Euro under pressure ahead of Christine Lagarde's speech

The euro fell in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, resuming losses after a two-day recovery against the US dollar and moving closer once again to its lowest levels in 13 months, as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East followed military exchanges between the United States and Iran.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the opening speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, with investors looking for fresh signals on the outlook for European interest rates during the remainder of the year.

The Price

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell around 0.1% against the US dollar to $1.1379, from an opening level of $1.1389, after touching an intraday high of $1.1393.

• The euro ended Friday’s session up 0.1% against the dollar, marking a second consecutive daily gain as it continued to recover from a 13-month low of $1.1325.

• The euro lost around 0.75% against the dollar last week, posting a second straight weekly decline amid renewed concerns over a widening interest rate gap between Europe and the United States.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose around 0.1% on Monday, resuming gains after a two-session pause driven by correction and profit-taking from a 13-month high, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance was supported by demand for the dollar as a preferred alternative investment, particularly after renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran following attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on several vessels.

Iran war developments

• The United States and Iran have halted hostilities, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following weekend clashes.

• The United States carried out strikes against Iranian targets in response to attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Gulf states condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Israel announced that it had resumed attacks on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

• Technical negotiations are scheduled to resume on Tuesday in Doha, with both sides expected to focus on disputes related to the Strait of Hormuz, particularly freedom of navigation and the management framework for the maritime corridor.

European interest rates

• Reports: The European Central Bank is considering pausing monetary policy normalization in July if energy prices remain at current levels.

• Money markets currently price the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in July at around 30%.

• Investors are awaiting additional eurozone data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth to reassess those expectations.

Christine Lagarde

At 17:30 GMT, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the opening address at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

The speech could provide further insight into inflation developments across the eurozone and the ECB’s outlook for interest rates during the remainder of the year.