The euro fell in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, for the first time in the last five days against the US dollar, giving up its five-week high due to correction and profit-taking operations. 

Despite this decline, the single European currency remains on its way toward achieving its second consecutive weekly gain, amid improved sentiment in global markets after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation. 

Price overview 

- Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell against the dollar by 0.1% to ($1.1685), from the opening price of the day at ($1.1697), and recorded a high of ($1.1702). 

- The euro ended Thursday's trading up by 0.3% against the dollar, in its fourth consecutive daily gain, and recorded a five-week high at $1.1723, thanks to the agreement between the United States and Iran on a ceasefire. 

Weekly trading 

Over the course of this week's trading, which officially ends at the settlement of prices today, the single European currency "the Euro" is up so far by 1.5% against the American currency "the Dollar," on the verge of achieving its second consecutive weekly gain, and its largest weekly gain since last January. 

Agreement to stop the Iranian war 

- The United States and Iran agree on a two-week ceasefire and plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation. 

- U.S. President "Donald Trump" agreed to suspend attacks and aerial bombardment against Iran for 14 days, following intensive Pakistani and Qatari mediation. 

- Iran announced its agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation "fully and safely," with technical coordination with the Iranian armed forces to secure the passage of ships. 

- Direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran are scheduled to begin later today in the city of "Islamabad" in Pakistan, in order to reach a final agreement that ensures the total cessation of military operations and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Global oil prices 

Global oil prices declined over the course of this week by an average of 12%, on track to incur the largest weekly loss since June 2025, as fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East subsided after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to giant oil tankers. 

European interest rates 

- Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said: The bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term. 

- Data released recently showed that inflation in the eurozone exceeded the European Central Bank's target to reach 2.5% in March with the rise in energy prices. 

- Following that data, the money market pricing of the probabilities of the European Central Bank raising European interest rates by about 25 basis points in this April rose from 30% to 35%. 

- Sources reported to Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing raising interest rates during the meeting of this month. 

- In order to re-price the above probabilities, investors await the release of more economic data in the eurozone regarding the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The New Zealand dollar fell in Asian trading on Friday against a basket of major and minor currencies, giving up its two-week high against its American counterpart due to correction and profit-taking operations. 

Despite this decline, the New Zealand currency remains on track to achieve its largest weekly gain since last January, thanks to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy meeting, which came out more hawkish than expected in the markets. 

In line with expectations, the New Zealand central bank kept interest rates steady without any change at a 4-year low for the second consecutive meeting, and warned of rising inflation in the short term due to the repercussions of the Iranian war and high global oil prices. 

Price overview 

- New Zealand dollar exchange rate today: The New Zealand dollar fell against the U.S. dollar by about 0.3% to (0.5845), from the opening price of today's trading at (0.5862), and recorded a high of (0.5864). 

- The New Zealand dollar ended Thursday's trading up by 0.65% against the U.S. dollar, in its fourth consecutive daily gain, and recorded a two-week high at 58.74 cents. 

- Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, markets expected up to three increases in New Zealand interest rates this year. 

Weekly trading 

Over the course of this week's trading, which officially ends at the settlement of prices today, the New Zealand dollar is up so far by about 2.8% against the U.S. dollar, on the verge of achieving its first weekly gain in the last three weeks, and its largest weekly gain since last January. 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the 2.25% range, which is considered the lowest level since July 2022, in line with most expectations in global markets, and for the second consecutive meeting. 

The New Zealand central bank indicated that the Iranian war has led to a significant change in the economic outlook and the balance of risks related to inflation and economic growth in the near term in New Zealand. 

The bank warned of its readiness to move decisively if the energy and Middle East crisis leads to sustained inflationary pressures, hinting that the next step could be a rate hike later this year. 

The bank expects inflation to rise in the near term as a result of increased fuel and oil prices. GDP growth forecasts were adjusted to become weaker due to declining domestic demand. 

Anna Breman 

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, "Anna Breman," said: If we notice that inflation in the medium term has begun to rise, we will take decisive action, and this means raising interest rates. The balance of risks regarding inflation has changed, and there are greater risks to the upside. 

Breman explained: The monetary policy makers agreed that a rate hike was not necessary this month, but the possibility of raising it was discussed, as was also the case regarding the possibility of raising it in May. 

New Zealand interest rates 

- Following the meeting mentioned above, the pricing of the probability of raising New Zealand interest rates by about 25 basis points at the May 27 meeting rose to above 50%. 

- The pricing of the probability of raising New Zealand interest rates by about 25 basis points at the July meeting rose to above 90%, with the expectation that this year will see three interest rate increases. 

- In order to re-price these probabilities, investors await the release of several important economic data points from New Zealand regarding inflation, unemployment, and economic growth over the coming period.

Ethereum has decisively reclaimed the $2,200 level, which is a clear indication of a structural shift in the market, now opening the way toward testing the $2,400 level. 

