The US dollar was on track Monday for its largest monthly gain in nearly a year, supported by rising expectations for higher interest rates and growing optimism about the US economy, while investors monitored developments in the Gulf ahead of this week’s closely watched US employment report.

The United States and Iran exchanged fresh attacks over the weekend before agreeing to halt hostilities and hold talks in Qatar on Tuesday, keeping investors cautious about the durability of the ceasefire agreement and helping support oil prices.

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1399 after hitting a 13-month low against the US currency last week, though it remained on track for a monthly loss of 2.4%.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 101.34, remaining close to the 13-month high reached last week.

The dollar has gained against all major currencies this month, with its strongest performance coming against Scandinavian currencies and the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which have fallen between 4.7% and 7%.

Rising inflation pressures, combined with the unexpectedly hawkish start to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s tenure, have reshaped market expectations for interest rates this year, while the AI-driven rally in US equities continues to attract substantial capital inflows.

As a result, the dollar is on track to gain roughly 2.5% in June, marking its strongest monthly performance since July 2025.

“This is very significant because since April of last year there has been a lot of discussion about a structural decline in the dollar,” said Jane Foley, Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank.

“But even if you strongly believe in that view, you have to acknowledge that there is room for a cyclical rally in the currency.”

“And that is exactly what is happening now. Part of it reflects the fact that expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes were priced in more slowly than those for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, whose outlooks shifted from the start of the war. In addition, equity markets — particularly since the conflict began — have seen a clear allocation shift in favor of the United States,” she added.

Weekly data from the US market regulator showed investors hold their largest bullish position in the dollar against major currencies since 2019, valued at approximately $36.4 billion, according to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange.

Focus turns to the ECB Forum and US jobs data

Investors are awaiting the monthly US employment report later this week, which could provide a clearer picture of whether markets are accurately pricing the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year.

Money markets currently fully price in one rate increase this year, with roughly a 50% probability of a second hike.

In other currency markets, sterling traded near $1.321, above the seven-month low reached last week, ahead of a major speech later today by Andy Burnham, one of the leading contenders to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister.

The Japanese yen traded at ¥161.83 per dollar, little changed on the day and close to its weakest level in 40 years.

The Swiss franc edged higher for a third consecutive session to 0.8092, remaining near an 11-month low reached last week.

The European Central Bank’s annual forum begins on Monday with opening remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Investors will then focus on Wednesday’s key policy panel featuring Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, looking for further clues on his outlook for US interest rates and monetary policy.

Gold prices dropped more than 1% in European trading on Monday, resuming losses after a two-session rebound and moving closer once again to retesting the key $4,000-an-ounce level. The decline was partially limited by a weaker US dollar following the agreement between the United States and Iran to halt hostilities and resume technical negotiations.

Markets are closely monitoring this week’s European Central Bank Forum as investors seek fresh clues that could reshape expectations for global interest rate trends during the remainder of the year.

Investors are also awaiting a series of key US labor market reports this week, which could provide crucial evidence regarding the likelihood of additional US interest rate hikes in 2026.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold fell 1.2% to $4,039.48 an ounce, from an opening level of $4,089.04, after reaching an intraday high of $4,089.04.

• At Friday’s settlement, gold gained 1.55%, marking a second consecutive daily advance as it continued to recover from a seven-month low of $3,959.49 an ounce.

• Gold prices declined 1.6% last week, recording a fourth consecutive weekly loss as selling pressure continued to dominate precious metals markets amid the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell more than 0.2% on Monday, extending losses for a third straight session and reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

The decline comes as military tensions between the United States and Iran eased in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides agreeing to resume technical negotiations under the previously established 60-day roadmap.

Iran war developments

• The United States and Iran have halted hostilities, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following weekend clashes.

• The United States carried out strikes against Iranian targets in response to attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Gulf states condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Israel announced that it had resumed attacks on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

• Technical negotiations are scheduled to resume on Tuesday in Doha, with both sides focusing on disputes related to the Strait of Hormuz, particularly freedom of navigation and the management framework for the maritime corridor.

European Central Bank Forum

Markets are closely watching this week’s annual European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, as investors reassess the outlook for global monetary policy amid lower oil prices and continued volatility in equity markets.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will open the forum on Monday with a keynote speech, while a high-level panel discussion is scheduled for Wednesday featuring Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh alongside several major central bank governors.

US interest rates

• According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently price a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 30%.

• Markets also assign a 20% probability that rates will remain unchanged through December, while the probability of a 25-basis-point increase stands at 80%.

• Investors will continue monitoring incoming US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials to reassess those expectations.

