The euro slipped slightly in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, extending its losses for a second consecutive session against the US dollar and moving further away from a two-week high. The decline comes amid profit-taking and corrective selling, as well as risk aversion driven by investor caution ahead of further developments in the ongoing peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Following recent media reports and the rebound in global oil prices, expectations for a European Central Bank rate hike at the June meeting have increased. Investors now await the release of the eurozone’s key inflation data for May later today to reassess those expectations.

The Price

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell by less than 0.1% against the US dollar to $1.1627, from an opening level of $1.1632, while the session high stood at $1.1635.

• The euro closed Monday down 0.2% against the dollar, its first loss in three sessions, due to corrective selling and profit-taking after reaching a two-week high of $1.1686 on Friday.

• Beyond profit-taking activity, the euro also came under pressure following limited military exchanges between the United States and Iran.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose about 0.1% on Tuesday, maintaining gains for a second consecutive session and reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance comes as investors remain cautious and avoid taking excessive risk while awaiting the outcome of negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Top News

• Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.

• Trump said: “I had a very productive call with Hezbollah through high-level representatives, and they have agreed to a full ceasefire.”

• Trump said negotiations with Iran are continuing at a rapid pace.

• Trump stated that he is not concerned about oil prices, which surged after reports that Iran may fully close the Strait of Hormuz and suspend negotiations with the United States.

• Iran is seeking an end to hostilities on all fronts, along with the lifting of the naval blockade and easing of economic sanctions.

European interest rates

• Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is highly likely to raise interest rates in June due to inflation expectations moving toward an undesirable scenario.

• With global oil prices rising, money markets have increased the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike at the June meeting from 75% to 95%.

Eurozone inflation

To reassess expectations for European interest rates this year, investors are awaiting the release of the eurozone’s May inflation data later today, which will provide further insight into inflationary pressures facing policymakers at the European Central Bank.

At 09:00 GMT, the annual eurozone Consumer Price Index is expected to show a 3.2% increase in May, up from 3.0% in April. Core inflation is expected to rise by 2.4%, compared with 2.2% in the previous month.

Outlook for the euro

We expect that if inflation data comes in hotter than current market expectations, the probability of a European interest rate hike in June will increase further, which would support higher euro levels against a basket of global currencies.

The Japanese yen declined in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, extending its losses for a second consecutive session against the US dollar and approaching a five-week low. The currency is also nearing the key 160 threshold, a level widely viewed as a trigger point for Japanese authorities to intervene in support of the yen and curb excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Meanwhile, the US dollar maintained its gains against major global currencies as investors remained cautious ahead of further developments in the ongoing peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The Price

• The Japanese yen exchange rate today: The US dollar rose by less than 0.1% against the yen to ¥159.72, from an opening level of ¥159.66, while the session low stood at ¥159.57.

• The yen closed Monday down about 0.3% against the dollar, hitting a five-week low of ¥159.77 after limited military exchanges between the United States and Iran.

The 160 yen threshold

Japanese authorities are closely monitoring movements in the currency market as the yen approaches the critical ¥160-per-dollar level, which has long been viewed as a potential trigger for intervention.

According to Reuters sources, Tokyo intervened several times in late April and early May to halt the yen’s decline. However, the currency’s recovery proved short-lived. At the time, the exchange rate reached ¥159.25 per dollar, its weakest level since April 30.

Japan’s finance minister

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated on Tuesday that authorities stand ready to intervene in the currency market if necessary, while declining to comment directly on recent yen movements.

Market views and analysis

Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities, said that if the dollar rises above ¥160, the risk of surpassing the April 30 high would increase significantly, raising the likelihood of stronger verbal warnings, rate reviews, or direct market intervention.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose about 0.1% on Tuesday, holding onto gains for a second consecutive session and reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance comes as investors remain cautious and avoid taking excessive risk while awaiting the outcome of negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Top News

• Lebanon announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.

• Trump said: “I had a very productive call with Hezbollah through high-level representatives, and they have agreed to a full ceasefire.”

• Trump said negotiations with Iran are continuing at a rapid pace.

• Trump stated that he is not concerned about oil prices, which surged after reports that Iran may fully close the Strait of Hormuz and suspend negotiations with the United States.

• Iran is seeking an end to hostilities on all fronts, along with the lifting of the naval blockade and easing of economic sanctions.

Japanese interest rates

• The Bank of Japan will meet on June 15–16 to assess the appropriate monetary policy tools for the world’s fourth-largest economy.

• Market pricing for a quarter-point rate hike at the upcoming June meeting remains stable at around 60%.

• Investors are closely awaiting a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday for clues on whether the central bank intends to proceed with a rate increase in June.

• Investors will also monitor upcoming Japanese data on inflation, unemployment, and wages to reassess expectations for future monetary policy.

Ethereum (ETH) continues to struggle with a bearish trend following its weak performance after breaking above the $2,500 level earlier in 2026. The cryptocurrency has now fallen below $2,088, which corresponds to the 100-period simple moving average.

A review of Ethereum’s chart shows that the broader technical structure remains bearish. The market continues to post lower highs and lower lows, while the rebound following the mid-May decline failed to generate meaningful upside momentum. Even when prices attempt to recover, sellers emerge near resistance levels and cap further gains.

Key levels and what Ethereum’s chart is showing

The 100-period simple moving average at $2,088 remains the most important level to watch on the upside. Every recent test of this area has been met with rejection, indicating that buyers have yet to regain control of the market.

