The Canadian dollar edged lower against its US counterpart on Monday after data showed that speculative bearish bets against the currency had risen to their highest level this year.

The Canadian dollar, known as the loonie, fell 0.1% to C$1.4210 per US dollar, or 70.37 US cents, after trading in a range between C$1.4176 and C$1.4217.

The currency touched a 14-month low last Wednesday at C$1.4248 per US dollar.

Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed that speculators increased their bets against the Canadian dollar to the highest level since December.

Net non-commercial short positions reached 146,792 contracts as of June 23, up from 132,901 contracts a week earlier, surpassing net short positions on the Japanese yen.

Canadian economic data in focus for Bank of Canada policy outlook

Canadian gross domestic product data, due Tuesday, is expected to show the economy expanded by 0.4% in April.

The figures could help shape expectations for the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy path.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to participate on Wednesday in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking.

“With the Bank of Canada holding in wait-and-see mode at a 2.25% policy rate, and viewed as more patient than the hawkish US Federal Reserve, the Canadian dollar is likely to remain hostage to oil moves and risk sentiment,” strategists at Monex Europe said in a note.

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz weigh on Canadian dollar moves

Oil, one of Canada’s most important exports, rose 2.3% to $70.79 a barrel after reciprocal attacks between the United States and Iran highlighted the fragility of their temporary peace agreement, while cautious hopes for a continued recovery in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz limited gains.

“We believe a reliable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would reduce investor demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, but would cap gains in the Canadian dollar through lower oil prices,” Monex Europe strategists said.

The Canadian 10-year bond yield was little changed at 3.384%, remaining near the lower end of its trading range since March.

Major Wall Street indexes moved higher on Monday as investor sentiment improved following a reduction in Middle East tensions after the United States and Iran agreed to halt recent attacks, while Comcast shares surged after the company unveiled plans to split into two separate publicly traded entities.

Pause in hostilities

Technical teams from the United States and Iran working on the implementation of a temporary peace agreement are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days, according to a source who spoke to Reuters on Monday, after reciprocal strikes over the weekend threatened the fragile truce.

While diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have eased investor concerns, sharp rhetoric and intermittent tensions in the region have at times raised fears of broader escalation that could push oil prices higher.

“There have been several false starts in peace negotiations,” said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management. “I expect most market participants to remain in a wait-and-see mode through the rest of this week.”

Market performance

As of 9:41 a.m. Eastern Time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 280.09 points, or 0.54%, to 52,154.45.

The S&P 500 gained 58.50 points, or 0.80%, to 7,413.02, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 339.77 points, or 1.34%, to 25,637.39.

Eight of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors traded higher, led by communication services, which climbed 2.6%.

Comcast shares jumped 9.8% after the media and cable company announced plans to separate into two independent publicly traded companies by spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky through a tax-free distribution.

AI concerns add to uncertainty

The upcoming earnings season is expected to be the next major test for equity markets after a strong performance so far this year.

“The S&P 500’s 21% gain over the past 12 months has been entirely earnings-driven, making second-quarter 2026 results a critical factor in determining the market’s next direction,” said Ben Snider, Chief US Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs.

He added that concerns surrounding artificial intelligence spending have introduced a new layer of uncertainty into the market outlook.

Last week’s selloff weighed heavily on investor favorites such as semiconductor stocks and the so-called Magnificent Seven, pushing both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to weekly losses. In contrast, the Dow Jones proved more resilient, gaining 0.6% over the week.

On Monday, however, the information technology sector rose 0.8% and was on track to end a five-session losing streak.

Investors are also expecting at least one Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year to contain inflation, and those expectations could be reassessed later this week following the release of June US employment data.

SpaceX shares gained 2.3% after Nasdaq announced that the recently listed company will join the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7.

Meanwhile, shares of Martin Marietta Materials fell 5% after the company announced a $13.5 billion merger with limestone supplier Lhoist North America.

Veridian Therapeutics jumped 6.6% after the US Food and Drug Administration approved its treatment for thyroid eye disease.

Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by 1.15-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange and by 1.47-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 recorded no new 52-week highs or lows, while the Nasdaq Composite likewise posted no new annual highs or lows.

As copper prices approach record highs, the value of the metal to copper smelters has collapsed due to an unprecedented decline in treatment and refining charges.

Companies that convert mined copper concentrates into refined metal are now increasingly dependent on by-products generated during the processing stage to maintain financial viability.

Secondary products such as gold, silver, and sulfuric acid have become nearly as important as copper itself in determining profitability for most smelters.

This unusual situation stems from China’s expansion of copper smelting capacity at a pace far exceeding the ability of global mines to supply raw materials.

The imbalance is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. Mine production remains constrained, and despite discussions about cutting Chinese smelter output, the country’s refined copper production continues to rise.

The shift carries major implications for the copper concentrate market and the future structure of global metals production.