• A series of highly important US labor market reports will be released this week. Job openings data for May will be published on Tuesday, followed by the ADP private employment report for June on Wednesday. Weekly jobless claims and the official June employment report are both due on Thursday.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the United States and Iran returned to exchanging military strikes over the weekend, with reports of new attacks from both sides, raising questions about how long oil prices can remain at current low levels and increasing uncertainty surrounding inflation and broader interest rate expectations.

Waterer added that gold could return to the $5,000-an-ounce level this year, but such a move would likely require a sustained easing of geopolitical tensions, a lasting decline in oil prices back to pre-war levels to reduce inflationary pressures, and continued weakness in the US dollar.

SPDR

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by approximately 2 metric tons on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive daily decline and bringing total holdings down to 1,005.08 metric tons, the lowest level since September 24, 2025.

The euro fell in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, resuming losses after a two-day recovery against the US dollar and moving closer once again to its lowest levels in 13 months, as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East followed military exchanges between the United States and Iran.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the opening speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, with investors looking for fresh signals on the outlook for European interest rates during the remainder of the year.

The Price

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell around 0.1% against the US dollar to $1.1379, from an opening level of $1.1389, after touching an intraday high of $1.1393.

• The euro ended Friday’s session up 0.1% against the dollar, marking a second consecutive daily gain as it continued to recover from a 13-month low of $1.1325.

• The euro lost around 0.75% against the dollar last week, posting a second straight weekly decline amid renewed concerns over a widening interest rate gap between Europe and the United States.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose around 0.1% on Monday, resuming gains after a two-session pause driven by correction and profit-taking from a 13-month high, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance was supported by demand for the dollar as a preferred alternative investment, particularly after renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran following attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on several vessels.

Iran war developments

• The United States and Iran have halted hostilities, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following weekend clashes.

• The United States carried out strikes against Iranian targets in response to attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Gulf states condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Israel announced that it had resumed attacks on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

• Technical negotiations are scheduled to resume on Tuesday in Doha, with both sides expected to focus on disputes related to the Strait of Hormuz, particularly freedom of navigation and the management framework for the maritime corridor.

European interest rates

• Reports: The European Central Bank is considering pausing monetary policy normalization in July if energy prices remain at current levels.

• Money markets currently price the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in July at around 30%.

• Investors are awaiting additional eurozone data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth to reassess those expectations.

Christine Lagarde

At 17:30 GMT, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the opening address at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.

The speech could provide further insight into inflation developments across the eurozone and the ECB’s outlook for interest rates during the remainder of the year.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Monday against a basket of major and minor currencies, resuming losses that were briefly halted on Friday against the US dollar. The currency is close to touching a two-year low, which sits just one point away from its weakest level since 1986, a move that could prompt Japanese authorities to intensify warnings over excessive foreign-exchange moves or even intervene directly to support the local currency if pressure continues.

Market pricing for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in July remains weak, leaving investors awaiting further data on developments in the world’s fourth-largest economy for new signals that could lead them to reassess those expectations.

The Price

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The US dollar rose around 0.1% against the yen to ¥161.86, from an opening level of ¥161.71, after touching an intraday low of ¥161.71.

• The yen ended Friday’s session up 0.1% against the dollar, its first gain in five sessions, as part of a recovery from a two-year low of ¥161.94, which stands just one point away from the 40-year low of ¥161.95.

• The yen lost 0.3% against the dollar last week, marking a second consecutive weekly decline amid renewed concerns over the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose around 0.1% on Monday, resuming gains that had paused for two sessions as part of a correction and profit-taking from a 13-month high, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The rise came amid buying of the dollar as the preferred alternative investment, especially after renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran following attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on several vessels.

Iran war developments

• The United States and Iran have halted hostilities, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following weekend clashes.

• The United States carried out strikes targeting Iranian sites in response to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeting several vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Gulf states condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Israel announced that it had renewed attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

• Technical negotiations are scheduled to resume on Tuesday in Doha, with both sides focusing on disputes related to the Strait of Hormuz, particularly freedom of navigation and the mechanism for managing the maritime corridor.

Japanese authorities

Japanese authorities are closely monitoring movements in the currency market, especially as the yen approaches its weakest levels in 40 years after breaching the key ¥160-per-dollar threshold, which is widely viewed as a red line that could prompt renewed intervention to support the currency.

Last week, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama held an online meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amid growing concerns over sharp currency volatility.

According to sources cited by Reuters, the meeting focused on proposed policies to address the yen’s historic weakness, including possible intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Katayama stressed that government authorities are fully prepared and ready to take decisive action and intervene directly in the foreign exchange market at any time to protect the yen from speculative moves.

Japanese interest rates

• A summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s June monetary policy meeting, published last week, showed that some board members called for additional monetary tightening to move the central bank’s benchmark interest rate toward levels considered neutral for the economy.

• Market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its July meeting currently remains below 25%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting more data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth in Japan.