Bitcoin plunged to around 97,000 dollars today after falling sharply below the key 100,000-dollar level in a broad wave of risk aversion. The price hit an intraday low near 96,841 dollars, the weakest since May. The cryptocurrency has lost more than 23% compared with the record high it reached last month above 126,000 dollars. The decline came as traders reduced their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, while delays in key U.S. economic data added to uncertainty, prompting investors to exit high-risk assets.

Although Bitcoin remains up about 5% since the start of the year, it is still far from the election-driven rally that lifted it more than 40% since late 2024. Selling pressure remains heavy for the third consecutive week. Institutional inflows have weakened again. Long-term wallets sold more than 815,000 bitcoins over the past month. Options-market moves pointed to rising market concerns.

Demand has surged for bearish hedging instruments around the 95,000- and 90,000-dollar levels. Traders are watching the 98,000-dollar mark closely as it may act as a trigger for a sharper decline. Technical signals have also weakened, with the 200-day exponential moving average stabilizing near 108,000 dollars, while the 50-day EMA is approaching a potential bearish crossover. Altcoins dropped sharply, with Ethereum falling more than 9%, Solana more than 8%, XRP about 7%, and Dogecoin nearly 7%. Pressure also increased from broader markets.

U.S. equities posted their worst decline in more than a month; the Dow Jones fell 1.65%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.66%, and the Nasdaq slipped 2.29%. Traders reassessed monetary-policy risks as inflation fears resurfaced. Crypto markets lost momentum. Attempts to rebound above 101,000 dollars failed again as buyers were unable to hold gains.

Some accumulation activity has returned, as large wallets added more than 45,000 bitcoins this week. Even so, a temporary rebound remains possible if U.S. activity normalizes and the delayed economic data is released. But bearish-leaning analysts warned that a clear break below 98,000 dollars could open the way toward the 80,000-dollar level.

Bitcoin price today drops below 100,000 dollars as rate-cut expectations fade

Bitcoin fell sharply on Friday as high-risk markets weakened. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped to a six-month low, breaking below the key 100,000-dollar threshold. The decline came as market expectations for a Fed rate cut in the December meeting weakened, adding pressure on crypto assets, with many major tokens recording notable losses.

Bitcoin traded near 97,067 dollars, down 2.63%. The price touched an intraday low of 96,841 dollars, the weakest since May 2025. The cryptocurrency has now lost more than 23% compared with its all-time high above 126,000 dollars a month ago. Despite the decline, Bitcoin remains up about 5% since the start of the year and more than 40% since the U.S. 2024 elections.

The drop came amid a sharp decline in global risk appetite, as investors reassessed the Fed’s ability to justify monetary easing given delays in major U.S. economic reports. The uncertainty pushed traders into defensive positions and led to outflows from crypto products.

Bitcoin price outlook: Can it recover before the Fed’s December meeting?

The price setup for Bitcoin ahead of the Fed’s December meeting appears cautious with a bearish tilt, amid key technical levels closely watched by the market. The price is currently holding below the psychologically important 100,000-dollar level, which represents a major support zone. Traders say a break below 98,000 dollars could open the door to a deeper correction toward 80,000 dollars, based on historical volume areas.

Momentum indicators have turned negative, with the 50-day EMA approaching the 200-day EMA from above. A “death cross”—where the 50-day average falls below the 200-day—would signal accelerating bearish momentum and typically points to extended downtrends. The 200-day average sits around 108,000 dollars, a major resistance level that Bitcoin has failed to overcome this year.

Despite the short-term bearish pressure, some analysts expect a potential recovery and near-term upside. Certain estimates suggest Bitcoin could rise above 115,000 dollars by mid-November and later exceed 130,000 dollars if support levels hold and positive catalysts emerge, such as easing signals from the Fed or a return of liquidity to markets. Immediate support is concentrated around the 104,000–106,000-dollar range, a level that previously formed a strong floor. If the price stabilizes there, it may consolidate before attempting a breakout as December approaches.