Treatment charges fall to zero

Annual benchmark copper treatment and refining charges fell from $80 per metric ton and 8 cents per pound in 2024 to $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound in 2025, before effectively dropping to zero this year.

Spot treatment charges have remained negative for several months, meaning smelters are effectively paying mining companies for the right to process copper concentrates.

As a result, headline treatment charges have become less relevant, while the value of precious metals contained within concentrates and sulfur that can be extracted and converted into sulfuric acid has become increasingly important.

Higher gold and silver prices have helped offset the loss of one of the smelting industry's primary revenue streams.

Sulfuric acid has provided even greater support, particularly after disruptions to Gulf supplies caused by the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Some Chinese smelters have even begun processing larger volumes of pyrite, commonly known as “fool’s gold,” simply to benefit from its higher sulfur content.

Consultancy CRU estimates that treatment charges accounted for 39% of total smelter revenue in 2018. Last year, however, the largest revenue sources became “free metal” gains and by-product credits, particularly sulfur, contributing roughly 50%–53% and 25%–27% of revenues, respectively.

“Free metal” refers to the difference between the payable metal content in raw materials and the actual recovery rate achieved by smelters for copper and other metals.

Has the era of benchmark pricing ended?

What makes this transformation in the copper smelting industry particularly remarkable is how quickly it has occurred.

The shift reflects both the speed and scale of China’s investment in processing capacity.

China’s refined copper output rose 8% year over year to 14.72 million metric tons in 2025, while global mine production increased by only 1%, according to the International Copper Study Group.

China’s Copper Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT), which includes the country’s largest producers, agreed in November to cut production by 10% this year in an effort to stop the collapse in treatment charges.

However, actual output increased 7.4% year over year between January and April 2026, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The rapid changes in the copper concentrate market have prompted participants to reconsider the industry’s reliance on annual benchmark agreements for pricing.

Chilean mining company Antofagasta has proposed shifting toward spot-market index pricing during its mid-year negotiations with Chinese smelters.

CSPT is expected to oppose the change, but without meaningful cuts to Chinese production, the gap between annual benchmark prices and spot-market realities is likely to widen further.

Only the strongest will survive

The key question now is whether the current smelter business model can remain sustainable over the medium term.

For smelters equipped with modern technology, strong precious-metal recovery capabilities, and established sulfuric acid sales agreements, the answer is likely yes.

CRU said the collapse in treatment charges has been “painful on paper but manageable in practice” for these operations.

However, the consultancy warned that the outlook is “far darker” for facilities with aging infrastructure, high fixed costs, or geographical disadvantages that make sulfuric acid marketing more difficult.

These smelters remain more dependent on treatment charges because they lack the competitive advantages enjoyed by newer facilities.

Many of these plants are located outside China, posing an additional threat to Western copper supply chains that are already under pressure.

Glencore has already placed its smelter in the Philippines into care-and-maintenance mode and only committed to maintaining operations at its Australian facilities after receiving a financial support package worth A$600 million (US$395 million) from federal and state governments.

Meanwhile, China accounted for roughly half of global refined copper production in 2025, compared with just 15% in 2005, and is expected to expand its share further this year.

Chinese smelters appear to understand that they are engaged in a battle in which only the most efficient and competitive operators will survive.

For the West, the challenge is that its smelting sector could become one of the biggest casualties of China’s fierce competition for raw materials and revenue streams in a copper concentrate market already suffering from a structural supply shortage.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $60,000 level on Monday after falling nearly 6% and closing below the key technical threshold during the previous session.

The modest recovery came as investor risk appetite improved following an agreement between the United States and Iran to halt recent attacks and resume negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, providing support for the broader cryptocurrency market.

However, institutional selling continued to weigh on the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $1.79 billion last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since late February.

US-Iran agreement eases pressure on risk assets

The United States and Iran agreed to halt recent hostilities in the Gulf and resume discussions regarding the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.

The development provided a modest boost to market sentiment, renewing hopes that a temporary peace agreement could be preserved after several days of retaliatory strikes had threatened its stability.

The easing of geopolitical tensions helped support risk-sensitive assets, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim the $60,000 level on Monday after a sharp selloff during the previous week.

Even so, investors remain cautious as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Any breakdown in negotiations or renewed military escalation between the two countries could weaken risk appetite and trigger another wave of selling in Bitcoin.

Institutional selling limits Bitcoin's rebound

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remained weak last week, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of $1.70 billion, marking the largest weekly withdrawal since late February.

Last week also marked the seventh consecutive week of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the longest streak of withdrawals since the launch of the products.

On a monthly basis, Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $4.06 billion in net outflows during June, marking a second consecutive month of withdrawals and the largest monthly outflow since the funds were introduced.

The data points to continued weakness in institutional demand and suggests that large investors have so far been unable to provide sufficient support for Bitcoin prices.

Should this trend continue during the current week, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure despite the recent recovery.