The recent movement is not just a temporary bounce, but rather came after a comprehensive reset of leverage near $1,800, followed by a steady accumulation phase, and then pushing the price toward higher levels. 

With buyers entering strongly and the price forming higher lows, Ethereum is moving into a new bullish phase. 

How did rebalancing contribute to supporting the recovery? 

The recent rise above $2,200 came after a deep deleveraging phase near $1,800, where open interest decreased by more than $2 billion, reflecting the exit of many leveraged positions from the market. 

The important thing here: the price did not collapse as the market cleared out threatened positions, but instead stabilized around $1,800, forming a strong demand base. 

This divergence indicates that actual demand was absorbing selling pressure, allowing the market to transition to a more stable phase when leverage returned, and thus allowing the price to rise toward $2,200+ while reducing downside risks. 

Price structure analysis: $2,400 is the next target 

Ethereum is now trading within a clear bullish structure, with the formation of higher lows and pushing the price toward the resistance between $2,200–$2,300. 

Reclaiming key moving averages confirms the strength of the momentum, while the structure reflects the continuous absorption of demand. 

In case of breaking the resistance: the next target is $2,400, which is the next key supply level. 

On the downside: $2,100 is immediate support, and the bullish structure remains intact as long as ETH is above $1,800. 

Future outlook 

Ethereum has turned bullish, and the current setup justifies the focus on $2,400. 

With the leverage reset, the building of new positions, and the reclaiming of key levels, the market is entering a phase of controlled expansion. 

Breaking the resistance means that the transition toward $2,400 will be a continuation of the current movement and not just a distant stretch. 

In short: the market is bullish, and the move toward $2,400 depends on confirming the break of current resistance.

No country was better prepared for a war with Iran than China. While the rest of Asia suffers from oil and gas supply shortages as a result of the war, Beijing appears to be in a comfortable position thanks to its massive crude oil reserves and its enormous clean energy infrastructure.

Over the past years, China has worked to develop its domestic clean energy sector at a faster pace than any other country in the world. At the same time, it has stockpiled large quantities of surplus oil and gas in anticipation of a major geopolitical disruption like the one the world is currently witnessing. As a result, China's ability is not only limited to weathering the current global energy crisis better than any other country, but it may also emerge from it stronger and more capable of consolidating its position on the international stage.

Under normal circumstances, about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, making it a vital corridor for transporting energy from the oil-rich Middle East to global markets, especially buyers in Asia. However, this flow has now largely declined, pushing world leaders to urgently seek alternative energy sources.

This disruption — which is considered the largest of its kind in world history — is likely to push the global transition toward clean energy to accelerate significantly, as the sharp rise in oil and gas prices will make wind and solar energy more competitive and less expensive compared to fossil fuels. Forbes magazine mentioned earlier this month: "For many years, clean energy was promoted as a moral necessity, but now it has simply become an economic and geopolitical necessity. It is no longer just about emissions, but about resilience and price stability."

This development is positive news for China, which has worked for years to strengthen its global dominance in the field of clean energy, as part of its quest to become the world's first "electric state" that relies broadly on clean energy and electricity in its economy. It is likely that the acceleration of the global transition toward clean energy will depend heavily on Chinese supply chains, as Beijing currently controls the largest share of the world's production of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Yang Peking, an analyst specializing in Chinese affairs from the energy think tank Ember based in London, said in statements recently reported by the Washington Post: "This is part of a long-term trend and not just an immediate response to rising oil and gas prices. Energy security has become increasingly important on government agendas, and the transition toward clean energy is increasingly seen as a means to enhance energy security."

This shift is likely to play significantly into China's interest, especially in light of the United States — Beijing's largest economic competitor — moving away from the clean energy sector during the administration of President Donald Trump. While Trump described support for clean energy as a threat to national security, China used government subsidies for green energy to transform itself into a clean energy superpower that the world cannot ignore or do without dealing with, especially amidst growing concerns over inflation and recession resulting from the war with Iran and the energy crisis looming on the horizon as a result.

Increasingly, it seems that the world's two largest economies are engaged in what resembles an "energy war": one country heading toward a future based on electricity and clean energy on one hand, and a country relying on traditional fossil fuels on the other.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the Washington Post: "In the future energy system, geopolitics play a role no less important than the economic choices of countries. It is no longer limited to choosing between fossil fuels and green energy, but has become to some extent a choice between two camps in the world and how countries position themselves within this divide."

At the same time, China continues to strengthen its strategy in the energy sector that placed it in this strong strategic position. Although clean energy is a fundamental element in this strategy, assuming that China is fighting a pure climate war would be an oversimplification. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system that maintains an "all options are available" approach to ensure the country's energy security, including expanding the role of hydropower and nuclear energy, along with continued reliance on coal, which is the most polluting type of fossil fuel.

Xi said: "The path we followed when we were among the first countries to develop wind and solar energy has proven to be a forward-looking path." He added: "At the same time, coal-fired power plants still form the basis of our energy system and must continue to perform their supporting role."