Market sentiment may improve as U.S. government operations return to normal and delayed economic data begins to flow. Some traders expect liquidity to strengthen if the Fed confirms easing plans later in the year. Accumulation data also shows renewed buying interest from large investors who purchased about 45,000 bitcoins over the past week.

For now, rallies continue to lose momentum quickly. Conditions remain fragile, and recovery depends heavily on economic signals in the coming weeks. Until rate-cut expectations stabilize again, Bitcoin is likely to continue trading with volatility around key support zones.

Oil prices rose by about 2% on Friday, supported by supply concerns after the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone attack that targeted an oil depot in one of Russia’s most important energy hubs.

Brent crude futures rose by 1.24 dollars, or 2%, to 64.25 dollars a barrel by 0950 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased by 1.30 dollars, or 2.2%, to 59.99 dollars a barrel.

Russian authorities said Friday’s attack damaged a ship inside the port, residential buildings, and an oil depot in Novorossiysk, injuring three crew members.

Industry sources told Reuters that the port halted oil exports, and Transneft, Russia’s pipeline monopoly, suspended crude supplies to the terminal.

Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS, said the pace of these attacks has increased and become much more frequent, adding that eventually one of them could hit a target that causes prolonged disruption. He said the market is trying to assess the impact of the recent attacks and what they mean for Russian oil supplies in the long term.

According to industry sources, crude shipments through Novorossiysk reached 3.22 million tons, equal to 761,000 barrels per day, in October, in addition to 1.794 million tons of exported oil products.

The price increases came after Brent and WTI fell by about 3% on Wednesday, pressured by an OPEC report stating that global supplies will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier expectations of a supply deficit.

Benchmark contracts are still on track for weekly gains, with Brent up about 1% so far and WTI rising 0.2%.

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by less than estimates.

Crude inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels to 427.6 million barrels in the week ending November 7, according to the EIA, compared with a Reuters poll forecasting a 1.96 million-barrel increase.

Investors are also monitoring the impact of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade flows. The United States imposed sanctions banning transactions with Russia’s oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, as part of efforts to push the Kremlin into peace talks over Ukraine.

JPMorgan said Thursday that about 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil, nearly one-third of its potential seaborne exports, have been added to inventories being held on tankers, as discharging operations slow due to U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil.

The bank added that unloading shipments could become more difficult after the November 21 deadline for receiving oil supplied by the two companies.

The US dollar headed toward a weekly loss on Friday, as investors trimmed positions while awaiting a clearer assessment of the backlog of US economic data following the government’s reopening.

Traders sold the US currency despite rising yields and declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The moves came alongside broad selling in US equities and bonds, which extended into Asian stock markets on Friday.

Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (NAB), said: "There’s a whiff of a return to ‘sell America’ in the air."

A growing number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled caution toward additional easing, citing inflation concerns and signs of relative stability in the labor market.

Even so, the shift toward a more hawkish stance failed to support the dollar, which fell to a two-week low versus the euro in the previous session. The single currency rose above 1.16 dollars and was last up 0.1% at 1.1644 dollars.

The Swiss franc also held near its strongest level in more than three weeks, trading at 0.7919 per dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index hovered near a two-week low at 99.14, on track for a weekly decline of 0.4%.

Joseph Capurso, head of international and geopolitics FX research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said markets will begin receiving a flood of delayed US data next week, adding: “We think it’s going to be very bad.”

Under normal circumstances, such data would reinforce expectations for further rate cuts to support the economy, but the expected fragmentation of upcoming releases may explain why rate expectations have shifted in the opposite direction.

The White House also noted that the October unemployment rate may not be published at all, as the household survey underpinning the data was not conducted during the shutdown.

“When you’re in the fog, you drive slowly… and when you don’t know what’s happening in the economy, you may slow the pace of easing,” Capurso said.

