The New Zealand dollar rose on Thursday against most major currencies following the release of economic data.

Government data published earlier today showed that New Zealand’s quarterly inflation expectations for Q3 2025 came in at 2.28%, slightly down from the previous reading of 2.29%.

As of 21:00 GMT, the New Zealand dollar climbed 0.5% against the US dollar to trade at 0.5959.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar also advanced against its US counterpart, rising 0.2% to 0.6518 as of 21:00 GMT.

US Dollar

The US dollar index was flat at 98.1 as of 20:44 GMT, after hitting a high of 98.4 and a low of 97.9 earlier in the session.

On the policy front, President Trump announced late Wednesday the imposition of a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, with an exemption for companies that "manufacture within the United States."

“We will impose very large tariffs on chips and semiconductors,” Trump said Wednesday. “But the good news for companies like Apple is: if you manufacture in the United States or commit without a doubt to manufacturing in the US, you won’t face any tariffs.”

Meanwhile, government data showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US rose to 226,000 for the week ending August 2, up by 7,000 from the previous week and above analyst expectations of 221,000.

Kuwait’s Oil Minister Tareq Al-Rumi said on Thursday that the country expects oil prices to stay below $72 per barrel in the near future, as one of OPEC’s top producers continues to assess market conditions.

Brent crude was trading around $67 per barrel on Thursday morning.

Al-Rumi added that Kuwait, alongside OPEC, is closely monitoring the market as well as statements coming from US President Donald Trump and his administration.

“We are monitoring the market through OPEC, in terms of supply and demand, and we’re watching President Trump’s remarks,” the minister told Reuters.

He pointed to two recent statements and actions from Trump that could serve as strong catalysts for upcoming oil market moves — either upward or downward.

On Wednesday, President Trump stated that “significant progress” had been made during a “highly productive meeting” between his special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At the same time, however, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, clearly targeting New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil. The move raises total US tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the highest rate currently applied by Washington to any country.

The new 50% tariffs are scheduled to take effect 21 days after August 6.

Al-Rumi said Kuwait and OPEC are keeping a close eye on all these developments. According to Kuwait, the oil market remains healthy, with demand growing at a “moderate” pace.

In a related statement, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), told Reuters and a group of journalists that Kuwait is currently producing 2.548 million barrels per day, in line with its current OPEC+ quota.

“Our production capacity is much higher than that, and we deploy it when needed,” the Kuwaiti executive added.

Next month, the OPEC+ alliance is set to conclude the final phase of its largest-ever production cut, after agreeing over the weekend to raise output by 547,000 barrels per day in September.

The final layer of cuts — totaling 1.66 million barrels per day — is still in place through late 2026, unless OPEC+ decides market conditions justify releasing additional supply sooner.

Most US stock indexes turned lower on Thursday — with the exception of the Nasdaq — as tech stocks rebounded and investors continued to track Trump’s latest tariff announcements.

Late Wednesday, former President Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, while exempting companies that “manufacture within the United States.”

Apple shares rose 2% after the iPhone maker unveiled plans to invest an additional $100 billion into American businesses and suppliers over the next four years — on top of a previous pledge in February to spend $500 billion.

Trump stated on Wednesday: “We’re going to impose very large tariffs on chips and semiconductors. But the good news for companies like Apple is: if you are manufacturing in the US — or fully committed to doing so — no tariffs will be imposed on you.”

Government data showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose to 226,000 for the week ending August 2, an increase of 7,000 from the prior week and above analyst expectations of 221,000.

In market action, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% (or 320 points) to 43,870 by 16:41 GMT. The broader S&P 500 index slipped 0.1% (or 7 points) to 6,337, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% (or 86 points) to 21,255.

Nickel prices edged higher on Wednesday, supported by a stronger US dollar against most major currencies and mixed market expectations for the industrial metal.

UBS analysis last week indicated that the global nickel market is likely to remain in surplus until 2026, despite recently announced production cuts.

The report noted a “significant surplus” from 2022 through 2024, adding that current prices and market behavior already reflect weak fundamentals. Analysts do not anticipate a near-term demand recovery, citing declining stainless steel output and limited prospects for battery demand growth.

On the supply side, some progress toward rebalancing the market was made in 2024, with around 250,000 tonnes in production cuts and project delays totaling another 140,000 tonnes. Still, UBS believes these measures are insufficient, as Indonesia continues to add new production capacity despite some limitations in ore availability.

Although global nickel demand has shown relative resilience compared to other base metals in recent years, oversupply has led to output reductions in the stainless steel sector in both China and Indonesia. UBS expects nickel demand to grow by 4–5% annually between 2025 and 2028, down from 9% annually between 2021 and 2024.

While UBS forecasts smaller surpluses in the 2025–2028 period, they are still expected to be “large enough to drive up refined nickel inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME).” The report also pointed out that the current nickel price sits in the upper quartile (75%) of the global cost curve — a level that has historically offered price support — but warned that nickel has traded within the cost curve range for extended periods before.

Second Half Outlook

Analysts now anticipate a significant rebound in nickel prices during the second half of 2025, driven by a shortage of nickel ore and mine closures in Indonesia.

In mid-June 2025, the Indonesian government revoked mining licenses for several nickel mines after discovering they were operating on protected islands, where mining is legally prohibited. Though these four mines represented a small share of Indonesia’s total annual output, they accounted for a large portion of the country's remaining high-grade nickel ore reserves.

Even before the mining halt, declining ore quality — particularly medium and high-grade deposits — had already begun to weigh on Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) production.

Separately, EU member states agreed to a sweeping overhaul of customs procedures to align with digital and global trade developments. However, the first phase of changes will not take effect until 2028 and will initially apply only to e-commerce firms, as part of a long-term plan to reform the EU’s customs framework.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.3 by 16:20 GMT, reaching a session high of 98.4 and a low of 97.9.

In trading, spot nickel prices climbed 0.5% to $15,007 per tonne by 16:30 GMT.