Years before trade wars and tariffs erupted, China had already secured industrial dominance through السيطرة on the rare earth supply chain — a strategic reality that has pushed the United States and its allies to pledge more than $8.5 billion today in an effort to regain control over this critical industry.

Over the past two decades, as global manufacturing expanded, rare earth processing gradually disappeared from Western supply chains due to high capital costs, technical complexity, and limited short-term profitability. China, however, maintained and systematically expanded its capabilities while others pulled back.

Libby Sterenheim, CEO of REE Alloys, said China did not win simply through mining, but by building the entire ecosystem — separation, refining, metal production, and magnet manufacturing — in a fully integrated way. As others exited the sector, control effectively became uncontested.

She added that North America lost control of the most critical stage: converting oxides into usable metals and alloys. According to Sterenheim, her company is currently the only one in North America capable of refining heavy rare earths and producing alloys and magnets, while competitors remain years away from commercial production.

The Real Bottleneck: Conversion

To make rare earth materials usable in motors, magnets, and defense systems, they must be converted into metals and alloys. This stage — rather than mining itself — determines who truly controls the supply chain.

REE Alloys is working in partnership with the Saskatchewan Research Council to rebuild conversion capacity within North America, allowing materials to remain within Western supply chains until they become finished defense-ready products.

The company has also signed a long-term, non-binding supply agreement with Altyn Group, linked to the Kokbulak project in Kazakhstan, where rare earth-containing materials — including dysprosium and terbium — are extracted from existing iron ore operations.

Ohio Facility and Defense Production

The company operates a facility in Euclid, Ohio, which it describes as the only industrial-scale site in North America capable of converting heavy rare earth materials into metals and alloys. The site is already producing specialized materials for US government clients.

These developments come as new US regulations set to take effect in 2027 aim to restrict the use of Chinese rare earth materials in defense programs and federally supported manufacturing.

Official US Response

Washington held talks this week with allied countries to reduce China’s grip on critical mineral supply chains, reflecting a shift from industrial competition toward national security priorities.

China has already used export restrictions as leverage. In late 2025, it imposed a direct ban on exporting certain materials and processing technologies linked to military applications. Earlier, in 2010, China restricted exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, causing major supply disruptions.

In response, the US Department of Defense has activated authorities under the Defense Production Act to support domestic processing, investing in companies such as MP Materials to expand local production of metals and magnets.

The US government has also launched a $12 billion initiative to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals, including rare earth elements, lithium, nickel, and cobalt, aiming to reduce reliance on China and secure supply for defense and advanced technology sectors.

A Race Against Time

While government action continues through policy channels and long-term projects, REE Alloys argues that it is already operating at the most sensitive stage of the chain — conversion into metals and alloys — where real control lies.

According to the company, building similar facilities requires years of permitting, financing, and qualification with defense clients, making short-term competition nearly impossible.

Copper prices edged lower in Thursday trading, slightly pulling back from yesterday’s gains that were supported by supply-demand fundamentals, rising tariff concerns, and weakness in the US dollar. Even with the modest decline, copper remains on track to record a seventh consecutive monthly gain — the longest rally in 15 years.

Prices had reached a record high on January 29. Although they eased slightly afterward, several factors have since revived volatility and uncertainty in the market.

Among these factors was the seasonal slowdown in base metals trading during China’s Lunar New Year holiday, when manufacturing and construction activity typically slows, leading to a temporary drop in demand for industrial commodities.

Since China is the world’s largest consumer of copper, weaker activity in key industrial sectors weighed on prices during recent weeks.

US Supreme Court Decision and Tariff Shifts

At the end of last week, the US Supreme Court ruled to cancel the global tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in 2025.

While the ruling did not affect the existing 50% tariffs on US imports of raw copper, it impacted duties on other goods from countries such as China and India.

For China, tariffs are expected to decline from 32% to 24%, potentially supporting industrial demand. However, uncertainty continues to dominate global markets.

After the ruling, Trump announced the reintroduction of 10% tariffs using alternative mechanisms, later raising them to 15%, with the possibility of keeping them in place for up to 150 days before seeking congressional extension. The move may face political resistance ahead of midterm elections in November.

Market Impact and Supply-Demand Dynamics

The uncertainty has increased speculation that tariffs on copper could be extended sooner than expected, potentially accelerating duties on refined copper products.

When the US administration first imposed copper tariffs in August 2025, it indicated that tariffs on refined products would not be introduced before 2027 or 2028.