Below current prices, Ethereum is trading near the $1,967–$1,990 range, which is currently acting as a support zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.28, approaching oversold territory but still some distance away. This generally suggests that bearish momentum has slowed, though it is by no means a guarantee of a bullish reversal. Similar situations have previously produced failed rallies when prices lacked sufficient momentum to sustain an advance.

Trading volume is currently around 15.44 thousand units, a moderate level that has not been accompanied by strong buying activity to support the recent green candles. This lack of conviction remains one of the key reasons why recovery attempts have repeatedly stalled.

With the RSI nearing oversold conditions, a rebound toward the $2,050–$2,088 area cannot be ruled out if buyers return to the market.

However, the broader picture remains bearish. As long as Ethereum stays below $2,088, the technical structure will remain under pressure. A breakout and close above that level would represent the first meaningful sign of a shift in momentum.

If Ethereum loses the $1,950 level, the path could open for a deeper decline toward the $1,850–$1,900 zone, which represents the next major support area on the chart.

Ethereum upgrades, regulation, and whale activity

Beyond price action, Ethereum’s future will also be shaped by the network’s technical roadmap and growing adoption trends.

The network currently has around seven upgrades planned through 2029, including two major upgrades expected during 2026:

Glamsterdam

Hegotá

The Glamsterdam upgrade will focus primarily on improving Ethereum’s scalability, potentially allowing the network to process significantly more transactions. If successful, it could make Ethereum more attractive for application development thanks to greater efficiency.

The Hegotá upgrade, expected to follow Glamsterdam, may introduce technologies such as Verkle Trees. These enhancements are designed to improve network efficiency while maintaining high performance.

If these upgrades are successfully implemented, they could increase Ethereum adoption, which may ultimately translate into stronger demand for ETH.

The upgrades also focus on scalability improvements such as parallel transaction execution and enhanced data efficiency. These developments aim to significantly increase Ethereum’s capacity. From a price perspective, improved scalability is important because it typically supports greater usage, lower friction, and increased demand for block space over time.

Institutional investors are providing little support

Institutional investors have offered limited support for Ethereum’s price in recent weeks.

During the trading week from May 25 to May 29, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $241 million.

Most of those withdrawals came from BlackRock’s ETHA fund, which alone saw net outflows of $188 million.

Nor was this an isolated event. Ethereum ETFs have now recorded 13 consecutive sessions of net outflows, with approximately $694 million withdrawn from these investment products.

Looking at the month of May as a whole, the trend was relatively consistent, with more capital leaving the market than entering it.

While this does not necessarily mean Ethereum is destined for further declines, it does create an additional hurdle for buyers. If institutional appetite continues to weaken, maintaining momentum and achieving meaningful gains will become increasingly difficult.

For this reason, traders are closely monitoring ETF flow data and upcoming economic releases.

Ethereum price outlook for June 2026

Ethereum enters June in a challenging position. The price remains below the key $2,088 level, keeping downside pressure intact.

At the same time, the RSI is hovering near 39, while major support lies between $1,967 and $1,990, leaving room for a short-term corrective rebound.

If sellers remain in control, Ethereum could trade within a range of $1,900 to $2,050 throughout June.

A neutral scenario would see the cryptocurrency fluctuating between $1,950 and $2,100.

If buyers manage to decisively break above and hold the $2,088 level, the next upside target could be $2,200.

Oil prices surged on Monday after US President Donald Trump told CNBC that he does not care if negotiations with Iran come to an end, raising concerns that Washington and Tehran may fail to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed more than 5% to settle at $92.16 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude rose more than 4% to close at $95.23 per barrel.

Trump's remarks came in response to a report by Iranian state media claiming that Tehran would suspend talks with the United States in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon and was planning to completely close the Strait of Hormuz as a retaliatory measure.

Speaking in a phone interview with CNBC correspondent Eamon Javers, Trump said: “I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less. I think they’ve taken far too long. Frankly, I’m starting to think it’s becoming very boring.”

However, oil prices later trimmed some of their gains after Trump said on social media that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed not to advance Israeli forces toward the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

Trump also indicated that talks with Iran were “still ongoing and moving at a rapid pace with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

US crude had jumped more than 8% earlier in the session, but Trump said he was not concerned about rising oil prices.

“I think oil prices are going to come down very sharply in the near future,” he said.

Iran threatens to tighten the blockade

The weekend saw a fresh exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran, while Israel ordered its forces to push deeper into Lebanon, renewing concerns that the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran could collapse.

According to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency, Tehran is demanding an end to Israeli attacks on Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied areas in Lebanon before resuming negotiations with the United States.

The report added that Iran intends to fully close the Strait of Hormuz and expand pressure to other strategic routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important trade corridors linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Sharp market volatility

Last week, Brent and WTI crude posted their largest weekly losses since mid-April, falling 11.1% and 9.6%, respectively, amid hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations.

Despite those losses, oil futures remain more than 30% higher since the US- and Israeli-led war against Iran began on February 28.

Goldman Sachs: Risks remain in both directions

Goldman Sachs said the risks surrounding its oil price outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 remain “two-sided.”

The bank expects Brent crude to reach $90 per barrel and WTI crude to trade at $83 per barrel, while warning that continued supply disruptions in the Middle East could push prices higher. At the same time, a slowdown in global demand could create significant downward pressure on prices.