Investors are currently pricing a better-than-50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, while a January cut is almost fully priced in. Expectations for 2026 remain largely unchanged.

Asia saw an active session in currencies, with sharp moves in the British pound and the Korean won, while China’s onshore yuan strengthened to its highest level in more than a year.

Sterling fell 0.3% to 1.3152 dollars after failing to hold overnight gains of 0.45% against the weaker dollar. The decline followed a Financial Times report that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves had abandoned plans to raise income tax weeks before the November 26 budget announcement.

“If that means fiscal tightening won’t be as severe as expected, it could be less harmful for the economy — but foreign investors in UK bonds will worry more about the underlying fiscal position,” said NAB’s Attrill, describing the market’s quick negative reaction as justified.

The Korean won jumped 1% against the dollar after authorities pledged measures to support the currency, amid speculation of direct intervention via dollar sales.

The Japanese yen found some support from the weaker dollar but remained near a nine-month low, trading at 154.51 per dollar and still heading for a weekly loss of 0.7%.

In Australia, the Australian dollar remained under pressure after falling in the previous session amid risk aversion linked to expectations of higher-for-longer US rates. The aussie rose 0.11% to 0.6538 dollars, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.6% to 0.5687 dollars, supported by data showing a pickup in industrial activity in October and news that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would ease mortgage-lending restrictions from December 1.

In China, the onshore yuan hit a one-year high at 7.0908 per dollar, supported by exporter-driven dollar selling after a key technical level was breached.

Friday’s data showed China’s industrial output and retail sales posting their weakest growth in more than a year in October, while new home prices recorded their fastest monthly decline in twelve months.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Friday, resuming the gains that temporarily paused yesterday due to correction and profit-taking, and moving once again toward a three-week high. The metal is also on track to record a weekly gain, supported by the weaker performance of the US dollar in the foreign-exchange market.

These gains are being limited by more hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, which have reduced expectations of a US rate cut in December. Investors are also awaiting the resumption of official economic data releases after the reopening of the federal government.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Spot gold rose by 0.95% to 4,211.52 dollars per ounce, from the opening level of 4,171.72 dollars, after touching an intraday low of 4,159.09 dollars.

• At Thursday’s settlement, gold lost 0.55% in its first decline in five sessions, due to correction and profit-taking, after earlier touching a three-week high of 4,245.13 dollars per ounce.

Weekly Trading

So far this week—ending officially at today’s settlement—gold prices are up by more than 5%, and are on the verge of recording their first weekly gain in a month.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell on Friday by 0.1%, extending losses for a second session, and nearing a two-week low, reflecting the continued decline of the US currency against a basket of major currencies.

As we know, a weaker dollar makes dollar-priced bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies.

Despite the reopening of the US government after the longest shutdown in the nation’s history, markets remain concerned about the longer-term impact of the shutdown on US economic activity.

US Interest Rates

• Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, said on Thursday that the risks facing the Fed’s objectives of price stability and full employment are now “balanced.”

• Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, stated that interest-rate policy should remain restrictive in order to pressure inflation, which remains elevated.

• Alberto Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, noted that monetary policy is now closer to neutral than moderately restrictive, leaving limited room for further easing without becoming overly accommodative.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool: Market pricing for a 25-basis-point cut in December fell from 67% to 51%, while expectations of holding rates steady rose from 33% to 49%.

Investors continue monitoring Fed commentary closely, with expectations that official US data releases will resume soon.

Gold Outlook

Brian Lan, managing director at Gold Silver Central in Singapore, said gold performed strongly this week mainly due to the weaker dollar and speculative inflows anticipating Fed rate cuts.

He added that with the US government reopening—and amid concerns about slowing growth and persistent inflation—expectations have shifted slightly toward the Fed not cutting rates aggressively, which is putting some negative pressure on gold.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by 2.29 metric tons on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive increase, bringing total holdings to 1,048.93 metric tons—the highest level since October 22.