the conflict erupted on June 13, prices have climbed on fears that Iran could retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply passes.

Risk Premium Persists Despite No Supply Disruptions Yet

Despite no immediate supply disruptions, markets are still pricing in a geopolitical risk premium.

Giovanni Staunovo of UBS said, "The geopolitical risk premium has started to fade given the absence of supply disruption. But as long as the conflict’s outcome remains uncertain, market participants will continue to price in the risks. Prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term."

All Eyes on Strait of Hormuz — Even Threats Can Move Prices

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank stated, "All eyes remain on the Strait of Hormuz and whether Iran will attempt to disrupt tanker traffic." He added, "Prices could spike even without actual disruption if threats are sufficient to delay shipments."

Goldman Sachs projected in a Sunday report that Brent could temporarily hit $110 per barrel if half of the Strait’s traffic were disrupted for one month, with supply remaining 10% lower for the following 11 months.

However, Goldman’s base case assumes no major disruption due to global efforts to avoid a severe supply crisis.

Iran Could Pay an Economic Price for Closing the Strait

Sughanda Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet noted that the Strait is vital for Iran’s oil exports—a key revenue source. A prolonged closure could cause significant economic harm to Iran, making it a “double-edged sword.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait, stating, "China relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for oil imports."

China is Iran’s top oil customer and maintains friendly relations with Tehran.

Iran Hints at Military Option, Decision Rests with National Security Council

Iran’s Foreign Minister said Sunday that the country “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty,” after the U.S. bombed three nuclear sites.

Iranian state media reported that Parliament endorsed a proposal to close the Strait, though the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council.

Global Economic Fallout Could Be Severe

Closing the narrow Strait between Iran and Oman could trigger catastrophic consequences for the global economy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, around 20 million barrels per day passed through the Strait in 2024—about 20% of global consumption.

Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy both project oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the Strait is closed for a long duration. However, J.P. Morgan believes the likelihood is low, viewing such an action as an act of war from the U.S. perspective.

Rubio called the idea of closing the Strait “economic suicide” for Iran, given its dependence on that route for oil exports.

Iran’s Oil Exports at Risk — China Would Be Hardest Hit

Iran is the third-largest OPEC producer, pumping 3.3 million bpd. It exported 1.84 million bpd last month, mostly to China, according to Kpler data.

Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, told CNBC, “It would be self-inflicted damage — closing the Strait would halt oil exports to China, cutting off a major income stream.”

U.S. Fifth Fleet on Alert, Response Likely to Be Broad

Secretary Rubio confirmed the U.S. retains multiple options to respond to any Iranian move to close the Strait.

"The impact will hurt other economies more than ours. It would be a massive escalation that demands a response — not just from us, but from other powers too," he said.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial navigation in the Gulf. Many oil traders believe the Navy could quickly counter any Iranian attempt to block the Strait.

However, Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy and a former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, warned the market may be underestimating the risk.

“We believe Iran could disrupt shipping in the Strait far longer than markets expect — weeks or even months, not just hours or days,” McNally said.

The U.S. dollar rose on Monday as worried investors sought safe-haven assets, although limited moves suggest markets are still awaiting Iran's response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites, which have heightened Middle East tensions.

Tehran: U.S. strikes expand list of legitimate targets

Iran said Monday that the American strikes on its nuclear sites had expanded the list of legitimate military targets. It also described President Donald Trump as a "gambler" for joining Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

Big Moves in Oil Markets

Oil markets saw the most significant movement, with crude prices hitting five-month highs before retreating later in the day. The dollar rose 1% against the Japanese yen to 147.450, its highest since May 15.

Oil Prices and the Dollar-Yen Relationship

Bank of America analysts noted that the USD/JPY pair may reprice upward if oil prices remain high. They pointed out that Japan imports nearly all of its oil—over 90% of it from the Middle East—while the U.S. is relatively energy self-sufficient.

Euro, Pound, and Other Currencies

The euro performed slightly better, dropping just 0.2% to $1.14965, and remained flat after preliminary eurozone PMI data showed the region's economy stalled for a second consecutive month in June.

Positive UK data had little effect on the British pound, which stood at $1.34385, down 0.1%. Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar hit a one-month low, falling 0.52% to $0.64180. The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.68% to $0.5926.

U.S. Dollar Index Rises Amid Market Uncertainty

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 99.065.

Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the market is in "wait-and-see" mode regarding Iran's response. She noted that the greater concern is the inflationary impact of the conflict rather than its economic toll.

"Currency markets are hostage to the statements and actions of Iran, Israel, and the U.S. The risks clearly lean toward safe-haven currencies if the conflict escalates," she said.

Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz

Iran vowed to defend itself after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs on the mountain above its Fordow nuclear facility. U.S. leaders urged Tehran to stand down as anti-war protests erupted in some U.S. cities.

In a powerful threat to the West, Iran's parliament approved a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of global oil shipments pass. The strait lies between Iran, Oman, and the UAE.

Dollar Regains Safe-Haven Role Despite Yearly Decline

While the dollar has regained its role as a safe haven amid geopolitical risk, the relatively limited movement suggests cautious investor behavior.

The dollar has declined 8.6% this year against major currencies due to economic uncertainty sparked by Trump’s trade policies and concerns over U.S. growth, pushing investors toward alternatives.

Markets Await Powell’s Testimony

Attention is also turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual testimony to Congress.

George Vessey, chief currency strategist at Convera, said, "Amid sharp political division, Powell is expected to stress the Fed’s independence and reiterate that any rate decisions will be entirely data-dependent."

Bond Market Tells a Different Safe-Haven Story

Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, the U.S. bond market—a key safe-haven indicator—has shown an unusually muted response.

Typically, global crises push investors toward U.S. sovereign debt, but Danske Bank’s Kundby Nielsen believes the bond reaction is unclear due to trade deficits, tariffs, and the likelihood of increased bond supply from expansionary fiscal policy.

Global Trade War Adds to Financial Risk

Financial risk is also rising amid the global trade war. With the July 9 deadline marking the end of the temporary tariff exemption, the U.S. is threatening to impose tariffs of up to 50% on most imports from the European Union.

Without the War, the Dollar Would Have Continued Falling

Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry, strategists at Macquarie Bank, wrote in a June 20 client note—prior to the U.S. strikes on Iran—that the dollar would likely have declined further without the conflict.

They cited unfavorable U.S. tariff news and relatively resilient data outside the U.S. as reasons for anticipated weakness.

Heavy Bets Against the Dollar

Bank of America strategists also noted that investors are heavily positioned for a weaker dollar, adding momentum to any downside moves.

According to the bank’s June 16 survey of global fund managers, short dollar positions were the third most crowded trade—though the poll was conducted before the U.S. intervention in the Middle East conflict.