Bitcoin is currently testing the upper boundary of a two-month ascending channel near the 77,500 dollar level, at a time when the MACD indicator on the four-hour timeframe is shifting into negative territory. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 28 and 29 stands as the next major catalyst for the markets. This report reviews the technical structure, key levels, and on-chain data defining the currency's next direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately 76,863 dollars on April 27, up by less than 1% during the session, after temporarily touching 77,067 dollars during Asian trading. The currency has surged by about 30% since the February lows near 59,000 dollars within a well-defined ascending channel, but it is now testing the upper limit of this technical pattern. This coincides with MACD momentum turning negative, creating a state of directional tension that the Federal Reserve meeting may resolve.

The Ascending Channel Reaches a Decisive Point

The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin moving within a textbook ascending channel defined by two parallel upward-sloping lines since the February lows. This pattern has produced a series of higher highs and higher lows, with the price currently reaching the upper boundary near 77,500 dollars—a level that halted upward movement in previous attempts.

Moving averages remain in a positive configuration, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 77,691 dollars, the 50-day at 77,204, the 100-day at 75,721, and the 200-day at 72,145. All are positioned below the current price, a setup that supports the uptrend.

However, the MACD indicator is flashing a warning sign, recording a negative histogram reading at the channel's upper boundary. This suggests a slowing of bullish momentum rather than an acceleration. In previous instances, this pattern paved the way for a period of consolidation or a brief pullback rather than an immediate breakout.

Key Levels: Support, Resistance, and Targets

Immediate resistance lies at the upper boundary of the channel between 77,500 and 78,000 dollars, the same range that capped gains during a previous test in April. Above this level, the 80,000 dollar barrier is the primary target for the bullish scenario. A close above it, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, could open the way toward the 200-day moving average near 85,000 dollars—a level viewed as the dividing line between the current corrective trend and the start of a clear bullish reversal.

On the downside, the 100-day moving average at 75,721 dollars represents the first significant support level. A break below this level on a closing basis could push the price toward the lower boundary of the channel between 72,000 and 73,000 dollars, where it intersects with the 200-day moving average. A daily close below this area would invalidate the ascending channel model and shift the outlook to bearish.

ETF Flows and Derivatives Positions

The ascent toward the upper boundary of the channel has been supported by strong institutional flows. Bitcoin ETFs recorded eight consecutive days of inflows totaling 2.43 billion dollars as of April 23, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust capturing approximately 907.97 million dollars in a single week.

Despite this support, on-chain data indicates that short-term investors are utilizing these flows as exit liquidity at levels between 78,000 and 80,100 dollars—levels that have limited gains multiple times during 2026. Additionally, open interest in futures contracts fell by more than 6% during the last test of the 78,000 dollar level, indicating position liquidation rather than the building of new long positions.

The Fed Meeting as a Decisive Catalyst

The FOMC meeting represents the most critical factor in determining the next direction. Expectations point to a 98% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged, making Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s tone the decisive factor.

If the statements lean toward monetary easing and hint at future rate cuts, it could support a breakout above the 80,000 dollar level. However, if the tone is neutral or hawkish, consolidation within the channel or a pullback toward support levels is more likely.

If Bitcoin successfully maintains the ascending channel and breaks 80,000 dollars supported by the Fed meeting results, the 85,000 dollar level will be the next station to test a clear trend shift.

Oil prices rose by 3% on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as efforts to end the war between the United States and Iran stalled. The vital Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, depriving global markets of key energy supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures for June delivery climbed by 3.28 dollars, or 3.03%, to reach 111.51 dollars per barrel by 11:15 GMT, after rising 2.8% in the previous session to close at its highest level since April 7. This marks the seventh consecutive session of gains for the contract. At its daily peak on Tuesday, Brent rose as much as 3.4% to reach 111.86 dollars.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery surged by 3.47 dollars, or 3.6%, to 99.84 dollars per barrel, following a 2.1% rise in the previous session.

A U.S. official stated that President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with the latest Iranian proposal to end the war. Iranian sources clarified that the proposal avoided addressing the nuclear program until hostilities cease and disputes over Gulf shipping are resolved.

This impasse keeps the conflict at a deadlock. Iran continues to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—which handles approximately 20% of global oil and gas supplies—while the United States maintains its blockade of Iranian ports.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, noted: "Oil prices crossing the 110 dollars per barrel mark reflects a market rapidly repricing geopolitical risks." He added that with stalled peace talks and no clear path to reopening the Strait, traders are pricing in the likelihood of prolonged disruption to one of the world's most critical supply arteries. Leon suggested that even in a best-case scenario, any agreement would likely be limited and partial, leaving the issue of the Strait unresolved and maintaining upward pressure on prices.

A previous round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran collapsed last week after direct talks failed. Vessel tracking data shows significant regional disruption, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the U.S. blockade, though some limited shipping continues.

