The Japanese yen declined in Asian markets on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, extending losses for the second consecutive day against the US dollar. The yen moved further away from its highest level in four weeks amid continued profit-taking and corrective movement.

The US dollar, meanwhile, continued to recover from its lowest levels in more than three years, supported by renewed buying interest from lower levels and ahead of the June employment report due before the Independence Day holiday in the United States.

Expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July have diminished following its latest meeting, with markets awaiting further economic data on inflation, wages, and unemployment in the world’s third-largest economy.

Price Outlook

The dollar rose against the yen by 0.2% to ¥143.91 on Thursday, up from the opening price of ¥143.64, after hitting a session low of ¥143.44.

The yen lost 0.2% against the dollar at Wednesday’s close, marking its first daily loss in three sessions, as traders locked in profits from the four-week high at ¥142.68.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose by 0.15% on Thursday, extending gains for a second session as the greenback continues to recover from a three-year low of 96.38. The rebound reflects sustained strength in the dollar against major and minor currencies.

Beyond bargain buying, the dollar gained further support from optimism surrounding a trade deal between the US and Vietnam, raising hopes of similar future agreements ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.

President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that Vietnam had signed a trade agreement with the US, potentially encouraging other countries to follow suit.

Despite the lack of detailed information, Trump stated that Vietnamese goods would face a 20% tariff, while trans-shipped goods from third countries via Vietnam would be subject to a 40% rate.

Chinana from Saxo Bank noted that attention now shifts to China’s response, given the direct targeting of trans-shipped goods with the higher tariff. He added that this move signals a clear reshaping of global supply chains, with the potential for further disruption ahead.

US Jobs

Global markets are closely watching the US Labor Department’s June jobs report, set for release on Thursday ahead of the July 4th holiday.

Data released Wednesday showed that US companies shed jobs in June for the first time since January 2022, prompting traders to adjust their expectations regarding the timing of potential Fed rate cuts.

Following the report, CME’s FedWatch tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July rose from 20% to 25%, while the odds of maintaining current rates dropped from 80% to 75%.

Japanese Interest Rates

Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in its July meeting remain below 40%.

Investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth in Japan before reassessing the likelihood of a rate move.

Soybean prices rose on Wednesday amid technical buying on the Chicago Board of Trade and bargain hunting activity.

Initial open interest rose by 15,303 contracts on Tuesday. No deliveries were issued overnight.

The national average cash soybean price (cmdtyView) rose by 7 cents to $9.88¾ per bushel. Soybean meal futures fell by $1.60 to $2.10 on the day, while soybean oil prices rose by 85 to 125 points.

An additional 927 July soybean meal contracts and 424 July soybean oil contracts were issued for delivery overnight. A fats and oils report released Tuesday afternoon showed that total soybean crush during May reached 203.7 million bushels, up 0.65% from April and 6.3% from the same month last year.

Total inventories stood at 1.876 billion bushels, down 5.06% from the previous month and 14.3% from May 2024. Brazilian soybean exports in June were estimated at 13.93 million metric tons, according to ANEC, up by 0.1 million tons from the prior estimate. StoneX estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 168.75 million metric tons, an increase of 0.5 million from the previous forecast.

Corn

As for trading, December corn futures rose 2.8% at the close to $4.33 per bushel.

Soybeans

November soybean futures settled up by less than 2% to $10.48 per bushel.

Wheat

September wheat futures rose 2.9% at the close to $5.64 per bushel.

Most cryptocurrencies rose on Wednesday following weak employment data in the United States, which fueled further speculation about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

ADP data showed that the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month, marking the first monthly decline since March 2023, while estimates had pointed to an increase of 100,000 jobs.

This data raised the probability of a Fed rate cut at the July meeting to 23.3%, up from 20% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

A Fed member stated yesterday that the US central bank would put a rate cut on the table for discussion and voting if there is clear evidence of a slowdown in labor market growth.

Ethereum

As for trading, Ethereum jumped 8.2% as of 21:05 GMT on CoinMarketCap to $2,600.1.

Gold prices rose on Wednesday amid a slight decline in the US dollar against most major currencies, following weak employment data that fueled further speculation about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

ADP data showed that the US private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month, marking the first monthly decline since March 2023, while estimates had pointed to an increase of 100,000 jobs.

This data raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July meeting to 23.3%, up from 20% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

A Fed member stated yesterday that the US central bank would put a rate cut on the table for discussion and voting if there is clear evidence of a slowdown in labor market growth.

Meanwhile, the dollar index fell slightly by less than 0.1% to 96.7 points as of 20:24 GMT, with a session-high at 97.1 points and a low at 96.6 points.

As for trading, spot gold prices rose 0.5% to $3,366.8 an ounce as of 20:26 GMT.