Price Movements

Recent gains were driven by a combination of restocking in China, tariff concerns, and a weaker US dollar. Prices rose 2.8% on Tuesday to $13,228 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, climbing back above $6 per pound in US trading.

Prices also increased on the Shanghai Metals Market, where the benchmark cathode copper price rose by $119.77 per metric ton to $13,104.73 on Wednesday.

However, in today’s US session, May copper futures declined 0.4% to $6.01 per pound by 15:47 GMT.

The cryptocurrency market staged a broad recovery on Wednesday, led by a strong rally in Bitcoin that pushed the digital asset back toward the $70,000 level — a price zone that has acted as firm resistance since it was lost earlier this month.

Bitcoin rose about 8% during the session, while momentum extended across the wider market. Ethereum gained 12%, XRP climbed roughly 8%, and Solana jumped 13%, reflecting a renewed appetite for risk across digital assets.

Approaching $70,000 as Altcoins Outperform

Market experts believe the rebound may be largely driven by buy-the-dip activity following an extended period of weakness. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said the upward move likely reflects strong bargain-hunting after the recent selloff.

She added that a decisive return above the $70,000 level for Bitcoin could shift the broader market narrative and help restore confidence after weeks of pressure.

Recent trading patterns also suggest a change in investor positioning. While demand for cryptocurrencies in the US had cooled in recent weeks, capital now appears to be rotating toward altcoins, as reflected in the stronger performance of Ethereum, XRP, and Solana compared with Bitcoin over the past 24 hours.

Daniel Rees-Faria, CEO of Zerostack, noted that Bitcoin is increasingly trading within the context of the broader financial system, explaining that tightening liquidity conditions often lead to higher volatility. In such an environment, assets like Solana — which he described as generating “real yield” — may prove more resilient than tokens that previously relied mainly on momentum.

Is a Market Bottom Forming?

Despite the rebound, some analysts warn against viewing it as a definitive turning point. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FXPro, compared the current environment to 2022, when a sharp decline was followed by a prolonged period of sideways movement before a sustainable recovery emerged.

He noted that Bitcoin’s recovery after the 2022 سقوط took more than a year to surpass previous highs, suggesting that patience may be required again.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, offered a more balanced perspective, arguing that the most severe phase of downside pressure may already be behind the market.

Among the supportive signals he highlighted:

• Bitcoin trading near its 200-week moving average, a historically significant technical level.

• Price approaching its “realized price,” which reflects the average cost basis for holders.

• More than half of circulating supply currently held at a loss.

• The Relative Strength Index reaching levels often associated with capitulation.

• Multiple on-chain indicators suggesting the potential formation of a market bottom.

Even so, Thorn warned that market bottoms typically take time to develop, and a prolonged period of sideways movement remains possible. He also noted that any weakness in equity markets could renew pressure on digital assets, especially in the absence of a strong catalyst to trigger a sustained rally.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after US crude inventories recorded their largest increase in three years, alongside signs of weakness in the physical market, as traders assessed whether talks between the United States and Iran could prevent a military conflict that may threaten supply.

Brent crude futures declined to $70.03 per barrel, down 82 cents or 1.16% by 10:21 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $64.63 per barrel, losing 79 cents or 1.2%.

Sharp Rise in US Inventories

Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude inventories rose by 16 million barrels last week — the largest weekly increase in three years — adding direct pressure on prices.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said weakness in the physical North Sea market is weighing on prices, noting that markets are closely watching the outcome of the third round of US-Iran talks scheduled for Thursday. The North Sea physical market serves as the pricing benchmark for Brent crude futures.

Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain up about 15% since the start of 2026, as fears of military escalation between Washington and Tehran have outweighed expectations of a potential supply surplus.

Diplomatic and Military Developments

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are set to meet an Iranian delegation in Geneva.

Brent prices had reached their highest level since July 31 on Monday after Washington increased its military presence in the Middle East to pressure Iran into negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear and missile programs.

Any prolonged conflict would threaten supply from Iran — OPEC’s third-largest producer — in addition to exports from other countries in the region.

OPEC+ Moves and Saudi Plans

Sources familiar with the matter said OPEC+ may consider increasing production by around 137,000 barrels per day in April, preparing for peak summer demand and aiming to benefit from price support driven by geopolitical tensions.

Other sources indicated that Saudi Arabia is boosting oil production and exports as part of a contingency plan in case a potential US strike on Iran disrupts Middle Eastern supplies.

Risk Premium

Analysts at ING said the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks will be critical in determining price direction. They added that any constructive agreement could lead markets to reduce a risk premium estimated at around $10 per barrel, which they believe is currently priced into oil markets.