Data indicated that a Panama-flagged tanker named "Idemitsu Maru" attempted to transit the Strait on Tuesday carrying Saudi oil, while an LNG tanker operated by ADNOC successfully crossed. Prior to the outbreak of the conflict on February 28, daily traffic through the Strait averaged between 125 and 140 vessels.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM, emphasized that the loss of approximately 10 million barrels per day of oil and products through the Strait of Hormuz would far outweigh any drop in demand caused by inflationary pressures, leading to an increasingly tight global oil market.

The Japanese yen stabilized on Tuesday after initially rising following a split decision by the Bank of Japan to hold interest rates steady. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar edged higher as markets focused on upcoming central bank guidance amid the ongoing impact of the war with Iran.

The yen was last seen trading slightly lower against the dollar at 159.63 and up marginally against the Euro at 186.75, retracing most of the gains made after three out of nine board members dissented, calling for a rate hike. In its quarterly outlook, the bank sharply raised core inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ending March 2027 and 2028, while lowering growth projections for both years.

During a press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open for future hikes but provided no clear timeline for policy shifts.

Takeshi Ishida, a strategist at Kansai Mirai Bank, noted: "The yen rose immediately after the meeting because the economic outlook leaned hawkish and three members dissented. Markets then waited cautiously for the Governor’s press conference, but it wasn't as hawkish as the statement suggested, causing the yen to pare its early gains."

The persistent weakness of the yen remains a concern for Tokyo. Earlier Tuesday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned speculators that volatility in crude oil futures is spilling into currency markets, adding that authorities are on high alert 24/7 to take decisive action.

In contrast, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.18% to 98.64, snapping a two-day losing streak.

While President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to end the war with senior national security aides on Monday, a U.S. official later stated that Trump was dissatisfied as the proposal did not address Iran's nuclear program.

Despite rising oil prices fueled by doubts over a diplomatic solution, the dollar struggled to find strong momentum. Derek Halpenny, head of research at MUFG, pointed out that the resilience of U.S. equity markets—driven by strong corporate earnings and AI-related optimism—is offsetting some risks associated with higher energy costs and limiting dollar buying.

Markets are also eyeing Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady in what could be Jerome Powell’s final meeting before Kevin Warsh takes over in May, following the removal of legislative hurdles to Warsh's appointment.

Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered, said: "This meeting is less about a change in policy and more about the Fed's economic assessment. The inflation picture is improving very slowly, which will be a significant issue for Warsh to manage upon his arrival."

Other major central bank decisions from the Eurozone, the UK, and Canada are also expected later this week. The Euro fell 0.14% to 1.1704 dollars, while the British pound declined 0.17% to 1.3507 dollars.

Gold prices deepened their losses in the European market on Tuesday, falling for a second consecutive day and hitting their lowest level in three weeks. The precious metal is approaching a break below the 4,600 dollars per ounce mark, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

The resurgence of the American currency comes as investors seek safe-haven assets, following a decline in optimism regarding the success of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is set to begin later today, with decisions expected on Wednesday. Markets broadly anticipate that interest rates will remain unchanged for the third consecutive meeting.

Price Overview

- Gold Prices Today: Gold dropped by 1.4% to (4,614.90 dollars), the lowest level since April 7, from an opening level of (4,681.89 dollars), after recording a session high of (4,701.33 dollars).

- At Monday's close, gold prices lost 0.6%, marking the second loss in three days due to developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace talks.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose by 0.25% on Tuesday, resuming gains after a two-session pause. This climb reflects renewed demand for the dollar as the preferred alternative investment amid fears that the current diplomatic efforts may stall, increasing the risk of renewed military confrontations in the Middle East.

An official indicated that President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with Iran's latest proposal to resolve the two-month-old conflict, which has heavily disrupted global energy supplies. Axios previously reported that Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war while deferring nuclear negotiations to a later stage.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve begins its policy meeting later today, with expectations firm that rates will be held steady at 3.75%—a three-year low—for the third straight meeting. The subsequent policy statement and Jerome Powell's press conference will provide critical evidence regarding the trajectory of U.S. interest rates for the remainder of the year.

U.S. Interest Rates

- Kevin Warsh, a nominee for a senior Federal Reserve position, stated last week that he has not made any promises to Trump regarding rate cuts.

- According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of keeping rates unchanged this week stands at 99%, with only a 1% probability of a 25-basis-point hike.

Gold Performance Expectations

Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex, noted that geopolitical headlines remain the primary driver for gold prices. He suggested that a confirmed agreement or even a temporary deal between the U.S. and Iran would likely weaken the dollar and boost gold. Meir added that the Fed's role is currently limited, as no immediate rate action is expected, though cuts could occur in the fourth quarter as the global economy slows.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust decreased by approximately 2.28 metric tons on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive daily decline. Total holdings fell to 1,044.34 metric tons, the lowest level since November 24, 2025.