The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, beginning to recover after two days of losses against the US dollar, benefiting from a slowdown in the US currency amid growing optimism over a potential halt in the Iran war.

Following more hawkish comments from the President of the European Central Bank, expectations for at least one interest rate hike this year have increased. To reassess those expectations, markets are awaiting further data on developments in the eurozone economy.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1572, up from the session opening level of $1.1558, after hitting a low of $1.1554.

The euro ended Wednesday’s session down 0.4% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss, after Iran denied entering negotiations with the United States to end the war in the Middle East.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, marking its first decline in the past three sessions, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

This comes as traders assess the likelihood of a halt in the war in the Middle East, amid intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at containing the escalation, with cautious anticipation of any signals that could pave the way for a de-escalation agreement or ceasefire.

Iran war developments

US President Donald Trump said that Iran is making strong efforts to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting remarks by Iran’s foreign minister, who said the country is reviewing a US proposal but does not intend to hold talks to end the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that although there is no dialogue or negotiations with the United States, various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries.

Araghchi added in an interview with state television on Wednesday that conveying messages through friendly countries and clarifying positions or issuing necessary warnings does not constitute negotiations or dialogue.

Trump later said on Wednesday during an event in Washington that Iranian leaders are “negotiating” and are eager to reach a deal, but are reluctant to say so publicly.

The New York Times reported that the United States has sent Iran a plan consisting of 15 key points to end the war in the Middle East.

Sources said a one-month ceasefire will be announced under a mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, with negotiations on the fifteen points to take place during the ceasefire period.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Following those comments, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 25% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes next month.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further economic data from the eurozone on inflation, unemployment, and wage levels.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, beginning to recover after two days of losses against the US dollar, benefiting from a slowdown in the US currency, as traders assess the likelihood of a halt in the Iran war.

As inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan ease, expectations for a Japanese interest rate hike in April have declined. To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting further data on developments in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar fell 0.1% against the yen to ¥159.33, down from the session opening level of ¥159.46, after reaching a high of ¥159.54.

The yen ended Wednesday’s session down 0.5% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss, amid uncertainty over Iran’s response to a US proposal that includes a one-month ceasefire.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.1% on Thursday, marking its first decline in the past three sessions, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

This comes as traders assess the likelihood of a halt in the war in the Middle East, amid intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at containing the escalation, with cautious anticipation of any signals that could pave the way for a de-escalation agreement or ceasefire.

Iran war developments

US President Donald Trump said that Iran is making strong efforts to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting remarks by Iran’s foreign minister, who said the country is reviewing a US proposal but does not intend to hold talks to end the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that although there is no dialogue or negotiations with the United States, various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries.

Araghchi added in an interview with state television on Wednesday that conveying messages through friendly countries and clarifying positions or issuing necessary warnings does not constitute negotiations or dialogue.

Trump later said on Wednesday during an event in Washington that Iranian leaders are “negotiating” and are eager to reach a deal, but are reluctant to say so publicly.

The New York Times reported that the United States has sent Iran a plan consisting of 15 key points to end the war in the Middle East.

Sources said a one-month ceasefire will be announced under a mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, with negotiations on the fifteen points to take place during the ceasefire period.

Japanese interest rates

Data released this week showed a slowdown in core inflation in Japan during February, in the latest sign of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan.

Following the data, markets reduced pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 30% to 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Ethereum’s price has recently shown technical signals and market indicators leaning toward the upside, with a strong support level forming around $2,100, as large investors (whales) continue accumulating, reinforcing the likelihood of further gains in the near term.

In trading activity, buyers have managed to hold the price above key support levels during the recent correction, before the price rose more than 3% to around $2,170, supported by improved risk appetite in markets following easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in oil prices below $90.

Market data also indicates that large wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH purchased more than 750,000 ETH within 48 hours, a pattern commonly referred to as “whale accumulation,” which often precedes upward moves driven later by retail investor participation.

Another positive factor is the decline in Ethereum balances on exchanges to record lows near 15 million ETH, suggesting that investors are moving assets into cold storage or engaging in staking activities, reducing available supply for sale and supporting prices.

On the technical side, analysis points to the formation of a “cup and handle” pattern, a well-known bullish continuation structure. The neckline is located around $2,384, a critical level that, if broken, could push the price above $2,400 and open the way toward higher levels that may reach $3,000.

Technical indicators also support this outlook, with the Supertrend indicator signaling bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from neutral territory, indicating further room for upside before entering overbought conditions.

Overall, the potential to surpass the $2,400 level remains tied to buyers’ ability to break the key resistance at $2,384, alongside the continuation of supportive factors such as whale inflows, reduced exchange supply, and improving market sentiment.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East about a month ago, analysts have focused primarily on energy market data.

On March 2, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway responsible for transporting about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies. Since then, oil prices have surged sharply.

Prices jumped to more than $110 per barrel, prompting the United States to launch an operation to reopen the strait by deploying aircraft and helicopters to the region.

However, while markets are closely watching oil prices and fearing fuel shortages, other commodities are stranded in the Gulf and could have painful repercussions.

Helium

It may come as a surprise to some that helium’s uses extend far beyond party balloons, as it is a key element in semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging, and space technologies.

Qatar produces about one-third of global helium supply, which passes through the strait, but it has been forced to halt production following the outbreak of the war, with warnings that strikes on energy infrastructure will further paralyze exports.

Helium transport is also complex, as it is stored in insulated containers for between 35 and 48 days in liquid form.

After that period, the molecules begin to warm and leak, meaning shipments stranded in the strait quickly lose their value, disrupting supply chains.

Helium is a vital component in semiconductor production, including chips used in artificial intelligence models, which could affect shares of major technology companies already facing concerns about a potential AI sector bubble.

Other uses

Helium is also used in MRI machines to cool magnets and in the space sector to clean rocket fuel tanks.

Demand is expected to rise in the space industry as more private companies enter the field, such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.

Thomas Abraham-James, CEO of Pulsar Helium, said the current crisis presents two simultaneous challenges for the helium market.

He added that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means that even if infrastructure remains intact, products cannot reach markets.

He explained that supply could begin to resume within weeks if tensions ease, but a return to normal production levels could take months, while restoring damaged capacity may take years.

Fertilizers

Fertilizer components that support nearly half of global food production also pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf countries account for about 49% of global urea trade, a nitrogen-rich fertilizer used in crops such as wheat.

Urea prices have risen more than 40% since the outbreak of the war, at a sensitive time coinciding with the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning the impact could reach consumers.

The impact is not limited to prices, as supply shortages could lead to lower agricultural output due to difficulty in obtaining fertilizers.

Ammonia prices have also risen by about 20%, another key fertilizer component, at a time when producing countries such as Qatar have been forced to halt production due to strikes and the closure of the strait.

Analysts believe that continued disruptions could increase pressure on agricultural markets and raise the risk of global food inflation.