The Japanese yen weakened against a basket of major and minor currencies during Asian trading on Friday, resuming its losses against the US dollar after a brief recovery in the previous session as traders engaged in profit-taking activity.

Despite the latest decline, the Japanese currency remains on track to post its first weekly gain in two months, supported by a rebound from its lowest levels in 40 years and renewed warnings from Japanese officials over excessive movements in the foreign exchange market.

The Price

• USD/JPY rose 0.25% to ¥161.52 from an opening level of ¥161.10, after touching an intraday low of ¥160.92.

• The yen gained 0.9% against the dollar on Thursday, marking its first daily advance in four sessions and its strongest one-day gain since May, as traders bought the currency after it fell to a 40-year low of ¥162.84.

• Supported by bargain buying, the yen climbed to a two-week high of ¥160.62. The move was also fueled by speculation about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan in the foreign exchange market and weaker-than-expected US employment data.

Weekly Performance

As of Friday’s trading, the yen is up around 0.25% against the US dollar for the week and is on track to record its first weekly gain since May.

Japanese Authorities

The yen’s slide to a 40-year low has revived speculation that Japanese authorities could return to the market after spending a record ¥11.7 trillion ($73.5 billion) in April and May to support the currency against excessive volatility.

Investors remain alert to the possibility of intervention after Japanese officials shifted away from their usual strategy of signaling intervention in advance, opting instead for a more targeted approach aimed at increasing pressure on speculators and raising the cost of betting against the yen.

Toshihiro Nagahama, a government adviser and member of an official policy panel, said on Thursday that the Bank of Japan should continue raising interest rates gradually to help curb excessive weakness in the yen.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also reiterated on Friday that the government stands ready to respond appropriately to currency movements, renewing official warnings as traders monitor the possibility of intervention.

“Our position has not changed. We will respond appropriately whenever necessary,” Katayama told reporters, adding that Japan remains in close contact with US authorities regarding foreign exchange issues, including during US public holidays.

Views and Analysis

• Kristy Tan, Chief Global Investment Strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute, said intervention could slow the pace of the yen’s decline, curb excessive speculation, and signal policymakers’ concerns, but it would not fundamentally change market dynamics.

• Tan added that as long as investors can borrow cheaply in yen and invest in higher-yielding US assets, carry trades will continue to pressure the Japanese currency.

• Traders view Friday’s US market holiday as a potential opportunity for the Bank of Japan to intervene, as thinner liquidity conditions could amplify the impact of any currency-buying operation while reducing its cost.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Market pricing currently implies less than a 25% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its July meeting.

• Investors are awaiting additional data on inflation, wages, and unemployment in Japan to reassess those expectations.

XRP continued to advance on Thursday, trading above the $1.07 level after successfully holding support at $1.03, despite the heavy selling pressure that has dominated the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks.

The improvement came as investor appetite for risk assets recovered following reports that recently concluded talks between the United States and Iran in Doha had achieved “positive progress.”

US labor market data and the Federal Reserve

Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the US economy added 57,000 jobs last month, well below economists’ expectations for 110,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

The figures followed a report released on Wednesday showing that US private-sector job growth in June also came in below market expectations.

Following the data release, traders scaled back expectations for further monetary tightening. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 51% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September, down from 66% before the employment report, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and related risks had eased in recent weeks, while reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target.

On the geopolitical front, the United States and Iran concluded another round of indirect talks on Wednesday without clear signs of progress toward a permanent peace agreement. The ongoing uncertainty continued to support demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

According to Qatari mediators, progress was achieved on issues related to the memorandum of understanding, and both sides agreed to continue discussions.

Persistent outflows and declining retail participation

Despite the recent rebound, institutional interest in XRP remains weak, as reflected by two consecutive days of fund outflows.

Data from SoSoValue showed that XRP exchange-traded funds recorded nearly $2 million in outflows on Wednesday, following approximately $3 million in withdrawals on Tuesday.

The continued capital outflows suggest that caution and risk aversion remain dominant among investors, potentially limiting XRP’s ability to extend its recovery in the near term.

At the same time, retail participation continues to decline. Open interest in XRP futures fell to $2.29 billion on Thursday, compared with $2.31 billion the previous day.

This trend highlights weakening investor confidence in XRP’s short- and medium-term outlook. It also suggests that bearish traders remain willing to pay a premium to maintain short positions, while bullish investors are showing limited interest in opening new long positions.

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after Qatar announced “positive progress” in indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran, boosting hopes that regional tensions could ease further.

Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 23 cents to settle at $71.80 per barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery gained 11 cents to close at $68.69 per barrel.

A spokesperson for Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on social media that mediators from Qatar and Pakistan had concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha on Wednesday, adding that “positive progress” had been achieved on issues related to the memorandum of understanding between the two sides.

US President Donald Trump also told reporters on Wednesday that negotiations with Iran were proceeding well.

“They had very good meetings, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.

Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran began in Doha on Tuesday, with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner conducting discussions through Qatari mediators without holding direct meetings with Iranian officials.

Supply concerns ease as shipping activity recovers in the Strait of Hormuz

The renewed diplomatic efforts followed heightened tensions over the weekend that threatened a 60-day ceasefire agreement between the two countries after Iran attacked two commercial vessels, prompting retaliatory US strikes on targets inside Iran.

Investors are increasingly factoring in the possibility of lower geopolitical risk if negotiations continue to make progress, which could reduce concerns over disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

ING said markets remain optimistic that oil flows from the Gulf region will continue returning to normal despite the recent military escalation, helping explain why Brent crude recorded its worst quarterly performance since early 2020.

The bank added that shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has started to recover gradually.

According to ING, around 11 oil tankers passed through the strait on Tuesday, compared with a peak of 24 vessels recorded last week.

The firm also noted that inbound traffic into the Gulf has begun rising again, signaling growing confidence among shipowners in returning their tankers to Gulf trade routes.

A team of researchers in Germany has developed a highly efficient method to convert sunlight directly into hydrogen fuel, a breakthrough that could help solve some of the biggest challenges facing the green hydrogen industry and pave the way for cleaner industrial energy systems.

The new prototype, which relies on a type of solar cell commonly used in space applications, serves as a proof of concept that could eventually enable the large-scale production of completely carbon-free hydrogen fuel.

Scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems in Freiburg, Baden-Württemberg, developed a system that combines photovoltaic cells with proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis technology, allowing them to convert sunlight into hydrogen with an efficiency of 31.3%.

“Our new record demonstrates that hydrogen can be produced directly from sunlight with very high efficiency,” said Dr. Frank Dimroth.

The prototype uses III-V solar cells, which are currently the most efficient commercially produced solar cells available.

According to Interesting Engineering, these cells have long been used in spacecraft because of their exceptional performance and durability.

Direct solar-to-hydrogen production could reshape clean energy

Green hydrogen has long been viewed as one of the most promising solutions for hard-to-decarbonize industries such as steelmaking and maritime shipping.

Hydrogen can generate extremely high temperatures when burned, similar to thermal coal and heavy fuel oil, but its combustion produces only water vapor rather than carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

However, the environmental benefits of hydrogen depend entirely on how it is produced.

Most hydrogen currently used worldwide is gray hydrogen, which is produced using fossil fuels and therefore does little to reduce industrial carbon emissions.

Green hydrogen, produced using renewable energy, has been promoted for years as a key component of the clean energy transition. Yet real-world deployment has proven far more expensive and complex than initially expected.

A 2025 study titled *The Gap Between Green Hydrogen Ambitions and Implementation* found that fewer than 10% of green hydrogen projects announced in 2023 had actually entered operation.

The study, published in *Nature Energy* after tracking 190 projects over three years, showed that only 7% of the world’s announced production capacity was completed on schedule.

In many cases, directly using renewable electricity remains more efficient than converting that electricity into hydrogen first.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) warned in a 2022 report against the “indiscriminate use of hydrogen,” arguing that large-scale hydrogen production could divert renewable energy away from applications where it delivers greater efficiency.

Put simply, green hydrogen remains expensive and involves significant energy losses during production.

A potential game changer

The Fraunhofer Institute’s new approach could help address those concerns.

Instead of generating electricity through solar panels and then using that electricity to produce hydrogen, the system converts sunlight directly into hydrogen, eliminating the intermediate electricity-generation step altogether.

Because sunlight is an abundant and renewable energy source, the technology could eventually help decarbonize heavy industries without consuming clean electricity that may be needed elsewhere in the economy.

However, the technology remains at an early stage and requires further development before it can become commercially viable.

“The development is still in its early stages, and it is difficult to estimate how long it will take before we can deliver commercially competitive systems,” Dimroth said in a statement accompanying the study.

He added that the team is currently seeking investors to support a planned startup called ClearSun Energy, which will focus on advancing and commercializing the technology.

The breakthrough comes at a timely moment, as investor interest in green hydrogen has started to recover after several years of slowdown, supported by renewed concerns over global energy security following disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.